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Offline Stormchaser  
#21 Posted : 26 April 2014 15:03:42(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,737
Man
Location: West Hants

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-070429.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-120429.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

 

Interesting to see how much the NE Pacific has changed since those nasty summers of 2007 and 2012.

The Atlantic at 50*N is also vastly different.

 

I took at look at this after learning from GW (cheers to him) how a warmer but wetter than average April is a rare occurance for the Central England area, and was last seen in 1961, after which came a below average and rather wet July-Aug period.

While this year April might not manage to be wetter than average there, it certainly will be in areas not far south of the region; areas around Reading, for example, saw 20-30mm yesterday on top of totals that were quite similar for the month to date beforehand. My own total stands at just over 60mm, which is some 15mm above average.

With that in mind, I've started looking out for some similarities and differences to the two particularly cool and wet summers of the 2000s, largely out of interest, but also because it will help give a measure as to just how lucky or unlucky we are with whatever the summer does bring our way! 

Currently I'm approaching this on a very casual basis, as I have a lot of other work going on.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Whether Idle  
#22 Posted : 27 April 2014 09:06:11(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Posts: 8,169
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Location: Dover

A June of long sunny days and increasing heat.  No more than a gut feeling, July and August in a similar vein though less settled.  Overall a warm and dry and sunnier summer than average.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline picturesareme  
#23 Posted : 27 April 2014 10:10:12(UTC)
picturesareme

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 4,654
Location: pompey

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post
<p><a href="http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-070429.gif">http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-070429.gif</a></p>

<p><a href="http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-120429.gif">http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-120429.gif</a></p>

<p><a href="http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif">http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif</a></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interesting to see how much the NE Pacific has changed since those nasty summers of 2007 and 2012.</p>

<p>The Atlantic at 50*N is also vastly different.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>I took at look at this after learning from GW (cheers to him) how a warmer but wetter than average April is a rare occurance for the Central England area, and was last seen in 1961, after which came a below average and rather wet July-Aug period.</p>

<p>While this year April might not manage to be wetter than average there, it certainly will be in areas not far south of the region; areas around Reading, for example, saw 20-30mm yesterday on top of totals that were quite similar for the month to date beforehand. My own total stands at just over 60mm, which is some 15mm above average.</p>

<p>With that in mind, I've started looking out for some similarities and differences to the two particularly cool and wet summers of the 2000s, largely out of interest, but also because it will help give a measure as to just how lucky or unlucky we are with whatever the summer does bring our way!&nbsp;<img src="/twocommunity/Images/Emoticons/msp_smile.gif" alt=""></p>

<p>Currently I'm approaching this on a very casual basis, as I have a lot of other work going on.</p>

But how warm has this April been relative to average? I would have thought it's been around average.. with a good mix of mild & cool weather. But with some rather chilly nights, even on the warmer days.

This April seems to have lacked a spell of widespread low- mid 20's across the southern half of the UK (Birmingham southwards) that normally happen even if only for 2-3 days.

Has 23C even been reached 'officially'??

Offline Stormchaser  
#24 Posted : 27 April 2014 19:11:24(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,737
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Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: picturesareme Go to Quoted Post

But how warm has this April been relative to average? I would have thought it's been around average.. with a good mix of mild & cool weather. But with some rather chilly nights, even on the warmer days.

This April seems to have lacked a spell of widespread low- mid 20's across the southern half of the UK (Birmingham southwards) that normally happen even if only for 2-3 days.

Has 23C even been reached 'officially'??

 

Well it's been a truly bizarre April by some measures; there hasn't been a maximum above 21.0*C officially, yet the mean temperature stands as follows:

Met Office Hadley         10.0c.      Anomaly      2.3c.  Provisional to 26th

(From the CET thread...).

 

The biggest anomaly at my location is in the night time minima. While some runs of chilly nights have certainly occured, there have been more notable runs of mild nights, particularly the first few days of the month and on most days since last Monday.

I reckon the above average sea surface temperatures in the Channel has had something to do with this, though a tendency for tropical maritime air to get in on the act has perhaps had a bigger impact.

In the CET zone, I imagine the night/day maxima anomalies are closer together, as I have noticed clearer skies up there occuring more often. I reckon it still owes largely to a high number of mild+humid airmass imports... I have on many days found myself thinking that it felt more like mid-late May than whatever time in April.

The same unusual proportion of such airmasses also explains to a large extent the anomalously high rainfall across the southernmost counties - 76.6mm IMBY to 6pm today, which is 158% of the LTA for the month as a whole and just 16.3mm short of my record high value in April 2012 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#25 Posted : 27 April 2014 19:13:08(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,718
Location: South Cambridgeshire

No idea what to expect this year - like most years we need to get May out of the way - last year , well in my area anyway we had to get June out of the way and we had about 8 weeks or so of nice or even very nice weather.

It would be nice if we could get a bit longer period of decent weather.

 

Gavin S.

UserPostedImage

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline picturesareme  
#26 Posted : 27 April 2014 21:18:08(UTC)
picturesareme

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 4,654
Location: pompey

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post
<p>
Originally Posted by: picturesareme Go to Quoted Post
</p>

<p>But how warm has this April been relative to average? I would have thought it's been around average.. with a good mix of mild &amp; cool weather. But with some rather chilly nights, even on the warmer days. <br><br>This April seems to have lacked a spell of widespread low- mid 20's across the southern half of the UK (Birmingham southwards) that normally happen even if only for 2-3 days. <br><br>Has 23C even been reached 'officially'?? <br>

</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Well it's been a truly bizarre April by some measures; there hasn't been a maximum above 21.0*C officially, yet the mean temperature stands as follows:</p>

<p>Met Office Hadley&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10.0c.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Anomaly&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2.3c.&nbsp; Provisional to 26th</p>

<p>(From the CET thread...).</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The biggest anomaly at my location is in the night time minima. While some runs of chilly nights have certainly occured, there have been more notable runs of mild nights, particularly the first few days of the month and on most days since last Monday.</p>

<p>I reckon the above average sea surface temperatures in the Channel has had something to do with this, though a tendency for tropical maritime air to get in on the act has perhaps had a bigger impact.</p>

<p>In the CET zone, I imagine the night/day maxima anomalies are closer together, as I have noticed clearer skies up there occuring more often. I reckon it still owes largely to a high number of mild+humid airmass imports... I have on many days found myself thinking that it felt more like mid-late May than whatever time in April.</p>

<p>The same unusual proportion of such airmasses also explains to a large extent the anomalously high rainfall across the southernmost counties - 76.6mm IMBY to 6pm today, which is 158% of the LTA for the month as a whole and just 16.3mm short of my record high value in April 2012&nbsp;<img src="/twocommunity/Images/Emoticons/msp_ohmy.gif" alt=""></p>

Not even above 21C that is a strange... But then this is the British weather we're talking about 😃.

I guess maybe the south westerly muck has been rather like it is January as you say - kept temperatures mild but nothing spectacular.

I agree there have been some milder nights, even a few nights where I've dared to leave my chili plants in the outside grow houses overnight - but also some very chilly (no pun) nights...

Offline Stormchaser  
#27 Posted : 27 April 2014 22:38:38(UTC)
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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,737
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Location: West Hants

Thinking about the Atlantic SST pattern again for a moment, and what we've seen over the past few months, there may well be an interesting cycle going on across the Azores;

The strong SST gradient off the East U.S. Coast generates strong jet streaks and troughs further south than usual, which push into the region of the Azores.

Once clear, the (markedly) below average SSTs generated in that region encourage greater subsidence than usual, so enhancing the Azores High to produce a stronger cell than usual.

 

It is an interesting setup for the UK, because when those troughs move into the Azores, the Azores High has often either taken a hike NE across the UK, or travelled east into Europe, in both cases bringing some warm air to our shores. 

This last time, however, the high has lifted north, taking it to our NW while a trough sits across us. So we will always be at an elevated risk of seeing a 'stuck trough' situation as long as the pattern persists - hopefully it will remain the less frequent evolution!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Stormchaser  
#28 Posted : 16 May 2014 09:33:04(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,737
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Location: West Hants

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_anom_6600_600.png

Looking at this, it ties in well with the LRF models and forecasts that I've come across for the first part of the summer; they favour a trough near the Azores, and on the above map, the anomalies reveal an unusually strong SST gradient there - that should result in the jet stream tending to be stronger there, increasing the odds of seeing trough activity in that region.

 

This is compared to average, of course - the far western Atlantic is almost always the most favourable region for trough development, and remains the case this year, though the sharpest gradient seems to be further south than usual.

 

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_anom_7000_600.png

The UK seems to be taking a nice warm bath at the moment. A huge contrast to this time last year IIRC. If we can hold on to these anomalies or increase them through to August... prepare to swim in the seas 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline John S2  
#29 Posted : 16 May 2014 11:06:32(UTC)
John S2

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,759
Location: West Yorks/East Lancs

Some similarity with developing El Nino years 1972, 1977, 1982, 1991, 1997.
Therefore prediction/guess is:
June - southerly tracking lows, potential for a wet month in the SW. Possibly drier in some Northern parts of the UK
July - warm, some anticyclonic spells, occasional thundery breakdowns
August - probably the least interesting month, slightly drier than average

Edited by user 16 May 2014 11:15:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Saint Snow  
#30 Posted : 16 May 2014 13:56:12(UTC)
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Location: St Helens

This current nice/warm/sunny spell is the sort of weather that has people with no meteorological knowledge deciding we're going to have a great summer

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Online TimS  
#31 Posted : 17 May 2014 08:47:48(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,461
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post
This current nice/warm/sunny spell is the sort of weather that has people with no meteorological knowledge deciding we're going to have a great summer

100F and severe drought I reckon. I read it in the Express.

Some intriguing signs to our South that the overall NH circulation over Africa and Europe could be shifted poleward this summer:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa...cts/fews/ITCZ/itcz.shtml

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline moomin75  
#32 Posted : 19 May 2014 11:17:27(UTC)
moomin75

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Posts: 5,055

Mods. Can you please sticky this for members to put their summer thoughts in? It's high time we had a dedicated summer thoughts thread I believe, starting with my annual LRF.

 

Hi guys. Well here goes, my annual attempt (guess) at a summer forecast.

Mods, I have also put a copy of this in the Summer Thoughts thread, but I'd appreciate a thread of its own for the time being so people can comment on it. (Nice comments please)!! No need to sticky it, because the forecast will remain in the summer thoughts thread throughout.

This is purely how I anticipate the summer to pan out. I could be right, I could be wrong, I could be somewhere in between.

So here goes!

Moomin75’s 2014 summer forecast

Overview: Slightly warmer than average with average or slightly below average rainfall throughout all three months.

Much of this rainfall will be in June and July in the form of showers, many of these thundery in nature, with August perhaps drier than average overall.

My methodology is predominantly pattern matching, but I also consider the influence of the jet stream, which I believe will trend towards assuming a more normal “summer” position this year to the north of the UK.

With the jet in a more familiar position, I believe that the blocking patterns this year will lead to some very warm spells of summer weather at times, with less attacks of low pressure across central and southern parts.

Occasional attacks from the Atlantic, pushing against blocking to the north and east will result in some thundery breakdowns at times, most of these in central, southern and south western parts in June and July.

June 2014: I believe June 2014 will begin on an fairly settled note, but with occasional showers across the country, particularly central southern and south-western parts.

However, in any drier spells, it will still be very pleasant or warm, with perhaps the warmest conditions across the north and west of the UK.

The jet stream, however, will be tracking to the north of the UK, meaning that much of the rainfall will be sporadic in nature, with ridging from the Azores taking effect from the back end of the first week.

Into the second week of the month, I believe blocking will become re-established to our north and also to the east, allowing warm easterly or south-easterly winds to take hold across the UK.

Much of the driest, warmest weather will be closest to the high pressure, with Scotland and northern England faring best.

However, the whole of the UK will be under the influence of this blocking high as low pressure systems usually associated with early June are kept at bay.

Some south-western areas may be a little cloudier and damp at times, but elsewhere, showers will be few and far between.

After a coolish first week of June, I expect temperatures to pick up considerably during the second week, getting into the low to mid twenties nationwide, feeling very warm in long sunny spells.

Towards the end of June, I believe the weather will begin to turn unsettled from the south west, with spells of rain or showers across many parts of England.

However, it will remain warm or very warm with winds turning southerly or south westerly.

With a potential plume of very warm air from France and Spain, there is the possibility for it to become increasingly humid, with some torrential thunderstorms likely at times, particularly, but not exclusively across the south and the midlands.

Towards the north of England and Scotland, I believe it will stay predominantly dry, closer to the influence of high pressure.

Overall, I expect June’s CET to be AT LEAST 1 degree above average, sunshine at values to be at or above the 1971-2001 average in north, but perhaps average in the south closer to the Atlantic low pressure systems.

I anticipate June to be drier than normal in the north, but further south, overall precipitation should come in around average due to the heavy showers that are likely to affect the latter part of June.

July 2014: July will commence on a fairly settled note, although still with the prospect of heavy and thundery showers in the south.

However, I believe there will be a prospect that the Azores High will link with the large blocking high over Scandinavia to give much of the UK an extremely warm and dry period for the first two weeks of July after perhaps a few unsettled days at the start.

With winds tending to be coming from a southerly quarter, temperatures in the south could soar into the high twenties, and possibly low thirties at times, although not record-breakingly hot.

These high temperatures, combined with high humidity will be a recipe for afternoon and evening showers and storms, most of these centred around the southern half of the UK.

Further north, I believe it will be mainly dry and a little cooler here, but still temperatures easily into the twenties.

Around the middle of July, I anticipate a change to more mobile conditions with the jet stream diving south, and possibly a spell of rather unsettled weather across much of the UK as the Azores High loses its link with the Scandi high.

This will allow the Atlantic in for a while, and could lead to a week or so of cooler and more unsettled weather nationwide.

Much of the wettest and coolest weather will remain in the Midlands and south of the country, while further north, it will be cooler than the start of the month, but slightly drier than the south.

I don’t anticipate this spell of unsettled weather to last too long, and in the second half of July, I expect the jet to re-assume it’s northerly track, allowing the Azores high to again assert its influence across central and southern parts.

Conversely, I believe this will lead to a more unsettled and cooler second half of July in the north as blocking to the north east dissipates.

Temperatures will recover in the south to average, or perhaps slightly above average in the drier spells, but this will not prevent the monthly CET coming in around or slightly above the 1971-2001 average overall.

Overall, I expect July’s rainfall to be slightly above average.

Sunshine amounts will also be around average in the south, although further north, perhaps slightly below average amounts of sunshine and average rainfall due to an unsettled last two weeks of July.

August 2014: I anticipate August to be the best month of the summer nationwide, with some long dry spells, bucking the trend of some of the longer range models.

I believe the jet stream will be tracking way to the north of the UK, and this should allow ridging from the Azores to become more pronounced, bringing spells of sunshine and warmer weather at times across all areas.

However, I do anticipate further showers at times, many of these sparked by the warmth of the day, and overall, I believe the monthly CET will come out slightly above average overall in the south.

Further north, I anticipate again plenty of settled weather, but with a higher propensity of Atlantic weather systems to make inroads at times.

Summary: All in all, I expect a very reasonable summer for all – probably about on a par with last summer.

I make no apologies for this being a rather “boring” forecast with no massive deviations from what would be seen as a “normal” summer.

I believe there will be some significant warm or hot spells – more so than in the last six years, but nothing record-breaking, with perhaps the hottest part of the summer being in the first week or so of July.

This summer will be notable for occasional thundery breakdowns early in the summer (throughout June), with an unsettled spell in mid-July.

August will probably bring the most pleasant spell of the summer in terms of conditions and temperatures, and I envisage August to buck the trend of the last few years with some very pleasant summer weather.

I believe that the dry August will lead us into a very pleasant start to September, which has rapidly become an extended summer month in recent years.

As I always say guys, please don’t shoot the messenger. I compile these forecasts purely for fun, and as Matty H has always said, all LRF’s are a good deal of guess work.

If I’m right, it will be an achievement, (hopefully I won’t be far off the mark), but this is my genuine thoughts of what we will see during summer 2014.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Stormchaser  
#33 Posted : 24 May 2014 15:31:03(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,737
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Location: West Hants

Okay, so this is now the thread for summer outlooks.

We can wave goodbye to the spring thread, as we turn our minds to the season of longest days and in theory warmest ones too! 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20140501/2cat_20140501_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.png

Gavin will be doing a summer outlook tomorrow, but I can't resist posting a brief remark on the latest Met Office ensemble mean outlook;

It greatly resembles what CFS has been predicting quite consistently over the past month or two for June and to a lesser extent July (more variability has occured there), and indicates a summer season most stable to the north, least to the south, and with a tendency to bring continental air our way but also some room for a few notably cool spells of weather.

I actually see it as the most promising CFS/Met Office summer outlook for warmth (but not dry conditions!) that I've observed since I joined TWO in 2008.

 

I recommend watching Gavin's video outlook tomorrow for the details 

Edit: whether he agrees with me or not 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline roger63  
#34 Posted : 25 May 2014 06:47:51(UTC)
roger63

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Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC)
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Location: Winchester,Hampshire

Summer forecastThere are some spring indicators that give a clue to summer temperature type

Of the 35 springs(out of 140 total years) that were top quartile in temperature ie very warm, 63% were followed by warmer than average summers

However the devil is in the detail looking at combined temp /precipitation in spring very dry very warm types had a 78% chance  of being followed by a warmer than average summer,but the figure was only 50% for dry very warm

To date spring is certainly very warm but we wait May figures on rainfall before being able  to say if spring  as a whole was dry or very dry

Anyhow my forecast is for a warmer than average summer as a whole

Offline Stormchaser  
#35 Posted : 25 May 2014 12:06:40(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,737
Man
Location: West Hants

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_anom_6600_600.png

 

Looking at what the Met Office ensemble mean and the CFS model are predicting for the summer, I reckon the SST anomaly pattern is having a fair bit of influence;

 

When thinking about where the westerly flow might be anomalously strong, searching for regions where positive anomalies lie to the south of negative anomalies can give a reasonable guide, as that creates a stronger than usual temperature gradient, which then promotes a stronger thermal wind, which manifests as a stronger jet stream.

The same sort of theory goes for negative anomalies to the south of positive anomalies indicating areas of weaker westerlies and a weaker jet stream.

 

Applying that theory, a stronger than normal mid-Atlantic jet can be envisioned, with a weaker than normal jet in the NE Atlantic i.e. near to the UK.

Matching this with likely weather patterns, a tendency for mid-Atlantic troughs can be inferred, along with high pressure toward the UK. 

 

Due to the fact that SST patterns are continuously modified by surface weather, though usually only slowly, this predictor has the most validity for June, and the least for August.

Looking at the CFS June prediction, we see this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

Which has the mid-Atlantic trough and higher pressure towards the UK just as anticipated from the SST anomalies.

What about the western-Europe trough? Well, with high pressure over the UK or close to the NE, it does tend to be more unstable to the south of us - the two correspond well.

Obviously other driving forces come into play, though given the above, it is possible that they for the most part are linked in wiht the current SST anomaly pattern anway; one would not exist without the other.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20140501/2cat_20140501_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.png

This Met Office ensemble mean covers all three months of the summer, yet somewhat remarkably, a similar setup to what CFS shows for June is evident.

This gives hope for the CFS June pattern to hold on for a good part of July as well.

The slight positive anomaly to our NW is an inevitable by-product of having a mid-Atlantic trough, and yes, it could mean we see stronger high pressure towards Greenland at times, but it is signalled to be relatively infrequent compared to the blocking close to our N/NE, probably due to the Atlantic troughs tending to then develop across the NW Atlantic and push NE.

 

I'm hoping this angle on the outlook adds on nicely to Gavin's video outlook today 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Stormchaser  
#36 Posted : 25 May 2014 21:37:56(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,737
Man
Location: West Hants

https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1BX4QegGxzMc6xzlLpiPMpM1s_vNeDb0WEMGbce3X1nc/pub?w=960&h=720

I'm thinking this will appear too small here on the forum, so I've put in a link for clear viewing 

This is most valid for June, a bit less so for July, and not all that much for August to be honest.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline tallyho_83  
#37 Posted : 03 June 2014 22:04:12(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,399
Location: Devon

Not been on here for months!

It looks like we will be in for a wet summer but humid wet, possibly thundery with localised flooding!

What has been very noticeable for the past several months - even pre-Christmas are the night time temperatures. I have noticed the general trend towards milder nights both in winter and summer. We hardly had any cold frosty nights in spring and during with 2013/2014 was not exception. - Perhaps we are trending towards warmer and wetter weather in general - more humid air, more thunderstorms =flooding sadly! :-(

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline Gavin P  
#38 Posted : 04 June 2014 12:48:57(UTC)
Gavin P

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
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Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post



Perhaps we are trending towards warmer and wetter weather in general - more humid air, more thunderstorms =flooding sadly! :-(


 

Perhaps, but you only have to go back to late winter and spring 2013 to find a tremendous number of frosts.I remember even in April 2013 the ground was still frozen solid, such what the extent of the forst through that spring.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline roger63  
#39 Posted : 05 June 2014 07:33:27(UTC)
roger63

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Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,281
Man
Location: Winchester,Hampshire

The CEP figure for March was 104.2mm.This means for spring overall the classification type was Very Warm, Wet

Such springs have a 66:34 chance of being followed by summers that are warmer than average.

I will therefore stick with a  forecast of Summer 2014 being warmer than average.

Very warm,wet springs have a 66% chance of being follwed by a colder than average winter.However need to wait for summer ad autumn classification type before  going nap on winter!

Edited by user 05 June 2014 07:37:04(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Snow Hoper  
#40 Posted : 06 June 2014 12:20:49(UTC)
Snow Hoper

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Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,053
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

I suppose having told the locals and the family what I think, I should really put it down on virtual paper.

 

A very warm summer on offer with S/Ely dominated pattern. The first half may be close to or slightly above rainfall but a drier and better second half to come. Always better (depending on your tastes) the further towards the s/e you live.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

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