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Offline cultman1  
#1 Posted : 16 April 2014 17:30:03(UTC)
cultman1

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Location: Fulham London SW6

With certain newspapers predicting a hot summer I was wondering what the cognoscenti's thoughts on this forum are as to how summer 2014 may turn out ? I opened a discussion this time last year and it attracted a lot of response much of which proved to be most interesting . Over to you all!

Edited by moderator 24 May 2014 15:20:18(UTC)  | Reason: Title modification and stickied thread

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Offline Matty H  
#2 Posted : 16 April 2014 17:47:02(UTC)
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Like everyone else I haven't got a clue what will happen this summer.

What I'm hoping for is a dry one with the majority of any rain falling at night when I don't have to experience it. I would love it to be sickeningly hot and humid as well, but would settle for dry, warm and plenty of sunshine. Whether that's what will happen I have no idea.

Yate, Nr Bristol

Offline doctormog  
#3 Posted : 16 April 2014 17:53:14(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post
Like everyone else I haven't got a clue what will happen this summer.

What I'm hoping for is a dry one with the majority of any rain falling at night when I don't have to experience it. I would love it to be sickeningly hot and humid as well, but would settle for dry, warm and plenty of sunshine. Whether that's what will happen I have no idea.

^

What he said. BigGrin

Offline KevBrads1  
#4 Posted : 16 April 2014 17:57:24(UTC)
KevBrads1

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A thundery one please.

Good Spanish plumes and night time thunderstorms. Not had a decent one for years.

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Stormchaser  
#5 Posted : 16 April 2014 20:48:23(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

My early suspicion is that you might be in luck this year Kev; there is a very persistent pattern these days of blocking turning up to our NE a few times each month, and troughs tending to develop in the mid-Atlantic and either head N then NE over the block or stall out to our W/SW.

Such a setup in summer would likely allow the trough to invade at times, bringing supressed daytime maxima and rather a lot of rain, but on the other hand, troughs could quite often become stalled or slow moving somewhere west of Portugal, pulling up a decent plume for the UK to experience.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if summer 2014 was overall notably warmer than average but also wetter than average, perhaps by some margin.

 

While I don't hold much stock in analogues, 1993/1994 is an uncannily close match in terms of the Nov-Dec/Jan-Feb/Mar pattern sequence, and summer 1994 featured conditions similar to what I'm thinking of for this year.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline the converted  
#6 Posted : 17 April 2014 07:55:24(UTC)
the converted

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A decent summer with long heatwaves.

Offline Charmhills  
#7 Posted : 17 April 2014 08:06:08(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post
A thundery one please. Good Spanish plumes and night time thunderstorms. Not had a decent one for years.

Thundery would be good.

Duane.

Offline kendalian  
#8 Posted : 17 April 2014 11:03:27(UTC)
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I'll go for cool and unsettled

2 reasons for this...

1. We are in a long spell of above average temperatures. That will end sooner or later. This time last year we had a similar run of colder than average temperatures...that changed into summer.

2. The Great British weather normally lets us down, just when it's starting to get exciting. Remember all those charts from summer onwards predicting a severe winter

 

 

 

Offline speckledjim  
#9 Posted : 17 April 2014 11:19:40(UTC)
speckledjim

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Location: Thorner, West Yorkshire 112m asl

a sunny warm one would be great with the continued opportunity hopefully to break the CET record for the year.....
It is better to play than do nothing
Offline ARTzeman  
#10 Posted : 17 April 2014 11:52:10(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

June wet but warm... July dry ... August  sticky.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Gavin P  
#11 Posted : 17 April 2014 12:13:22(UTC)
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Cold and dry is a combination we've not had in summer for a very, very long time (1993 I think?)

This is NOT a forecast, BTW. Just an observation.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Medlock Vale Weather  
#12 Posted : 17 April 2014 12:45:30(UTC)
Medlock Vale Weather

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Location: Oldham

Just a hunch I predict an average British Summer, warmest of the weather towards the SE, coolest/wettest towards the North and West.

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 93 metres/305 feet above sea level.

Website: http://medlockweather.weebly.com

Weather station location: http://bit.ly/VI9CNu

What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/...wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Offline Saint Snow  
#13 Posted : 17 April 2014 12:54:55(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post
Like everyone else I haven't got a clue what will happen this summer. What I'm hoping for is a dry one with the majority of any rain falling at night when I don't have to experience it. I would love it to be sickeningly hot and humid as well, but would settle for dry, warm and plenty of sunshine. Whether that's what will happen I have no idea.

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Edicius81  
#14 Posted : 17 April 2014 13:03:29(UTC)
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Posts: 6,714

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

My early suspicion is that you might be in luck this year Kev; there is a very persistent pattern these days of blocking turning up to our NE a few times each month, and troughs tending to develop in the mid-Atlantic and either head N then NE over the block or stall out to our W/SW.

Such a setup in summer would likely allow the trough to invade at times, bringing supressed daytime maxima and rather a lot of rain, but on the other hand, troughs could quite often become stalled or slow moving somewhere west of Portugal, pulling up a decent plume for the UK to experience.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if summer 2014 was overall notably warmer than average but also wetter than average, perhaps by some margin.

 

While I don't hold much stock in analogues, 1993/1994 is an uncannily close match in terms of the Nov-Dec/Jan-Feb/Mar pattern sequence, and summer 1994 featured conditions similar to what I'm thinking of for this year.

This is my gut instinct also. 

Offline Stormchaser  
#15 Posted : 17 April 2014 20:27:24(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Cold and dry is a combination we've not had in summer for a very, very long time (1993 I think?)

This is NOT a forecast, BTW. Just an observation.

True that, with 2011 the only one coming anywhere near that... and it wasn't hugely below average overall IIRC.

Still, the year after the one you speak of remains a rough guide to how my 'suspicions' are looking for now. I don't feel I will have enough spare time to produce a more technical, scientific forecast, unfortunately.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline KevBrads1  
#16 Posted : 17 April 2014 20:46:11(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,475
Location: Irlam

1981 was the last cool dry summer.

1993 wasn't that dry.

1972 was another cool dry summer.

Edited by user 17 April 2014 20:48:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Stormchaser  
#17 Posted : 17 April 2014 21:08:18(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

Cheers Kev 

I'm fairly sure I've heard cool, dry summers (or at least dry) linked with a negative AMO, which is something we haven't had for some time, so perhaps that goes at least part of the way to explaining how we have managed go get through more than 3 decades without one...?

I forget when the AMO is expected to turn negative... used to have a link somewhere but it's gone AWOL 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Gavin P  
#18 Posted : 17 April 2014 22:31:57(UTC)
Gavin P

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Posts: 35,129
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United Kingdom

AMO will go into it's neagtive phase sometime in the early to mid 2020's, but as we move towards that phase we can expect to get some years that are cold in terms of the AMO.

 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline jamesthemonkeh  
#19 Posted : 17 April 2014 23:57:12(UTC)
jamesthemonkeh

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/08/2007(UTC)
Posts: 108
Location: Reading

August to September to be the hottest sunniest months, June and July mixed but no washouts.

That is my thinking anyway.

Offline future_is_orange  
#20 Posted : 19 April 2014 06:17:39(UTC)
future_is_orange

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Joined: 20/11/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,286
Man
Location: Irvine

Best in western Scotland for May spring weather...June rather mixed. July hot and continuing into August.... September a shock to the system with temps struggling by mid month to low Dble digits.

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