Good morning. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday February 7th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a deep depression moving in from the SW during tonight replacing the embers of the current one leaving the East. as a result a quieter day with scattered showers will occur today ahead of strong winds and rain arriving after dark. By tomorrow the Low pressure will move slowly NE across Ireland to Southern Scotland with severe gales and squally showers of rain and hail with thunder, sleet and snow locally, the latter mostly over the hills. This weather type will last through Saturday with just a limited reduction on Sunday as the Low drifts slowly North and begins to fill. By Monday a less windy and showery day seems likely with some longer drier interludes between the showers, still wintry on hills. On Tuesday it looks like another Atlantic storm system will be pushing in from the West with a band of heavy rain and strong winds sweeping East once more.
GFS shows the midweek period as unsettled and sometimes wet and windy as further Low pressure areas or troughs steam across from the West, a process which continues repeatedly through the entire remainder of the run. Temperatures will remain close to average or maybe a little below in the North with some snow possible over northern hills at times as a result.
The GFS Ensembles remain largely unchanged from previous samples with a very flat pattern from most members hugging the 30yr mean line with further spells of rain and showers on a Atlantic windflow. There is something of a reduction in rain quantities very late in the run.
UKMO this morning shows next Thursday with one low exiting the NE of Britain while another approaches the West with a squally shower mix early in the day probably followed by a drier interlude before further rain and gales push in from the West later in the day.
GEM shows little change in the grand scheme of things with Low pressure well in charge over and around the UK with further showers and longer spells of rain and strong winds at times in generally average temperatures overall.
NAVGEM today remains alarmist for those looking for anxiously needed relief from flooded areas as further intense depressions could run into the UK late next week enhancing the high rainfall totals of late with strong winds too.
ECM is little better with another vicious Low next Wednesday near Southern England threatening storm force winds and more definitely heavy rain across Southern britain to be followed more heavy rain and blustery westerly winds out to the end of the run.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little overall change with Low pressure still likely to be close to the North in 10 Days time with a Westerly flow with rain at times for all.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream Forecast shows no change this morning with the weakening shown of yesterday less apparent today with the flow continuing to pump East across the Atlantic and over Southern Europe throughout the run maintaining the breeding ground for further Low pressure areas to run into the UK from the west through the period.
In Summary I have to say that the current spell of this extremely volatile weather pattern which has been going since December 12th is unprecedented with absolutely no definitive sign of improvements shown within the next two weeks from this morning's output. There is total cross model support for a continuation of often wet and windy weather with copious rainfall and damaging gales in the next week. There may be some moderation in wind strengths through week 2 but rainfall looks set to continue on with further disruption which I fear could cause total devastation over the SW part of my County should this morning's charts verify. None of the above is surprising when on my little patch alone over 450mm of rain has fallen this Winter so far. We need some dry weather soon or parts of the SW of the UK are going to become a disaster area with major infrastructure consequences and life threatening lifestyle changes.
Cheers Martin. On reading the synoptic charts - I am not surprised - My part of the country has now caught up with the rain and I can well imagine that if the west country gets another lot of what we had last week - I can see a state of emergency being declared at some point.