theweatheroutlook

Charmhills
10 February 2014 11:05:42

Originally Posted by: roger63 


GFS 06h shows more sustained build of HP to south of UK.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=360&mode=0


 



Northern blocking to in deep fi.


Changeable fi though but never properly settled.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
roger63
10 February 2014 12:08:30

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Originally Posted by: roger63 


GFS 06h shows more sustained build of HP to south of UK.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=360&mode=0


 



Northern blocking to in deep fi.


Changeable fi though but never properly settled.



ENS in FI on 06h show a 50:50 split zonal:anticyclonic. One off ortstart of a trend to more settled outlook?

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
10 February 2014 12:16:22
This article definately has a lot to say about it:

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2014/02/07/global-warming-actually-decreases-storm-activity-says-science-paper/ 

I have posted this earlier in the M.O. discussion, it appears the North Atlantic is going cold and Stormy and it is not have anything to do with Global Warming!.

But do worry about floods and then cold and snowy after it, say late winter and two thirds of spring could be...anyone looking for warm and sunny ahem, you likely are to see the cold and wintry instead, but for another two weeks it will not be that cold but at times chilly instead!, mild weather will reduce...
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
10 February 2014 12:53:55

Originally Posted by: roger63 


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Originally Posted by: roger63 


GFS 06h shows more sustained build of HP to south of UK.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=360&mode=0


 



Northern blocking to in deep fi.


Changeable fi though but never properly settled.



ENS in FI on 06h show a 50:50 split zonal:anticyclonic. One off ortstart of a trend to more settled outlook?



Yes an increasing number of GEFS members in far FI supporting a cold push from the east - not all of which reach our shores of course


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=384

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
ITSY
10 February 2014 12:59:14

GEM's midnight run ain't pretty, and although the GFS is toned down a touch, the outlook is still woeful. Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday look severe, with Thursday a rainy day but with question marks over its intensity. I wonder how long the lag time will be for Somerset, the Thames Valley and the Severn - it surely won't be too long, and the severity of the flood situation, if it improves tomorrow, will go downhill again by Wednesday.

Russwirral
10 February 2014 13:11:22

Big swings in the Ensembles like this to me mean only one thing.


 


High pressure building close to the UK?


 


http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140210/06/t850Cheshire.png


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
White Meadows
10 February 2014 13:55:21
…Probably the dullest, most tedious winter for years for model watchers… let alone cold fans. Low pressure after low pressure like a stuck record.
Medlock Vale Weather
10 February 2014 14:07:53

EURO4 snow accumulation up to Wednesday 


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/02/10/basis06/ukuk/weas/14021206_2_1006.gif


 

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Gavin P
10 February 2014 14:10:39

Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


A Very Slow Change To Drier Conditions Next Week?


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


And by very slow, I mean a real slog to get this trough to lift out, LOL.


 

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Saint Snow
10 February 2014 15:27:14

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

…Probably the dullest, most tedious winter for years for model watchers… let alone cold fans. Low pressure after low pressure like a stuck record.


 


I think it's been far better than a Bartlett-dominated winter. I love snow and a cold winter, but I've found the violent storms quite exhilirating and, sympathies for those affected notwithstanding, I'm always intrigued to see just how much rain we can get.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
10 February 2014 16:50:41

The slider low for next week looks potentially interesting.


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021012/UW144-21.GIF?10-17

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Charmhills
10 February 2014 16:52:20

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


A Very Slow Change To Drier Conditions Next Week?


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


And by very slow, I mean a real slog to get this trough to lift out, LOL.


 



Cheers Gav.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
David M Porter
10 February 2014 16:53:49

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

…Probably the dullest, most tedious winter for years for model watchers… let alone cold fans. Low pressure after low pressure like a stuck record.


Agree there. I've been fortunate, as have most people up here, not to have been affected by any flooding issues over the past two months but the almost constant wet weather has been beyond monotonous. Even very mild winters such as 1988/89, 1989/90 and 1997/98, to name three, had more variation in them than this one.


Let's all hope that the GFS is picking up on a change later this month and that it doesn't prove to be yet another false dawn.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Charmhills
10 February 2014 16:55:04

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

…Probably the dullest, most tedious winter for years for model watchers… let alone cold fans. Low pressure after low pressure like a stuck record.


 


I think it's been far better than a Bartlett-dominated winter. I love snow and a cold winter, but I've found the violent storms quite exhilirating and, sympathies for those affected notwithstanding, I'm always intrigued to see just how much rain we can get.




Yes it has been an interesting winter in terms of storms, squall lines, hail and thunder the lot expect snow that is.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
David M Porter
10 February 2014 17:26:12

Closing in 5 minutes.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
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