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Offline Stormchaser  
#61 Posted : 30 June 2014 22:09:53(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

How's this for a remarkable contrast:

2013 Jan-June: 7.13*C     Coldest I've recorded.

2014 Jan-June: 9.86*C     Warmest I've recorded.

 

This is only across a 12 year long record, but even so, it's a remarkable occurence.

Does anybody else have this sort of contrast to report?

Also... how much of a contrast is occuring in CET terms I wonder? 

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2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

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Online ARTzeman  
#62 Posted : 01 July 2014 07:24:23(UTC)
ARTzeman

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My Annual for the first six months comes in at 10.0c.     Anomaly   4.3c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Global Warming  
#63 Posted : 02 July 2014 21:21:58(UTC)
Global Warming

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Posts: 6,108

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

How's this for a remarkable contrast:

2013 Jan-June: 7.13*C     Coldest I've recorded.

2014 Jan-June: 9.86*C     Warmest I've recorded.

 

This is only across a 12 year long record, but even so, it's a remarkable occurence.

Does anybody else have this sort of contrast to report?

Also... how much of a contrast is occuring in CET terms I wonder? 

Very similar contrast for me as well. A difference of 2.67C between this year and last which is almost the same difference as you have, albeit my readings are slightly warmer in both years.

2013 Jan-Jun 7.58C

2014 Jan-Jun 10.25C

As far as the CET is concerned the figures are as follows:

2013 Jan-Jun 6.76C

2014 Jan-Jun 9.45C

So a difference of 2.69C which is again consistent with our own figures.

Edited by user 02 July 2014 21:24:29(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#64 Posted : 02 July 2014 21:26:55(UTC)
Global Warming

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So we have clocked up 6 significantly above aveage months in a row. Can we make it 7? That would be unprecedented to have each of the first 7 months of the year all more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean.

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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#65 Posted : 02 July 2014 21:39:29(UTC)
Global Warming

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The 12 month rolling CET mean now stands at 10.92C.

The 12 month rolling mean has only even been higher than this in the following months:

Oct 1995 11.07C
Jan 2007 to Aug 2007 when the 12 month mean was above 11C every month

The rolling mean has almost certainly peaked for now as we are unlikely to get a July as hot as last year.

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Edited by user 02 July 2014 21:40:45(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline JOHN NI  
#66 Posted : 10 July 2014 07:26:24(UTC)
JOHN NI

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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

My Annual for the first six months comes in at 10.0c.     Anomaly   4.3c.   

Suffice to say this large positive anamoly will be addressed by nature at some point over the coming 12 months. I would almost expect at least one month (and possibly 2) in 2014 to be well below average and another during the first half of 2015. I would also expect a few months with slightly below average temperartures in the mix too. be interesting to see how it transpires..... 

John.

The orange County of Armagh.

Offline Gavin P  
#67 Posted : 10 July 2014 12:44:57(UTC)
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United Kingdom

Things will eventually even themselves up at some point, but it might not necessarily be this year when it happens.

Certainly if we switch to La Nina next spring it makes a cool and wet summer for 2015 quite likely, but from now to then I'm not sure how things will pan out? It's possible that it could continue generally warm for the rest of 2014 anyway.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Online ARTzeman  
#68 Posted : 12 July 2014 11:20:07(UTC)
ARTzeman

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My Annual       11.1c.      Anomaly      5.4c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Stormchaser  
#69 Posted : 29 July 2014 18:17:47(UTC)
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Location: West Hants

January to July mean temperatures IMBY...

2008 managed 10.82*C.

2006 managed 10.88*C

...but well on course for the highest by some margin is 2014, which appears to be aiming at around 11.1*C 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline TimS  
#70 Posted : 29 July 2014 19:51:24(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,469
Location: Brockley

Without wanting to drag the deeply unappealing climate forum antics in here, it is remarkable how over the last 25 years the volatility in the CET has behaved rather like the global climate and ENSO.

- In the late 80s after ups and downs over a decade or so we get a jump up to a new mean state, starting in 88/89. Just like the global climate.

- in the 90s we fluctuate but generally head in an upward direction. Just like the global climate.

- Around 97/8 until 2006 we enter a new remarkable stable period of warm temperatures with very little year on year volatility. Just like the global climate.

-Since 2007 we are all over the place, cool years alternating with record warm ones, massively increased volatility (due to amplified NH jet?) and a big uptick this year. Just like the global climate.

Could the UK be the perfect bellwether for global changes? Should we replace the GISS or UAH global temp series with the CET?

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Online ARTzeman  
#71 Posted : 31 July 2014 11:46:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

 7   Months  nearly  over  all bar   1   day...    My backyard reading  is   11.4c Anomaly  5.7c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Global Warming  
#72 Posted : 02 August 2014 09:56:46(UTC)
Global Warming

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Spot the difference!

The consistently above average trend continues unabated. Warmest first 7 months of the year on record.

 

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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Online ARTzeman  
#73 Posted : 02 August 2014 12:25:05(UTC)
ARTzeman

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My annual is now reading 12.1c. Anomaly   ....   6.4c. ......

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online Devonian  
#74 Posted : 02 August 2014 13:00:28(UTC)
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Location: East Dartmoor

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

My annual is now reading 12.1c. Anomaly   ....   6.4c. ......

Can your average mean temperature to now be 5.7C? or do you mean the 'sum of the anomalies' is 6.4C??

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Online ARTzeman  
#75 Posted : 02 August 2014 13:16:21(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

From NOAA   ANNUAL  REPORT 2014

Mean Max      Mean Min    Mean    Depart From Norm

     17.0c            8.0c.      12.1c          6.4c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online ARTzeman  
#76 Posted : 19 August 2014 13:08:03(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Down a little today for my reading..    12.0c.   Anomaly    6.3.  Both down 0.1c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Global Warming  
#77 Posted : 05 September 2014 17:30:07(UTC)
Global Warming

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Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

First below average month of the year but we are still more than 1C above average overall.

If we have an average CET for the rest of the year we will finish at 10.49C which would be the 10th warmest year on record.

We need each of the last 4 months of the year to be 1C above average in order to get the highest CET ever and just beat the 10.82C set in 2006.

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Offline Global Warming  
#78 Posted : 28 September 2014 10:41:23(UTC)
Global Warming

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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Here is the final list of predictions. There are 40 in total. I had to move a few by 0.01C in order to ensure there were no duplicates. Where a duplicate existed the first person to post a prediction for that figure gets to keep it. The later poster had their prediction adjusted.

Well it currently looks like someone in the top 5 on this table will be the closest prediction. At this point anything from 10.5C to 11.0C looks very possible. We could end up lower with a very cold end to the year of course. Still time for things to change.

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Offline Stormchaser  
#79 Posted : 28 September 2014 20:56:23(UTC)
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Location: West Hants

Good to know I'm still in the running here at least foot-in-mouth

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Global Warming  
#80 Posted : 04 October 2014 14:21:01(UTC)
Global Warming

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Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

After a significant blip in August the status quo has returned in September with another month more than 1C above average.

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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
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