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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 November 2013 22:44:26(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

All predictions forDecember to be sent viaPrivate Messageto Global Warming please
As usual the predictions forDecember will be via PM to me to avoid any tactical predictions in the competition and to keep things as interesting as possible right up to the end of the year. So please don’t post your predictions directly in the thread but send them via private message to me. A full list of the predictions will be published once entries close.
I'm afraid I am late with this thread as I have been very busy. The analysis is also shorter than usual as a result.Entries for this month will therefore be open until 23:59 on 2 December with no penalties.
Decemberhistoric data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
2012 saw a very average December with 4.8C. Prior to that 2011was warm but 2010 was of course thesecond coldest on record with an incredible -0.7C. 2008 and 2009 were also cold. The warmest December in recent times was 2006 with 6.5C.
December is the only month of the year where the 1981-2010 mean is lower than the 1971-2000 mean and it is lower by some considerable margin.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 5.1C
1981-2010: 4.6C
1988-2012: 4.6C
Here is a chart of theDecember CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average.

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
The ensembles are currently looking very average indeed in terms of T2m temperatures although the 850's show a swing from mild to cool to who knows what at the end of the run.

ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=12&type=tn
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=12&type=tx
Again the mean looks fairly average.
Weatheronline
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead
Out of date but looks to be on the coolish side
Terry Scholey
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html
Turning colder after a fairly mild start
Netweather
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/images/lrf/oct2013/xdectemp.png.pagespeed.ic.J810nVS7GP.png
Average
Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/c/A3_plots-temp-DJF.pdf

Expected to be colder than average. Interestingly this trend is expected to continue throughout the winter.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 08 January 2014 12:38:23(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline Surrey John  
#2 Posted : 29 November 2013 11:59:33(UTC)
Surrey John

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 19/10/2007(UTC)
Posts: 775
Man
Location: Kingston upon Thames

PM sent

Thanks for running competition

Kingston upon Thames

15m ASL

Offline ARTzeman  
#3 Posted : 29 November 2013 13:39:45(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,009
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Pm'd mine ... Hopefully recieved...

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline NeilM  
#4 Posted : 29 November 2013 22:43:38(UTC)
NeilM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 936
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Walney, Barrow

Sent

Walney Island, Barrow - 0m asl

My New website, www.omuiri-photography.co.uk, please visit, feedback welcome.

Offline Deep Powder  
#5 Posted : 30 November 2013 07:32:09(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,435
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

Pmed mine to you GW, hopefully you have it!
Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Online Caz  
#6 Posted : 30 November 2013 18:19:54(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,194
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Sent mine too!  Thanks GW!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#7 Posted : 30 November 2013 20:01:48(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,064
Location: South Cambridgeshire

sent mine a couple of hours back.

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline Global Warming  
#8 Posted : 01 December 2013 12:35:13(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

First look at how the first half of December is shaping up. Looks chilly after today. This is based on the 0z GFS so would look even colder under the 6z.

Friday to Monday looks particularly cold with the CET barely above freezing on those days.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#9 Posted : 01 December 2013 13:50:19(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,009
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Today's figures from Metcheck  6.04c   Anomaly  1.04c.

                              N-W         5.65c.  Anomaly  0.55c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

vince  
#10 Posted : 02 December 2013 01:29:49(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

sent :-)
Offline ARTzeman  
#11 Posted : 02 December 2013 12:07:22(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 27,009
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Too early    but  today's figures :-

Met Office Hadley   5.8c.    Anomaly  1.0c.  provisional to 1st....

Metcheck               6.11c.  Anomaly  1.12c.

N-W                      6.42c.  Anomaly  1 .32c.

My   Mean             5.4c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#12 Posted : 02 December 2013 14:13:35(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,064
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

First look at how the first half of December is shaping up. Looks chilly after today. This is based on the 0z GFS so would look even colder under the 6z.

Friday to Monday looks particularly cold with the CET barely above freezing on those days.

Cheers Simon - I wonder how this month will turn out.

I felt my CET figure was a real guess this time.

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline ARTzeman  
#13 Posted : 03 December 2013 12:34:09(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,009
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley   6.1c.    Anomaly   1.1c.   provisional  to   2nd.

Metcheck              6.08c.   Anomaly   1.09c.

N-W                     6.34c.   Anomaly   1.24c.

My   Mean            6.1c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#14 Posted : 04 December 2013 11:48:11(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,009
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     6.7c.  Anomaly  1.7c. Provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                5.98c  Anomaly 0.99c

N-W                       6.38c. Anomaly 1.28c.

My  Mean               5.8c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Saint Snow  
#15 Posted : 04 December 2013 19:53:02(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 45,940
Man
Location: St Helens

Are we going to get the list of entries for December, GW?

"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline cowman  
#16 Posted : 04 December 2013 20:11:08(UTC)
cowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/02/2013(UTC)
Posts: 904
Man
United Kingdom
Location: uttoxeter

Look's like I've gone a mile to low this month.way to high last.
Offline ARTzeman  
#17 Posted : 05 December 2013 01:07:24(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,009
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

Are we going to get the list of entries for December, GW?

That was out !st December page 6 on November CET watch....

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline cowman  
#18 Posted : 05 December 2013 08:35:30(UTC)
cowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/02/2013(UTC)
Posts: 904
Man
United Kingdom
Location: uttoxeter

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post
<p>
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post
</p>

<p>Are we going to get the list of entries for December, GW?</p>

<p>

That was out !st December page 6 on November CET watch....</p>

That's not December's entries.

Offline ARTzeman  
#19 Posted : 05 December 2013 12:01:04(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,009
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Originally Posted by: cowman Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post
Are we going to get the list of entries for December, GW?
That was out !st December page 6 on November CET watch....
That's not December's entries.

..Sorry. My Mistake..

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#20 Posted : 05 December 2013 12:05:57(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,009
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met office Hadley    6.6c.     Anomaly     1.5c.     Provisional   to  4th.

Metcheck               5.68c.   Anomaly     0.69c.

 N-W                     6.01c.   Anomaly     0.91c.

My    Mean             5.6c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

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