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Offline Global Warming  
#81 Posted : 23 November 2013 20:56:49(UTC)
Global Warming

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My CET estimate is now tracking about 0.4C below Hadley so we can expect a large downward adjustment this month.


Another cold today leaves my CET estimate standing at 6.38C. The cold weather continues for another three days which will see us continuing to track well below the Nov 2010 CET. However, the 27th and 30th are expected to be about average and the 28th and 29th could be well above average. So by the month end we should be well above Nov 2010.


I currently expect the CET to finish at 5.99C this month which is 0.88C below the 1971-2000 mean.



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Offline four  
#82 Posted : 23 November 2013 21:12:18(UTC)
four

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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post


 


...we may not have the snow but we certainly have the cold, relatively speaking!




Yes a month wihich has gradually chilled into the winter temperature range without anything very extreme along the way. 
5.3C the mean here, it hasn't changed much in a while.  

Online Stormchaser  
#83 Posted : 23 November 2013 21:13:30(UTC)
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Looks like a substantial error for me this month. I do wonder what the spread of predictions was, given the insistance on a mild month from the models and the Met Office back in late October.

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Offline ARTzeman  
#84 Posted : 24 November 2013 12:16:29(UTC)
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Producing 6's today.


 


Met Office Hadley 6.8c.   Anomaly  -0.2c.   provisional to 23rd.


Metcheck             6.50c. Anomaly  -0.42c.


N-W                    6.87c. Anomaly  -0.03c.


My Mean              6.7c.


 



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Offline Hungry Tiger  
#85 Posted : 24 November 2013 22:11:01(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post


As of this morning, my maximum average is 0.772°C below the LTA, and my minimum average is 0.772°C below the LTA.


That's not an error! A genuine fluke of statistics there 




Remarkably, my minimum average looks to fall below 3°C within a day or two, which then makes it the lowest I've recorded for November going back to 2003, with 2010 bang-on 3°C.


...we may not have the snow but we certainly have the cold, relatively speaking!



The big difference between this November and November 2010 was the fact that the first 2 weeks of November 2010 were extremely mild. Indeed if it had not been for the exceptional cold of the last 10 days - it could have approached the mildest November on record.


This November has been persistently chilly - It has not been very cold - but it has been somewhat chilly.


Now, if the last 10 days of this November were to emulate November 2010 - which we know it won't - but if it did - then that would have made this November the coldest one on record.


 

Gavin S.
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Offline ARTzeman  
#86 Posted : 25 November 2013 11:58:10(UTC)
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Met office Hadley     6.7c.   Anomaly   -0.3c.  Provisional  to 24th.


Metcheck                6.43c.  Anomaly   -0.50c.


N-W                       6.79c.   Anomaly   -0.11c.


 My   Mean              6.5c.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
Offline cowman  
#87 Posted : 25 November 2013 16:11:25(UTC)
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So much for it being a mild month.my CET looks very sick,ho well,all ways December to have a go at.
Offline nouska  
#88 Posted : 25 November 2013 20:23:18(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: cowman Go to Quoted Post
So much for it being a mild month.my CET looks very sick,ho well,all ways December to have a go at.


I have to admit to being swayed by the Met Office prognosis of a much milder November even though my normal method pointed to the opposite.


Now for the next month - here's the contingency planners temperature outlook.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/c/A3_plots-temp-DJF.pdf


Will it be more accurate for December?


Decisions....decisions..........

Offline ARTzeman  
#89 Posted : 26 November 2013 12:03:11(UTC)
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Met office Hadley   6.6c.   Anomaly   -0.3c.    Provisional  to 25th.


Metcheck              6.28c.  Anomaly  -0.64c.


N-W                     6.62c   Anomaly  -0.28c.


My   Mean             6.4c.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
Offline ARTzeman  
#90 Posted : 27 November 2013 12:23:38(UTC)
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Met Office Hadley   6.5c.   Anomaly  -0.3c.  Provisional to  26th.


Metcheck               6.31c. Anomaly  -0.62c.


N-W                      6.63c. Anomaly  -0.27c.


My   Mean              6.3c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
Offline Rob K  
#91 Posted : 28 November 2013 11:00:36(UTC)
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It's been a funny month in a way because the synoptics haven't really been cold apart from brief northerlies. It's mainly been cold because of high pressure.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline ARTzeman  
#92 Posted : 28 November 2013 12:24:44(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Met Office Hadley   6.5c.   Anomaly  -0.3c.  Provisional to  27th.


Metcheck              6.36c.  Anomaly  -0.56c.


N-W                     6.69c.  Anomaly  -0.21c.  


My   Mean             6.3c.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
Offline Quantum  
#93 Posted : 28 November 2013 22:26:41(UTC)
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What sort of correction are we expecting on this one? 6.5C is still 0.3C too high for me. 

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Offline Global Warming  
#94 Posted : 28 November 2013 23:04:45(UTC)
Global Warming

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Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post


What sort of correction are we expecting on this one? 6.5C is still 0.3C too high for me. 



A big correction this month. My estimate of the CET to yesterday is 6.06C so 0.44C lower than the provisional Hadley.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#95 Posted : 29 November 2013 11:34:30(UTC)
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Met Office Hadley  6.6c.    Anomaly   -0.1c.   Provisional to 28th.


Metcheck              6.42c.  Anomaly   -0.50c.


N-W                     6.74c.  Anomaly   -0.16c.


My  Mean             6.4c.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
Offline ARTzeman  
#96 Posted : 30 November 2013 11:21:49(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Met Office Hadley   6.6c.   Anomaly    0.0c.   Provisional to  29th.


Metcheck               6.41c. Anomaly  -0.51c.


N-W                      6.73c  Anomaly  -0.17c.


My  Mean               6.4c.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
Offline Twister  
#97 Posted : 30 November 2013 16:52:48(UTC)
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I was bold with my CET prediction in the hope to move up the table. Unfortunately I went the wrong way! 

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Offline Quantum  
#98 Posted : 30 November 2013 23:36:44(UTC)
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Looks like this is going to be my month. So we are finishing on 6.6, now come up 0.3C downward correction!

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Offline Global Warming  
#99 Posted : 01 December 2013 11:42:53(UTC)
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Final figure is 6.17C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013


Congratulations to Alvin Meister who predicted 6.2C




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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#100 Posted : 01 December 2013 11:47:36(UTC)
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Autumn CET finishes at 10.80C which is just under 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean mainly thanks to the very warm October.


This makes it the 33rd warmest Autumn in the 355 year CET series but there have been 8 warmer Autumns going back only as far as 1999. This just shows how warm Autumn has been as a season in recent years.


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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
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