The last week of November 2010 was in a class of its own.

I'd never known anything like it - it was much colder than the last week of November 1978 which was the last really cold last week of  November I remember.

 

 

 

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The last week of November 2010 was in a class of its own.

I'd never known anything like it - it was much colder than the last week of November 1978 which was the last really cold last week of  November I remember.

 

 

Superb week, ending with us having to curtail our Christmas shopping day in York at the St Nicholas Fayre due to heavy snow - in fact, we nearly got stranded there for the night. Great fun!

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Met Office Hadley   7.8c.   Anomaly   -0.1c.   provisional to  9th.

Metcheck               7.61c. Anomaly    0.69c. 

N-W                      8.05c. Anomaly    1.15c.

My Mean               8.3c.

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Met Office Hadley    7.7c     Anomaly  -0.3c.    Provisional   to 10th.

Metcheck                7.47c. Anomaly    0.55c.

N-W                       7.94c. Anomaly    1.04c.

My Mean                8.0c.

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I think I could be at least 2c out this month

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With the first half nearly gone we are on 5.3C (-1.1C) here, it will be increasingly difficult to get back to average through the 2nd half even without the suggested cold spell(s)

November is the big transition month isn't it, Late October early November can often be remarkably mild but by the end of the month we can be into serious cold if conditions conspire. 

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7.7C now

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

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With the lowest prediction of anyone, given a cold spell in the later part of the month. This could finally be my month!

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With the lowest prediction of anyone, given a cold spell in the later part of the month. This could finally be my month!

I know I've gone too high  now. I reckon now we'll end up on about 6.7C.

I went for 8C - I suppose 1.3C out isn't too bad really.

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Met Office Hadley    7.7c   Anomaly -0.2c.   provisional  to  11th.

Metcheck               7.76c. Anomaly  0.84c.

N-W                      8.5c.  Anomaly   1.34c.

My Mean               8.3c.  

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Looking at the models now I can,t help feeling that I will be a couple of degrees too high also. Could be a quite cold month up here as we have been pretty cold already this month running over 2C below average. As the av for here isn,t much above 5C is a sub 3C Nov possible (for Scotland) if there is a cold ending to the month?

Yep, looks like many of us have over done it this month!

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The next week will probably bring it down..With cooler nights...

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Met Office Hadley   7.8c.    Anomaly   -0.0c.  provisional to  12th.

Metcheck              7.56c.   Anomaly    0.64c.

N-W                     8.02c.   Anomaly    1.12c.

My    Mean            8.3c.

  

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I'm happy with my 7c guess at the moment.   Probably spoken too soon though! 

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Met Office Hadley     7.7c    Anomaly  -0.0c    provisional to   13th.

Metcheck                7.57c   Anomaly   0.65c.

N-W                      8.04c.   Anomaly   1.14c.

My Mean               8.2c. 

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Met office Hadley     7.6c.     Anomaly   0.0c.    provisional  to  14th.

Metcheck                7.37c.  Anomaly    0.45c.

N-W                       7.83c.  Anomaly    0.93c.

My mean                8.1c.

  

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Met Office Hadley    7.5c.   Anomaly   0,0c.  Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck               7.33c.  Anomaly   0.41c.

N-W                      7.72c.    Anomaly   0.82c.

My Mean               7.9c.  

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November looks like being a very interesting month. The provisional Hadley CET figures over the past week have at times been way too high. For example yesterday's Hadley figure came out at 5.6C. My estimate for yesterday is 3.95C.

Up to yesterday my CET estimate is 7.19C. This compares favourably with Philip Eden's figure of 7.2C http://www.climate-uk.com/

The next three days should see the CET holding steady before a steady decline for the rest of the month. There is no doubt now that this month will finish well below average. We are currently tracking well below the 2010 CET for November and while the current output suggests we will end up above 2010 in the end that should be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage.

The models usually try to revert towards the mean by the end of the run so I would not be at all surprised if the cold weather held on through to the end of the month. If it does then the CET could finish as low as the 2010 figure or possibly lower.

Currently I am estimating the CET will finish at 5.72C. At present it looks like nobody will be even close in the CET competition unless some milder air appears from somewhere.

Goddamit, first time I do well, and I have a 0.2C penalty 

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