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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 27 September 2013 09:21:58(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,125

Advance notice

As usual the predictions for November and December will be via PM to me to avoid any tactical predictions in the competition and to keep things as interesting as possible right up to the end of the year. So this is the last month in 2013 for predictions directly into the thread.

September retrospective

Overall a very average month when compared to the 1971-2000 mean. A warm start followed by a very cool middle part of the month but a mild finish. Not as cold as September 2012 but the fourth year out of the last seven where the CET has been less than 14C in September.

Looking ahead to October

Probably starting relatively mild but this may not last for very long.  

Please place your October CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries with no penalty is 23:59 on 30 September. Late entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 October but are subject to a penalty of 0.2C per day for the purposes of the annual competition.

October historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

2012 saw one of the coolest October's for a while with a CET of just 9.7C. Only 3 times has the CET failed to reach 10C since 1993. You have to go back to 1993 and 1992 for the last really cold Octobers with 8.5C and 7.8C respectively. 2011 saw a very warm October with 12.6C. The CET has exceeded 13C three times since 2000.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 10.4C
1981-2010: 10.7C
1988-2012: 10.8C

Here is a chart of the October CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average



Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

An above average start. 850's gradually tail off towards average but 2m temps only fall slightly. 

ECM (De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps 
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=12&type=tn
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=12&type=tx
Staying on the mild side throughout the first 10 days although also a sign of a slight cool down towards the end.

Weatheronline
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead
Out of date but suggests a reasonably mild first half of the month.  

Terry Scholey
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html
A generally mild first half of the month although could be some cool nights.

Netweather
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/images/lrf/aug2013/xocttemp.png.pagespeed.ic.g5nFqo5FJm.png
Out of date as such but the forecast issued end of August suggested October would be cooler than average

Exacta
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

A warm start but turning progressively cooler and cold by the end of the month with the risk of snow even at lower levels.

WeatherOutlook
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/17-to-30-day-outlook.aspx?region=6
Again a warm start but also signs that it could turn very cold by the end of the month

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners
Contingency planners forecast not yet available

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london#?tab=regionalForecast
30 day forecast - a warm start but then fairly average

Pattern matching (just for fun)

My analysis of years with similar temperature profiles to 2013 for the summer and September suggests there is little likelihood of a cold October overall. The matching years tend to be warmer than average as a whole with a central range of around 10.7C to 11.7C. The coldest matching years since 1900 were 1935 with 9.5C and 1953 with 9.7C.

My summary

Taking all the available data and analysis into account it is clear that the first week of the month is likely to be above average. Beyond that there is some uncertainty as to whether things return to normal or stay somewhat on the mild side. There are signs of a possible significant cool down as we move into the final third of the month possibly with a very cold end to the month. If this happens it could have a big impact on the overall CET. The lack of an active tropical season in the Atlantic should help prevent too many spanners in the works which can sometimes make predicting at this time of the year very difficult.

At this point I am leaning towards a close to average month with a preference for something slightly on the milder side of average. A warm start offset in part by a cool end to the month. If we do get a very cold end to the month then overall slightly below average would be more likely.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 06 November 2013 21:23:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 27 September 2013 11:36:50(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,757
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Well here goes....11.5c . for me please. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online Roonie  
#3 Posted : 27 September 2013 14:11:54(UTC)
Roonie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,253
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

10.31 please
Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline Essan  
#4 Posted : 27 September 2013 14:30:27(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 29,893
Antarctica
Location: Albion

A rather average 10.8c

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.

Weather & Earth Science News

Cape Wrath and Beyond - My blog for the Cape Wrath Trail 2019 charity walk.

Offline Snow Hoper  
#5 Posted : 27 September 2013 14:48:35(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,053
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

Going to take a risky punt this month at 9.96C.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline springsunshine  
#6 Posted : 27 September 2013 18:08:31(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,164
Location: Bournemouth

10.9c please

Online warrenb  
#7 Posted : 28 September 2013 07:10:25(UTC)
warrenb

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,573
Man
Location: Tonbridge, Kent

9.9C for me please.
beaufort  
#8 Posted : 28 September 2013 07:32:15(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

10.75C please.

toasty  
#9 Posted : 28 September 2013 07:42:23(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

10.4 please.cheers

Online Ally Pally Snowman  
#10 Posted : 28 September 2013 08:22:45(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,603
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

9.75c please.

Offline Weathermac  
#11 Posted : 28 September 2013 08:32:57(UTC)
Weathermac

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,421
Location: Bedworth Warwickshire

10.4c for me please.
Online doctormog  
#12 Posted : 28 September 2013 08:36:44(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 68,783

11.4°C for me.
Offline cowman  
#13 Posted : 28 September 2013 10:26:36(UTC)
cowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/02/2013(UTC)
Posts: 904
Man
United Kingdom
Location: uttoxeter

11.1c for me please.
DaveinHull  
#14 Posted : 28 September 2013 10:27:30(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

11.1c

Offline Charmhills  
#15 Posted : 28 September 2013 12:19:21(UTC)
Charmhills

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 47,127
Man
Location: Loughborough.

11.7c please a mild month ahead.

Duane.

Offline lanky  
#16 Posted : 28 September 2013 13:00:43(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,510
Man

I'll go with 11.5 please

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline ozone_aurora  
#17 Posted : 28 September 2013 13:44:36(UTC)
ozone_aurora

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 522
Location: Lowestoft

A mostly mild month, I think. I'll go for 11.6 C, please.

Offline Hippydave  
#18 Posted : 28 September 2013 18:07:40(UTC)
Hippydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,061
Location: Tunbridge Wells

11.3c for me please

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: East Grinstead

Offline roger63  
#19 Posted : 28 September 2013 19:03:37(UTC)
roger63

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,281
Man
Location: Winchester,Hampshire

10.7C please

Offline Deep Powder  
#20 Posted : 28 September 2013 19:13:53(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,433
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

Bang on 10c for me please!
Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

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