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Online David M Porter  
#981 Posted : 16 February 2014 09:50:48(UTC)
David M Porter

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Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC)
Posts: 17,325
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Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post

Speak for yourself Marcus. After this horrific winter, I'm sure the majority would prefer an early spring warmth.

I bet there are a few on here hoping for a late wintry spell

I think most will just want a dry spell now, and one that lasts for as long as possible, whether it is of the mild or cold type.

Edited by user 16 February 2014 09:52:41(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline Gooner  
#982 Posted : 16 February 2014 10:14:40(UTC)
Gooner

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Posts: 42,226
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Originally Posted by: David M Porter Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post

Speak for yourself Marcus. After this horrific winter, I'm sure the majority would prefer an early spring warmth.

I bet there are a few on here hoping for a late wintry spell

I think most will just want a dry spell now, and one that lasts for as long as possible, whether it is of the mild or cold type.

I agree but I am probably in the minority in the fact that a wintry spell is wanted

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Matty H  
#983 Posted : 17 February 2014 00:42:37(UTC)
Matty H

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Location: Lost

Did anyone's long range forecast rubbish accurately forecast the winter we've had?
Yate, Nr Bristol

Offline Snow Hoper  
#984 Posted : 17 February 2014 05:40:06(UTC)
Snow Hoper

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Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,053
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United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

Yes Matty

 

 

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper Go to Quoted Post

I reckon we'll be in for a mild, wet and windy winter with limited cold especially across the south

 

So far, so good.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline soperman  
#985 Posted : 18 February 2014 10:43:26(UTC)
soperman

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Location: Great Kingshill, Chilterns (172m absl)

Can we replace this thread with 2014 Spring Prospects please?

Offline Jonesy  
#986 Posted : 19 February 2014 00:37:49(UTC)
Jonesy

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Location: Medway

Originally Posted by: soperman Go to Quoted Post
Can we replace this thread with 2014 Spring Prospects please?

No point, Spring will be Winter just like Winter was Autumn :-D then Summer will be spring...Confusing I agree :-D

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .

Offline Medlock Vale Weather  
#987 Posted : 19 February 2014 01:22:16(UTC)
Medlock Vale Weather

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Location: Oldham

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 93 metres/305 feet above sea level.

Website: http://medlockweather.weebly.com

Weather station location: http://bit.ly/VI9CNu

What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/...wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Online nouska  
#988 Posted : 20 February 2014 01:13:54(UTC)
nouska

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,613
Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.

As winter draws to a close, a remarkable illustration of our horrible winter in this sea level presure composite anomaly of the last two months.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline Gooner  
#989 Posted : 20 February 2014 11:04:29(UTC)
Gooner

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Posts: 42,226
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Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline roger63  
#990 Posted : 28 February 2014 07:08:44(UTC)
roger63

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Location: Winchester,Hampshire

Now Winter is over who got it right.?

CFS I think called it right showing postive anomalies over Europe pretty consistently.

Was there any forecasting organisation that got it right?

It was a trickyone to forecast.No really strong indicator and conflicting signals.I initailly went for milder than average and then Like METO switched to beow average at the end of November

 

Offline richardabdn  
#991 Posted : 28 February 2014 19:36:37(UTC)
richardabdn

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,524
Location: Aberdeen

I don't think anyone could have reasonably been expected to forecast the winter to have been as bad as it turned out.

Months with the lowest mean pressure in Aberdeen since 1866:

Feb 2014: 986.0mb
Feb 1990: 990.1mb
Nov 2000: 992.2mb
Dec 1929: 993.2mb
Jan 1948: 993.3mb
Dec 1868: 993.6mb
Mar 1876: 993.6mb
Jan 2014: 994.3mb
Jan 1936: 994.4mb
Feb 1910: 994.6mb
Nov 1877: 994.9mb

Seasons with the lowest mean pressure since 1866:

Winter 2013/14: 993.9mb
Winter 1914/15: 997.5mb
Winter 1909/10: 999.3mb
Winter 1989/90: 999.8mb
Autumn 2000 : 1000.4mb
Winter 1935/36: 1000.6mb
Winter 1876/77: 1001.0mb
Winter 1994/95: 1001.3mb
Winter 1950/51: 1001.7mb
Autumn 1923 : 1001.9mb

Really puts this hateful season in context. To break records by that margin after 150 years is incredible, especially given that high pressure dominated in the first half of December. Just 989mb average for 18th Dec to 28th Feb. It didn't reach 1020mb after 11th December and didn't even reach 1010mb after 12th January.

Edited by user 28 February 2014 19:38:57(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

2010s - The Worst Decade for Warmth (or any other type of extreme)

Decadal High Temperatures at Dyce:

1950s: 28.9C, 7th June 1950

1960s: 27.4C, 14th July 1969

1970s: 28.4C, 25th August 1976

1980s: 28.0C, 14th July 1986

1990s: 29.7C, 21st August 1995

2000s: 29.8C, 17th July 2006

2010s: 27.2C, 22nd July 2018

Offline Medlock Vale Weather  
#992 Posted : 02 March 2014 01:07:30(UTC)
Medlock Vale Weather

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 4,336
Man
Location: Oldham

Originally Posted by: roger63 Go to Quoted Post

Now Winter is over who got it right.?

CFS I think called it right showing postive anomalies over Europe pretty consistently.

Was there any forecasting organisation that got it right?

It was a trickyone to forecast.No really strong indicator and conflicting signals.I initailly went for milder than average and then Like METO switched to beow average at the end of November

 

If I recall the CMA (Chinese meteorological administration) were going for a much wetter than normal Winter for western Europe.

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 93 metres/305 feet above sea level.

Website: http://medlockweather.weebly.com

Weather station location: http://bit.ly/VI9CNu

What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/...wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Offline Snowjoke  
#993 Posted : 02 March 2014 20:44:18(UTC)
Snowjoke

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/01/2008(UTC)
Posts: 231
France
Location: Chamberet,Correze, Millevaches Parc Naturel Regional, Limousin, Massif Central

Winter 2013-14.........Surely the worst winter ever, if not the worst winter during the lifetime of TWO!!

Offline Quantum  
#994 Posted : 05 March 2014 23:43:23(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 15,197

OK 2nd review! 

"I do a personal yearly forecast every year (at least I have for the last 5 years). I've never published before though, thought I might here anyway see if it holds up.

2014

January

Milder than average especially at first and very unsettled, a chance of cold snowy periods later.

CET above normal

February

Potentially coldest month of the winter, some snow showers likely in S and E. Unlikely to be overly cold or prolonged though.

CET below normal

March

Settled, dry, rather chilly. Some late frosts and even wintry showers. Sunshine prevalent

CET below normal

April

Showery. Slightly below average temperatures. Some settled spells

CET slightly below average

May

 Extremely dry and sunny. Chilly winds at first, although very warm weather possible later. Perhaps an early heatwave.

CET around average

June

Very dry theme continuing. Some rather cool sea breezes making temps chilly at times. Somewhat below average temperatures.

CET slightly below average

July

Another dry month especially in the east. However it will be warmer than june with a few thundery outbreaks possible

CET above average

August

The dry run ends with august. Changeable, sometimes very wet or showery but still often mild.

CET slightly above average

September

Dry, rather warm and perhaps thundery. 'Indian summer'.

CET much above average

October

Probably a little drier than average

CET around average

November

Drier than average theme perhaps continuing. Average temps, becoming chilly.

CET slightly below average

December

Changable. Mix of short cold wintry spells and warmer mild spells.

CET around average.

 

I put quite a lot of work into these every year (despite them looking so short). Although only people I know have got to see them before. Its based on a bit of pattern matching and long range models mostly. I don't expect it to be that accurate; mostly just for fun. "

 

While I think I did well for January, February has been a bit of a failure (though I would note that it was substantially better than some long range forecasts!*) It was not the coldest month of the winter (not the warmest either but hardly a consolation), there were some snow showers in the S and E; at least more than January (80% of the snow I have seen since November fell in february but again really not saying much). And given that I predicted a below average CET the only part that was right was the admission that any cold spell would be unlikely to be severe or long lasting! So a complete failure of a month, but then you can't get them all. I hope to do better for march.  

 

*To be clear I am not talking about the metoffice (or TWO) . I think their LRF were actually pretty good especially the one issued end of December. 

 

Edited by user 05 March 2014 23:45:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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