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Offline KevBrads1  
#941 Posted : 30 January 2014 06:11:55(UTC)
KevBrads1

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Posts: 28,572
Location: Irlam

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post
<p>
Originally Posted by: glenogle Go to Quoted Post
</p>

<p>Interesting to note that 1914-1915 was one of the ones on the low hurricane season i updated back on pg44.</p>

<p>Is this our analogue year?</p>

<p>If so, &nbsp;anyone looking for a sting in the tail of winter can probably forget if going by CETs of Jan&nbsp;4.1 &nbsp;Feb 4.3 &nbsp;Mar 5.2 &nbsp; April 7.9 &nbsp;(although as per this week, it doesnt rule out any seasonal weather, just not an abundance of it)</p>

<p>That year was also a colder one overall in terms of the CET so might not bode too well for summer? (although it could have been a dry year for all i know)</p>

<p>On a brighter note 1916/17 appears to be a colder Dec,Jan,Feb so some hope for 2015/2016&nbsp;<img src="/twocommunity/Images/Emoticons/msp_blink.gif" alt=""></p>

<p>

</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>I remember reading on wunderground during the Hurricane Season that the lack of tropical activity would lead to heightened barclonic activity during the winter season, and believe it or not... we got that. Big time.</p>

<p>So yeah... hopefully it was a nice dry summer that year.</p>

It was cool overall and July was wet I'm afraid.

Spring was dry but on the cool side.

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Stormchaser  
#942 Posted : 31 January 2014 20:36:18(UTC)
Stormchaser

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^ sounds rather dull 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2624

Reading this arcticle out of interest, I stumbled across something interesting that could have substantial knock-on impacts in those regions depending on how February pans out:

"According to weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera, "over 90% of all stations in the Balkans from Slovenia to Croatia to Bosnia to Serbia To Montenegro to Macedonia to Kosovo etc, have DESTROYED their previous record of warmest January ever (many locations have 100 - 200 years of data.) In many cases the monthly temperatures were 7 - 9°C (13 - 16°F) above average, and the new records were 3 - 4°C above the previous record. This is for THOUSANDS of stations, almost all of them. In Slovenia, for example, Mount Kredarica is the only station in the whole country not to have set its warmest January on record." "

 

I then noticed in the comments a link to this rather incredible story, OT but worth a look: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/marshallislands/10609011/Cast-away-Shipwrecked-man-makes-land-after-16-months-adrift.html

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Medlock Vale Weather  
#943 Posted : 01 February 2014 20:13:40(UTC)
Medlock Vale Weather

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At least someones getting it - Snow coming down in Bishkek in Central Asia. http://live.saimanet.kg/ru/cams/2#.Uu1VOdI0IZw

A snowy few days ahead with temps well below zero by day and night http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/1528675

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 93 metres/305 feet above sea level.

Website: http://medlockweather.weebly.com

Weather station location: http://bit.ly/VI9CNu

What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/...wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

JoeShmoe99  
#944 Posted : 02 February 2014 08:36:27(UTC)
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Can we start a spring thread, starting to see the days get longer now and only be a few weeks until we can feel the warmth of the sun

This has been about the worst winter for coldies I can think of, haven't seen one snowflake here, even if the bad 90s winters we had the odd northerly

Offline Stormchaser  
#945 Posted : 02 February 2014 13:38:23(UTC)
Stormchaser

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I'm starting to wonder what you would find if you looked at past periods where the weather got stuck in the same general pattern and small variations of it for a very long time, and used those that are most similar to the one we're in now to generate analogues... something I might look into one day.

By similar, I mean not just in terms of it being often wet and wild, but also the onset time, which in this case is debateable; it could be said to be either the second half of October or the second half of January, depending on whether you view the couple of drier spells in there (with the December one notable) as variations of the same broad pattern.

 

...so it's not an easy task and rather speculative too I imagine! 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Gooner  
#946 Posted : 02 February 2014 14:26:25(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 Go to Quoted Post
Can we start a spring thread, starting to see the days get longer now and only be a few weeks until we can feel the warmth of the sun This has been about the worst winter for coldies I can think of, haven't seen one snowflake here, even if the bad 90s winters we had the odd northerly

Yes and with a bit of luck some wintry charts will start to show up

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Jonesy  
#947 Posted : 03 February 2014 00:46:24(UTC)
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Location: Medway

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 Go to Quoted Post
Can we start a spring thread, starting to see the days get longer now and only be a few weeks until we can feel the warmth of the sun This has been about the worst winter for coldies I can think of, haven't seen one snowflake here, even if the bad 90s winters we had the odd northerly

Yes and with a bit of luck some wintry charts will start to show up

Just like last year :-D

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .

Online nouska  
#948 Posted : 03 February 2014 10:25:54(UTC)
nouska

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Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

I'm starting to wonder what you would find if you looked at past periods where the weather got stuck in the same general pattern and small variations of it for a very long time, and used those that are most similar to the one we're in now to generate analogues... something I might look into one day.

By similar, I mean not just in terms of it being often wet and wild, but also the onset time, which in this case is debateable; it could be said to be either the second half of October or the second half of January, depending on whether you view the couple of drier spells in there (with the December one notable) as variations of the same broad pattern.

 

...so it's not an easy task and rather speculative too I imagine! 

There are some fascinating historical records from the middle of the last century regarding long periods of 'stuck' weather patterns and how they impacted on a subsistence lifestyle in Europe. This winter highlights just how different the UK can be in relation to the broader picture in Europe - without any charts to look at, it would be an impossible task to interpret how the scattered records tied in synoptically.

Offline John S2  
#949 Posted : 03 February 2014 12:16:13(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

I'm starting to wonder what you would find if you looked at past periods where the weather got stuck in the same general pattern and small variations of it for a very long time..

Winters 89/90 and 94/95 were very stormy. In both cases what followed was like a tap being turned off. From mid-March the rest of 1990 & 1995 were very dry, except for June 1990 and September 1995.

Please note this is not a prediction for 2014, although I'm sure many would like a repeat of 1995 which even had a bonus of an easterly December to finish off with.

Offline Stormchaser  
#950 Posted : 03 February 2014 12:37:41(UTC)
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Thanks for the responses John and Nouska 

The trouble with analogues is that multiple different combinations of driving factors can generate the same sort of surface conditions for our part of the world, and from archived charts it's not always possible to tell what the main driving factors were for given periods of 'stuck in a rut' weather in the past... let alone when looking at historical accounts and the like!

Throw in longer-timescale changes such as the ocean circulations and sea ice extent, and it really does become like trying to piece together a puzzle when the pictures keep changing every 5 seconds.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Andy Woodcock  
#951 Posted : 04 February 2014 08:40:51(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock Go to Quoted Post
<p>To be honest a very mild winter is overdue and thats where my money is, nothing scientific to back this up but when you consider 4 out of the last 5 has been cold something has to give.</p>

<p>Here in East Cumbria nothing could be as frustrating as last winter so the thought of a 3 month Bartlett doesnt worry me, yes a 2010&nbsp;or 2011 winter would be nice but this is the UK and I think we have used up our quota of cold winters for a while.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Andy</p>

Pleased with thar forecast but I wish I had been wrong and I certainly didn't expect it to be so crap! Very mild yes but not so bloody wet.

Andy

Andy Woodcock

Plumpton

Penrith

Cumbria

Altitude 435 feet

"I survived The Mega Bartlett Winter of 2015/16 With My Mental Health Just About Intact"

Offline Quantum  
#952 Posted : 04 February 2014 21:14:57(UTC)
Quantum

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Posts: 15,197

I hope people don't mind. I'm going to repaste my 'year' forecast that I did for the new year so it can be critizised appropiately. I'm keen to see how accurate it turns out to be:

 

"I do a personal yearly forecast every year (at least I have for the last 5 years). I've never published before though, thought I might here anyway see if it holds up.

2014

January

Milder than average especially at first and very unsettled, a chance of cold snowy periods later.

CET above normal

February

Potentially coldest month of the winter, some snow showers likely in S and E. Unlikely to be overly cold or prolonged though.

CET below normal

March

Settled, dry, rather chilly. Some late frosts and even wintry showers. Sunshine prevalent

CET below normal

April

Showery. Slightly below average temperatures. Some settled spells

CET slightly below average

May

 Extremely dry and sunny. Chilly winds at first, although very warm weather possible later. Perhaps an early heatwave.

CET around average

June

Very dry theme continuing. Some rather cool sea breezes making temps chilly at times. Somewhat below average temperatures.

CET slightly below average

July

Another dry month especially in the east. However it will be warmer than june with a few thundery outbreaks possible

CET above average

August

The dry run ends with august. Changeable, sometimes very wet or showery but still often mild.

CET slightly above average

September

Dry, rather warm and perhaps thundery. 'Indian summer'.

CET much above average

October

Probably a little drier than average

CET around average

November

Drier than average theme perhaps continuing. Average temps, becoming chilly.

CET slightly below average

December

Changable. Mix of short cold wintry spells and warmer mild spells.

CET around average.

 

I put quite a lot of work into these every year (despite them looking so short). Although only people I know have got to see them before. Its based on a bit of pattern matching and long range models mostly. I don't expect it to be that accurate; mostly just for fun. "

 

I think January turned out okay, it was mild and unsettled and it was mildest at the start of the month; the CET fell throughout. I don't think the last statement was justified though, there were no cold or snowy periods to speak of; although most transient snowfall did occur during the last part of january. Most of it was restricted to higher ground though. And CET was above average. 

 

Probably going to be out with my february forecast though :S it may well be the coldest month of the winter, though that in itself is hardly an achivement. 

 

 

 

My YouTube channel: youtube.com/quantumoverlord

Finally hit 1000 subscribers after waiting patiently for 8 years! 🎈

̶B̶l̶o̶c̶k̶e̶d̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶J̶u̶s̶t̶i̶n̶ ̶W̶ ̶(̶p̶r̶e̶s̶u̶m̶a̶b̶l̶y̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶m̶a̶n̶e̶n̶t̶l̶y̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶i̶m̶e̶)̶ Nevermind

Offline Gavin P  
#953 Posted : 05 February 2014 00:34:21(UTC)
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United Kingdom

Looks good Q.

The only thing I would criticise would be the use of "Inidian Summer" for September, when it's much more apporpriate in October

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Gooner  
#954 Posted : 05 February 2014 00:38:31(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Looks good Q.

The only thing I would criticise would be the use of "Inidian Summer" for September, when it's much more apporpriate in October

And to add to that , why the hell didnt you see all this rain coming ......................fool

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Quantum  
#955 Posted : 05 February 2014 13:26:19(UTC)
Quantum

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Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 15,197

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Looks good Q.

The only thing I would criticise would be the use of "Inidian Summer" for September, when it's much more apporpriate in October

And to add to that , why the hell didnt you see all this rain coming ......................fool

I said very unsettled what more do you want 

My YouTube channel: youtube.com/quantumoverlord

Finally hit 1000 subscribers after waiting patiently for 8 years! 🎈

̶B̶l̶o̶c̶k̶e̶d̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶J̶u̶s̶t̶i̶n̶ ̶W̶ ̶(̶p̶r̶e̶s̶u̶m̶a̶b̶l̶y̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶m̶a̶n̶e̶n̶t̶l̶y̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶i̶m̶e̶)̶ Nevermind

Offline Gooner  
#956 Posted : 06 February 2014 22:51:52(UTC)
Gooner

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Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Gooner  
#957 Posted : 07 February 2014 22:59:39(UTC)
Gooner

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Posts: 42,226
Man

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Sevendust  
#958 Posted : 08 February 2014 01:50:41(UTC)
Sevendust

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Posts: 54,996
Location: Alton, Hampshire

Disagree

Low pressure aligned to the south - not great for here

Dave

Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps

Offline Whether Idle  
#959 Posted : 08 February 2014 06:05:46(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

These charts will flip flop around more than a filanderers appendage.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline Gooner  
#960 Posted : 08 February 2014 08:16:47(UTC)
Gooner

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Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post

Disagree

Low pressure aligned to the south - not great for here

Come on Dave , you would be happy with several inches of the white stuff

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

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