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Offline Stormchaser  
#121 Posted : 22 September 2013 08:42:19(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,847
Man
Location: West Hants

A few particularly warm days on the way now, with the next two days looking to raise my local mean by 0.4°C, which will leave me close to 15°C believe it or not!

Shame that, rather unusually, I'm almost a whole degree Celsius above the CET at the moment

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#122 Posted : 22 September 2013 11:14:55(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,032
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     13.5c.    Anomaly   -0.4c.    provisional to  21 st.

Metcheck                 12.89c.  Anomaly   -0.88c.

N - W                      13.91c.   Anomaly   0.21c.

My   Mean                14.3c.

  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Stormchaser  
#123 Posted : 23 September 2013 09:43:26(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,847
Man
Location: West Hants

What a crazy old September this is. After around a week of maximum temperatures struggling to get much above my predicted CET value (15.2°C), much of the CET zone is now seeing minimums falling not much below that figure!

By my calculations it will now take something truly exceptional to bring the CET up to 15°C, let alone above.

Attempting to account for GFS tending to drop temperatures too far overnight (was 3°C too low for last night in many areas), and taking ECM into consideration, a rough estimate for the final CET is 14.7°C, but that's dependant on the Atlantic being slower to push NE as per the ECM evolution.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#124 Posted : 23 September 2013 10:59:56(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,032
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley    13.7c. Anomaly  -0.2c.    provisional to 22 nd.

Metcheck                13.05c. Anomaly   -0.67c.

N-W                       14.01c. Anomaly   0.31c.

My        Mean          14.4c.     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Gavin P  
#125 Posted : 23 September 2013 15:38:39(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,320
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

What a crazy old September this is. After around a week of maximum temperatures struggling to get much above my predicted CET value (15.2°C), much of the CET zone is now seeing minimums falling not much below that figure!

By my calculations it will now take something truly exceptional to bring the CET up to 15°C, let alone above.

Attempting to account for GFS tending to drop temperatures too far overnight (was 3°C too low for last night in many areas), and taking ECM into consideration, a rough estimate for the final CET is 14.7°C, but that's dependant on the Atlantic being slower to push NE as per the ECM evolution.

Certainly has been a strange month hasn't it?

Think those of us that went low to mid 14's could be looking good.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline ARTzeman  
#126 Posted : 23 September 2013 15:53:28(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,032
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

What a crazy old September this is. After around a week of maximum temperatures struggling to get much above my predicted CET value (15.2°C), much of the CET zone is now seeing minimums falling not much below that figure!

By my calculations it will now take something truly exceptional to bring the CET up to 15°C, let alone above.

Attempting to account for GFS tending to drop temperatures too far overnight (was 3°C too low for last night in many areas), and taking ECM into consideration, a rough estimate for the final CET is 14.7°C, but that's dependant on the Atlantic being slower to push NE as per the ECM evolution.

Certainly has been a strange month hasn't it?

Think those of us that went low to mid 14's could be looking good.

Lower` Lower` Lower....

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#127 Posted : 24 September 2013 11:12:01(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,032
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley   13.8c.  Anomaly    -0.1c.    Provisional  to  23 rd.

Metcheck              13.7c.  Anomaly    -0.55c.

N - W                  14.08c.  Anomaly    0.38c.

My   Mean          14.5c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#128 Posted : 24 September 2013 18:47:08(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,276
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

What a crazy old September this is. After around a week of maximum temperatures struggling to get much above my predicted CET value (15.2°C), much of the CET zone is now seeing minimums falling not much below that figure!

By my calculations it will now take something truly exceptional to bring the CET up to 15°C, let alone above.

Attempting to account for GFS tending to drop temperatures too far overnight (was 3°C too low for last night in many areas), and taking ECM into consideration, a rough estimate for the final CET is 14.7°C, but that's dependant on the Atlantic being slower to push NE as per the ECM evolution.

Certainly has been a strange month hasn't it?

Think those of us that went low to mid 14's could be looking good.

Mid 14's will do for me, though I may have blown it with penalty points for my late entry! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Global Warming  
#129 Posted : 25 September 2013 09:03:40(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258

Here is a final list of the predictions for September

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#130 Posted : 25 September 2013 11:40:22(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 6,078
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Still under 14c not sure how high it will actually go now.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Offline ARTzeman  
#131 Posted : 25 September 2013 11:54:03(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,032
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Not much change expected over the last few days of the month..

Recon that the low 14's will get it..

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Gavin P  
#132 Posted : 26 September 2013 07:56:55(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,320
Man
United Kingdom

Manley is still at 13.6;

http://www.climate-uk.com

Looks like with downwards corrections we'll end up in the high 13's.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline ARTzeman  
#133 Posted : 26 September 2013 08:00:05(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,032
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Metcheck 13.36c. At the moment.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#134 Posted : 26 September 2013 09:10:02(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258

My CET estimate up to yesterday is 13.59C so very much in line with Manley. My calculations are running about 0.35C below the provisional Hadley figure.

I expect very little change in the mean over the final few days of the month, just a very slight increase. I am currently estimating a final figure of 13.67C which is almost exactly in line with the 1971-2000 mean of 13.71C.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Darren S  
#135 Posted : 26 September 2013 10:02:25(UTC)
Darren S

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 11,726
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Arborfield, Berks

The 1961-90 average CET for September appears to be 13.6C. Your estimated CET for September is 0.11C above that. So, as far as the data on the Hadley site is concerned, this year of two halves continues. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Will all the remaining months of 2013 be above 1961-90, I wonder?

Darren

Arborfield, Berks (61m asl)

Winter 2019/20: Snow Days: 2; Snow Cover Days: 0; Current Depth: 0cm; Max Depth: 0cm; Total Snow: 0cm

Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Offline springsunshine  
#136 Posted : 26 September 2013 10:48:42(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,412
Location: Bournemouth

Can somebody please explain why Hadley use such an out of date period for thier mean monthly temps??

1961-1990 is 30 to 50 years+ out of date!! and to me seems plain stupid.

would it not be better to use 1991 to 2010 as the benchmark period and much more relevent to the present day.

Offline Roonie  
#137 Posted : 26 September 2013 11:49:22(UTC)
Roonie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,367
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post

Can somebody please explain why Hadley use such an out of date period for thier mean monthly temps??

1961-1990 is 30 to 50 years+ out of date!! and to me seems plain stupid.

would it not be better to use 1991 to 2010 as the benchmark period and much more relevent to the present day.

 

It says why they do here..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Also, it give a good like for like comparison going back hundreds of years.

 

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline ARTzeman  
#138 Posted : 26 September 2013 13:43:42(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,032
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Hadley 13.9c.  Metcheck 13.37. N-W 14.2c. My Mean 14.6c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Gavin P  
#139 Posted : 26 September 2013 13:50:16(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,320
Man
United Kingdom

Looks like 2013 will be another September that fails to get above 14c. There has been a definete cooling trend with September since the peak of the hot September era in 2006!

Though worth pointing out we still haven't had a significantly cold September - Will be 20 years next year since we had a sub 13c September.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Stormchaser  
#140 Posted : 27 September 2013 10:15:09(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,847
Man
Location: West Hants

Well that means the CET looks to finish over a degree below my own mean.

That's a very rare occurance and very, very annoying

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

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