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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 June 2013 20:47:40(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258

June retrospective

June is likely to end up as yet another below average month but not by too much. This could be the third June in a row to finish in the 13's. Prior to that we only had three June's below 14C in a 20 year period.

Here is a quote from my pattern matching summary in the June thread "The pattern matching suggests a June CET somewhere between 13.5C and 14.1C is the most likely scenario". Good call there by the pattern matching this month. The CET will probably finish in the middle of that range.

Looking ahead to July

There are encouraging signs that after a somewhat indifferent first week of July (although still with some warmer spells) we could see the first sustained period of warm weather in the second week of July. The outlook is definitely the most promising I have seen so far this year in terms of seeing a warmer than average month. However, the pattern matching (see the end of this post) suggests some caution is needed. There is no recent precedent for a July CET of 17C or more against the backdrop of a cold Spring and indifferent June.

Please place your July CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries with no penalty is 23:59 on 30 June. Late entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 July but are subject to a penalty of 0.2C per day for the purposes of the annual competition.

July historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

Only one of the past 6 July's has been above average and that was 2010 when we just sneaked over 17C. Both 2011 and 2012 were dismal with mid to low 15's. 2011 at 15.2C was the equal coldest July since 1988. July 2006 was the last very warm July with 19.7C.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 16.5CInsert/Edit Embedded Media
1981-2010: 16.7C
1988-2012: 16.6C

Here is a chart of the July CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average



Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

The sine wave pattern for the first week suggests unsettled weather with warmer and cooler spells alternating. Good agreement on above average conditions for the second week. The question is can this be sustained into the second half of the month?   

ECM ensembles (De Bilt)
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
The mean is fairly steady for the whole run. Nothing better than average conditions generally.

Weatheronline
The forecast is way out of date so not even worth posting. 

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/8/d/A3-plots-temp-JAS.pdf
3 month contingency planners forecast for June to August suggests a very average month with the range of options almost exactly in line with the long run average per the graph. The same goes for the 3 month period to September. However the text suggests a slightly greater chance of below average rather than above average conditions. Weak La Nina conditions are possible in the coming months.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast
30 day forecast - turning warmer in the south during week two after an average start. Second half of the month generally average although some warm periods in the south at times.

Pattern matching (just for fun)

I have looked at the following matching conditions since 1900 - May / June CET 11.4C to 12.7C combined with Apr - June CET of 10.2C to 10.9C and June CET of 13.2C to 14.2C. There are 11 matching years including 2012.

6 years had a July CET between 16.0C and 16.9C. Only 2 were above the 1971-2000 mean of 16.5C. 3 years had a July CET between 15.0C and 15.9C and 2 years had a July CET between 14C and 14.9C. The coldest was 1954 with 14.2C and the warmest 1969 with 16.8C.

For those of you keeping an eye on how 2013 compares to 1962 well 1962 is also a matching year which saw a July CET of just 15.1C. I doubt it will be that cold this year.

So the pattern matching suggests about a roughly 50% chance of the July CET being within 0.5C of the mean and a 50% chance of being more than 0.5C below the mean.

Based on the current model output I think we are likely to be in the first category where the CET finishes in the 16's. Best guess at this stage would be something between 16.2C and 16.8C.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 12 August 2013 08:39:16(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Online redmoons  
#2 Posted : 28 June 2013 21:04:25(UTC)
redmoons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,267
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

first above average month 17.6c CET lots of sunny hot weather but last week cool & wet.

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Offline Duncan McAlister  
#3 Posted : 28 June 2013 21:27:41(UTC)
Duncan McAlister

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 22/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 486
Location: Ayr

17.7 for me please

Online lanky  
#4 Posted : 28 June 2013 21:52:43(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,800
Man

I'll go with 16.5 please

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Weathermac  
#5 Posted : 28 June 2013 22:18:37(UTC)
Weathermac

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,457
Location: Bedworth Warwickshire

16.6c cet for me please.
Edicius81  
#6 Posted : 28 June 2013 23:36:17(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

I'm feeling quite optimistic about this one. 17.4c please.
Offline Dougie  
#7 Posted : 29 June 2013 01:06:20(UTC)
Dougie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

16.9°c please.

Ha'way the lads
Offline Snow Hoper  
#8 Posted : 29 June 2013 04:28:14(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,063
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

17C for me please.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

beaufort  
#9 Posted : 29 June 2013 06:29:18(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

16.8C please

Offline Gusty  
#10 Posted : 29 June 2013 06:31:33(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,536
Man
Location: Folkestone

I am feelingthe love for July 2013. 

18.0c please 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline wallaw  
#11 Posted : 29 June 2013 06:39:10(UTC)
wallaw

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,091
Man
Location: Stockton-on-Tees

16.6 for me
Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

Online Chidog  
#12 Posted : 29 June 2013 07:16:50(UTC)
Chidog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 146
Location: Coulsdon

17.5C

Offline Shez5690  
#13 Posted : 29 June 2013 07:41:31(UTC)
Shez5690

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2007(UTC)
Posts: 345
Man
Location: Bridgnorth, Shropshire

16.7C for me please

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#14 Posted : 29 June 2013 10:08:21(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 6,078
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

19.1c Scorchio!!!

Offline ARTzeman  
#15 Posted : 29 June 2013 10:18:32(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,032
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

17.1 C.  Is my reckoning...

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline roger63  
#16 Posted : 29 June 2013 10:37:50(UTC)
roger63

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,281
Man
Location: Winchester,Hampshire

16.3 for me please-just a tad below average.

Offline GezM  
#17 Posted : 29 June 2013 11:10:33(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 774
Man
United Kingdom
Location: In a house

16.4C for me please.

 

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#18 Posted : 29 June 2013 13:35:54(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,072
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I'll go for

16.5C

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline John S2  
#19 Posted : 29 June 2013 17:15:50(UTC)
John S2

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,775
Location: West Yorks/East Lancs

My guess = 17.5c
Offline Surrey John  
#20 Posted : 29 June 2013 19:29:36(UTC)
Surrey John

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 19/10/2007(UTC)
Posts: 775
Man
Location: Kingston upon Thames

I'm going to risk a rubbish second half the month and go for 16.55c please
Kingston upon Thames

15m ASL

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