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beaufort  
#841 Posted : 19 September 2013 17:38:42(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post


Snow in the arctic is now above average, unlike last year where it was still below. In fact there is some snow unusually far south in parts of canada, russia and even iceland. This may interest winter forecastors more than sea ice watchers. 



The snow cover in central Canada probably won't interest sea ice watchers - it's over a thousand miles away LOL.


Sorry for what may sound like a really stupid question. Most of the south end of Portsea Island is at or even just below sea level. The average high tide mark on the sea wall in Old Portsmouth has been in the same position for over three hundred years. The stone built quay is still being used today. If, year on year, temperatures are rising along with sea levels, why is most of Portsmouth not under water?



That's interesting Neil. In Guernsey there are similar marks but they indicate the half tide. They were moved three times to different locations the last one being during the Occuptaion. They are useful marks as parts of the Harbour dry at low water and using the rule of twelths it's quite easy to quickly calculate which berths are available depending on water availability. Our harbour is not quite as old as yours but the sea hasn't made any more frequent ingress over the walls since it was built either. Mind, nobody can tell me why we don't get E'ly gales during Spring tides.

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#842 Posted : 19 September 2013 17:53:58(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post


Snow in the arctic is now above average, unlike last year where it was still below. In fact there is some snow unusually far south in parts of canada, russia and even iceland. This may interest winter forecastors more than sea ice watchers. 



The snow cover in central Canada probably won't interest sea ice watchers - it's over a thousand miles away LOL.


Sorry for what may sound like a really stupid question. Most of the south end of Portsea Island is at or even just below sea level. The average high tide mark on the sea wall in Old Portsmouth has been in the same position for over three hundred years. The stone built quay is still being used today. If, year on year, temperatures are rising along with sea levels, why is most of Portsmouth not under water?




Bad luck? Flapper

Seriously though, I think there are regional variations in the overall rate of sea level rises. Perhaps the UK waters, or at least some of them have been effected to a lesser extent (so far)? That's just a guess though. I belie pave the data are out there, including global maps but I haven't looked at them before writing this.

I would have thought that the gradual lowering of land mass in the south may have made a difference too but perhaps these are all within the range which would be masked by large changes associated with tidal flows or storm surges etc. ?

Edit: Peter wouldn't the land mass in the south sinking actually exacerbate the effects of sea level rises?


Oh yes, silly me, half asleep today  (and probably why I'm incautiously dismissing that life from space story ).


Edit: otoh...if SE England is sinking how come the sea level at Portsmouth seems to have stayed the same?


Edit again: I see SE England is sinking at ~1mm/year which means the tide at Postsmouth should be nearly a foot higher in 300 years?

Edited by user 19 September 2013 18:12:33(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline polarwind  
#843 Posted : 19 September 2013 20:11:08(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: John Mason Go to Quoted Post
Lots of articles on sensitivity and the attendant uncertainties - go and take a look!
There is a lot of reading there. Can you save me some time and point to one such article that genuinely, would leave this reader, with the idea, that there is genuine scientific argument that high sensitivity to CO2 doubling is highly unlikely?


 

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Online Quantum  
#844 Posted : 19 September 2013 20:19:03(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: polarwind Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: John Mason Go to Quoted Post
Lots of articles on sensitivity and the attendant uncertainties - go and take a look!
There is a lot of reading there. Can you save me some time and point to one such article that genuinely, would leave this reader, with the idea, that there is genuine scientific argument that high sensitivity to CO2 doubling is highly unlikely?


 



Seems most of the lit seems to think that the climate sensitivity to doubling of CO2 is about 3C, I can't really find any indication that it is significantly less than 2C. 

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User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#845 Posted : 19 September 2013 22:27:06(UTC)
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Is not the early /southerly snow extent not in line with the papers we have been looking at? Surely the stats looking at seasonal difference in temp change clue us up ( if not the R.H. of the global air?),


The thing to look at is how this winter snow impacts spring/summer temps? If the snow (no matter how deep) goes before summer do we not face the 'Albedo flip' forcing we read so much about?

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Offline Gandalf The White  
#846 Posted : 19 September 2013 22:45:39(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: polarwind Go to Quoted Post
<p>
Originally Posted by: John Mason Go to Quoted Post
Lots of articles on sensitivity and the attendant uncertainties - go and take a look!
There is a lot of reading there. Can you save me some time and point to one such article that genuinely, would leave this reader, with the idea, that there is genuine scientific argument that high sensitivity to CO2 doubling is highly unlikely?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>


Might I ask respectfully why this dialogue is in this thread? I thought we had agreed to keep direct AGW discussion out?
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Offline Gandalf The White  
#847 Posted : 19 September 2013 22:47:49(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post
<p>Is not the early /southerly snow extent not in line with the papers we have been looking at? Surely the stats looking at seasonal difference in temp change clue us up ( if not the R.H. of the global air?),</p>
<p>The thing to look at is how this winter snow impacts spring/summer temps? If the snow (no matter how deep) goes before summer do we not face the 'Albedo flip' forcing we read so much about?</p>


Funny thing, I thought more warmth and more moisture led to more snowfall? It seems that early snowfall is being put forward with a near-subliminal message that it must be getting colder....
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Offline AIMSIR  
#848 Posted : 19 September 2013 23:04:18(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post


Is not the early /southerly snow extent not in line with the papers we have been looking at? Surely the stats looking at seasonal difference in temp change clue us up ( if not the R.H. of the global air?),


The thing to look at is how this winter snow impacts spring/summer temps? If the snow (no matter how deep) goes before summer do we not face the 'Albedo flip' forcing we read so much about?




Funny thing, I thought more warmth and more moisture led to more snowfall? It seems that early snowfall is being put forward with a near-subliminal message that it must be getting colder....
Did anyone on this Arctic sea ice thread seem to put forward this near sublimimal message?.

Edited by user 19 September 2013 23:10:42(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Gandalf The White  
#849 Posted : 19 September 2013 23:14:32(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: AIMSIR Go to Quoted Post
<p>
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post
</p>
<p>Is not the early /southerly snow extent not in line with the papers we have been looking at? Surely the stats looking at seasonal difference in temp change clue us up ( if not the R.H. of the global air?),</p>
<p>The thing to look at is how this winter snow impacts spring/summer temps? If the snow (no matter how deep) goes before summer do we not face the 'Albedo flip' forcing we read so much about?</p>
<p>
<br /><br />Funny thing, I thought more warmth and more moisture led to more snowfall? It seems that early snowfall is being put forward with a near-subliminal message that it must be getting colder....
Did anyone on this Arctic sea ice&nbsp;thread seem to put forward this near&nbsp;sublimimal message?.</p>


No, AIMSIR. Perhaps I'm being overly sensitive? Pavlov's dogs and all that....
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Offline AIMSIR  
#850 Posted : 19 September 2013 23:15:59(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: AIMSIR Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post


Is not the early /southerly snow extent not in line with the papers we have been looking at? Surely the stats looking at seasonal difference in temp change clue us up ( if not the R.H. of the global air?),


The thing to look at is how this winter snow impacts spring/summer temps? If the snow (no matter how deep) goes before summer do we not face the 'Albedo flip' forcing we read so much about?




Funny thing, I thought more warmth and more moisture led to more snowfall? It seems that early snowfall is being put forward with a near-subliminal message that it must be getting colder....
Did anyone on this Arctic sea ice thread seem to put forward this near sublimimal message?.




No, AIMSIR. Perhaps I'm being overly sensitive? Pavlov's dogs and all that....
.Wait for the bell old dog.


 

Edited by user 19 September 2013 23:21:15(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline AIMSIR  
#851 Posted : 19 September 2013 23:24:17(UTC)
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I think the CA,might kick off soon.


Very low temps knocking around that region.


The main basin might follow in four or five days after the warm inclusion on the European side backs off.imo.
I hope it does and we can get back to the ice.

Edited by user 19 September 2013 23:29:33(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#852 Posted : 19 September 2013 23:35:11(UTC)
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I think it's time to remind folk of the 'trend line' for ice loss.


We are all pleased to see how the ice cover rebounded this year ( compared to the record low of last year) but does it impact upon the 30 yr 'trend' for sea ice loss in the Arctic Basin over the past 30yrs?

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Offline AIMSIR  
#853 Posted : 19 September 2013 23:39:46(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post


 


We are all pleased to see how the ice cover rebounded this year ( compared to the record low of last year) but does it impact upon the 30 yr 'trend' for sea ice loss in the Arctic Basin over the past 30yrs?


I think it will show up nicely on the winter/ spring trends.


Especially the winter trend,it will almost bring this trend to 2% decade, if not lower by the time we are finished this year's refreeze.imo


It certainly will not impact too much on the annual trend.(for now)


I cut out the "I think it's time to remind folk". bit. (Daddy Wolf) If you don't mind?.


We are all well aware here, of the situation and bright enough not to need need reminders.OK?.

Edited by user 19 September 2013 23:59:37(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Gandalf The White  
#854 Posted : 20 September 2013 00:08:59(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: AIMSIR Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post


 


We are all pleased to see how the ice cover rebounded this year ( compared to the record low of last year) but does it impact upon the 30 yr 'trend' for sea ice loss in the Arctic Basin over the past 30yrs?


I think it will show up nicely on the winter/ spring trends.


Especially the winter trend,it will almost bring this trend to 2% decade, if not lower by the time we are finished this year's refreeze.imo


It certainly will not impact too much on the annual trend.(for now)


I cut out the "I think it's time to remind folk". bit. (Daddy Wolf) If you don't mind?.


We are all well aware here, of the situation and bright enough not to need need reminders.OK?.



Not subliminal enough for you, AIMSIR?


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Offline AIMSIR  
#855 Posted : 20 September 2013 00:23:46(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: AIMSIR Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post


 


We are all pleased to see how the ice cover rebounded this year ( compared to the record low of last year) but does it impact upon the 30 yr 'trend' for sea ice loss in the Arctic Basin over the past 30yrs?


I think it will show up nicely on the winter/ spring trends.


Especially the winter trend,it will almost bring this trend to 2% decade, if not lower by the time we are finished this year's refreeze.imo


It certainly will not impact too much on the annual trend.(for now)


I cut out the "I think it's time to remind folk". bit. (Daddy Wolf) If you don't mind?.


We are all well aware here, of the situation and bright enough not to need need reminders.OK?.



Not subliminal enough for you, AIMSIR?



Oooch, you always pick the best bits.

Edited by user 20 September 2013 00:30:09(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline AIMSIR  
#856 Posted : 20 September 2013 00:38:11(UTC)
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Looking at another trend?.(minimum to maximum area increase)
I think during this year's refreeze season we could get above the 1979/2008 Zero anomaly line in this chart.


For Ref: Cryosphere Today.



http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg


 


Concidering the position/location of the leftover ice this year and the gaps that will be filled as we go through the season,I think we could easilly break through.

Edited by user 20 September 2013 00:52:30(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#857 Posted : 20 September 2013 07:23:37(UTC)
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So you think Barrentsz and Baffin will ice this year Aimsir? How do you envisage such a thing with the ocean temps appearing to call the tune?


As for 'records' are we not facing a very poor 'area' rebuild over winter just by the very fact that there is less open water to freeze this winter ( due to 'rebound' ice cover)? 

Edited by user 20 September 2013 07:25:42(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
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Offline AIMSIR  
#858 Posted : 20 September 2013 10:38:35(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post


So you think Barrentsz and Baffin will ice this year Aimsir? How do you envisage such a thing with the ocean temps appearing to call the tune?


As for 'records' are we not facing a very poor 'area' rebuild over winter just by the very fact that there is less open water to freeze this winter ( due to 'rebound' ice cover)? 


I can see your point on less open water, Gray.


But there still is more open water than normal ready to leak heat away to the winter night.


Especially on the European side.


The rebound certainly cannot be like last years,but I reckon by the trends in the chart I have shown earlier we could expect to take on about 1.25 million overall.


I don't see any reason,btw, why Baffin and Barrents will not ice this year. do you?.


Have you seen the recent trend toward below normal sst anomalies for both the above areas?.


 

Edited by user 20 September 2013 10:52:18(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Online Quantum  
#859 Posted : 20 September 2013 10:58:57(UTC)
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SSTS look above average still, especially in the atlantic sector


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif


The angry reds near noya zemyla have become all too common in recent years. 

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Offline polarwind  
#860 Posted : 20 September 2013 11:09:14(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post


SSTS look above average still, especially in the atlantic sector


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif


The angry reds near noya zemyla have become all too common in recent years. 


Yes and coincident with the Russian observations of increased extent/velocity of NAD/Gulfstream in that area over the last decade or so.

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"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
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"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
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