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Offline nsrobins  
#81 Posted : 30 September 2013 10:17:22(UTC)
nsrobins

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Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

Latest 2 week tropical forecast from Colorado State:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts/september_27_2013.pdf

These boys have put their hands up and called a bust to the earlier predictions of an above average season, but do explain circumstances in detail.

It does of course beg the question: If parameter-specific seasonal forecasts can go so badly wrong, what confidence is there in modeling other areas (namely, 500mb height anomolies for winter in NW Europe?)

I think you answered that question already Neil



Very true, Dave. It was, as they say, rhetorical

Neil

Portsmouth, Hampshire 1m ASL (coast)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline nsrobins  
#82 Posted : 30 September 2013 17:03:18(UTC)
nsrobins

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Well TD11 has just made it to TD Jerry

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/301432.shtml?

A mid-Atalntic game of cat and mouse now as Jerry spins around in a clockwise spiral.

Neil

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Offline Stormchaser  
#83 Posted : 30 September 2013 17:09:18(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

Well TD11 has just made it to TD Jerry

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/301432.shtml?

A mid-Atalntic game of cat and mouse now as Jerry spins around in a clockwise spiral.

Another feeble storm to add to the list. It's no wonder that this thread isn't full of excited analysis this year I suppose it's helpful for me as it means less distraction from my work...

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline nsrobins  
#84 Posted : 03 October 2013 13:42:06(UTC)
nsrobins

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TS Karen at last giving us something to discuss, although shear and ssts will likely limit Karen's intensity as she moves N across the GOM.]

As it stands, Karen will be at worst a Cat 1 hurricane on landfall somewhere near the AL/FL coast around Pensicola in 3 days time.

Neil

Portsmouth, Hampshire 1m ASL (coast)

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Offline Stormchaser  
#85 Posted : 03 October 2013 14:01:39(UTC)
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Karen is exceeding the expectations of many, with data supporting a strong tropical storm at least.

The 06z GFS op run intensified the storm to 988mb, which usually translates to a cat. 2 when it comes to that model. What happened to the high wind shear that was expected? GFS does call it wrong quite often though.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

ElusivePolarLow  
#86 Posted : 05 October 2013 03:45:00(UTC)
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Sadly, Karen decapitated

such violent words from the NHC

it's pretty much Game Over for TS Karen

Offline DEW  
#87 Posted : 05 October 2013 08:47:45(UTC)
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Karen is forecast to add some more life to 'snowstorm Atlas';

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

that might pep up the North Atlantic circulation more than allowed for by current models in the FI future.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline nsrobins  
#88 Posted : 15 October 2013 08:29:28(UTC)
nsrobins

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Another 9 days on and again 'No tropical systems at this time'.

Could we really go through a whole season without a single US landfall hurricane or indeed any TS of note?
And after a forecast of 'above average' activity?

Something strange going on in the neighbourhood methinks.

Neil

Portsmouth, Hampshire 1m ASL (coast)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline doctormog  
#89 Posted : 15 October 2013 08:38:57(UTC)
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Yes it really does look like a notably quiet season unless something changes. In terms of ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) it is on track to be in the quietest ten seasons since 1950 or indeed quietest five if there are no more tropical cyclones before the end of the season.
Offline nsrobins  
#90 Posted : 15 October 2013 09:20:41(UTC)
nsrobins

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Good morning Michael. OT and using this very quiet thread a moment, are we to expect some 'Aberdeen-cams' streaming the arrival of the UK winter soon?

Neil

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Offline doctormog  
#91 Posted : 15 October 2013 09:58:38(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post
<p>Good morning Michael. OT and using this very quiet thread a moment, are we to expect some 'Aberdeen-cams' streaming the arrival of the UK winter soon?</p>

Morning Big smile .

I'm tempted to set one up for myself on an occasional basis this year. However I will leave any Aberdeen camera link posting until there is a more realistic chance of wintry weather on the horizon.

To edge tenuously back on topic..Perhaps all our cyclone activity this year will come from "snowicanes" Clown

Actually, I meant to ask, do the official hurricane season data and statistics include activity that may occur beyond the end of the month? I'm not forecasting any as such but I can't remember if we had November tropical cyclones if they would be included in the 2013 season's data.

Offline nsrobins  
#92 Posted : 15 October 2013 11:36:41(UTC)
nsrobins

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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

Good morning Michael. OT and using this very quiet thread a moment, are we to expect some 'Aberdeen-cams' streaming the arrival of the UK winter soon?



Morning Big smile .

I'm tempted to set one up for myself on an occasional basis this year. However I will leave any Aberdeen camera link posting until there is a more realistic chance of wintry weather on the horizon.

To edge tenuously back on topic..Perhaps all our cyclone activity this year will come from "snowicanes" Clown

Actually, I meant to ask, do the official hurricane season data and statistics include activity that may occur beyond the end of the month? I'm not forecasting any as such but I can't remember if we had November tropical cyclones if they would be included in the 2013 season's data.

We do and they are. The 2009 season for instance:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2009.png

Hurricane Ida tracked across the GOM in the first week of November.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2008.png

In 2008, Hurricane Paloma hit Cuba in November.

All recorded, archived and included in the season stats.

 

Neil

Portsmouth, Hampshire 1m ASL (coast)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline doctormog  
#93 Posted : 15 October 2013 14:23:38(UTC)
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Thanks Neil.
Offline nickl  
#94 Posted : 02 November 2013 07:14:34(UTC)
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Another quiet atlantic season. Was the pacific also quiet or are these supressed conditions limited to the atlantic?

Offline Stormchaser  
#95 Posted : 02 November 2013 20:05:08(UTC)
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The Pacific churned out a series of cat. 5 monsters last month.

Overall, they've had three more tropical storms than the LTA, but four less typhoons.

...so nothing particularly unusual, although I haven't considered the accumulated cyclone energy yet - that being because I can't find any reference to it anywhere.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline nouska  
#96 Posted : 05 November 2013 11:43:27(UTC)
nouska

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Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.

Ryan Maue maintains a page on Basin ACE - latest scores are as follows.

BASIN CURRENT YTD

N. Hemisphere

362.013

Western Pacific

235.218

Central Pacific

6.31

North Atlantic

28.55

Eastern Pacific

69.045

North Indian

22.89

Global

486.3080

You will see the climatology to which this compares in this link.

http://policlimate.com/tropical/

Offline nouska  
#97 Posted : 18 November 2013 23:26:19(UTC)
nouska

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Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.

A quick mention for Melissa - formed this afternoon and classed as a sub-tropical storm. 18Z best track was showing as 60mph.

AL, 14, 2013111818, , BEST, 0, 295N, 540W, 50, 987, SS

Can she make it to hurricane status and boost the meagre stats - seems sub tropical cetegory will not add to ACE.

Model track and intensity forecasts.

http://i.imgur.com/3mDMsCS.png

http://i.imgur.com/Rk6SxzJ.png

Satellite overlays from tonight.

http://i.imgur.com/kFXfmM6.gif

Offline future_is_orange  
#98 Posted : 19 November 2013 11:18:04(UTC)
future_is_orange

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Location: Irvine

I am just back from Riviera Maya in Mexico..spoke to a few locals who said that this summer had been v quiet with regard to storms. Also to note was the very unusual high humidity and rainfall in November which generally is much fresher and dry.

Offline idj20  
#99 Posted : 20 December 2013 18:08:54(UTC)
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Not quite Atlantic-tropical based but thought it was interesting to note that there is not one but two cyclones over the Indian Ocean at the moment: http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day_image/MET-7-0900B.jpg

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