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Steam Fog  
#161 Posted : 13 June 2013 15:33:17(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


The pattern we're in now has been so persistent that it hasn't been too difficult to be accurate - then again thats based on high probabilities rather than a reliable scientific analysis as well.



You say this as though you have been "accurate."

That's very difficult to assess because

A. We are only half way through June and any assessment of accuracy should surely wait till the end of summer or else you are patting yourself on the back before the work is done.
B. At different times you have said different things, always negative, but sometimes dry, sometimes wet.
C. In any case we had a pretty good first week of June (and a not do good second week). But to be accurate you would have had to have said that you expected summer to start with above average maximums, above average sunshine and below average rainfall. Which you didn't.

That's not to say that summer might not be miserable it might be (today won't win any prizes). Then again it might not. But how you can congratulate yourself for accurately predicting a three month period less than two weeks in is something of a mystery to me.
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#162 Posted : 13 June 2013 19:49:34(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


The pattern we're in now has been so persistent that it hasn't been too difficult to be accurate - then again thats based on high probabilities rather than a reliable scientific analysis as well.



You say this as though you have been "accurate."

That's very difficult to assess because

A. We are only half way through June and any assessment of accuracy should surely wait till the end of summer or else you are patting yourself on the back before the work is done.
B. At different times you have said different things, always negative, but sometimes dry, sometimes wet.
C. In any case we had a pretty good first week of June (and a not do good second week). But to be accurate you would have had to have said that you expected summer to start with above average maximums, above average sunshine and below average rainfall. Which you didn't.

That's not to say that summer might not be miserable it might be (today won't win any prizes). Then again it might not. But how you can congratulate yourself for accurately predicting a three month period less than two weeks in is something of a mystery to me.



Depends what and how you define the term - I am referring to the weather we are getting now - this is exactly as I expected. I have to admit that the first few days of the month were a bit unexpected and in a good way as well - but many saw far more sunshine than I got. The past week has been poor - but not as bad as last year.


I am not congratulating myself on anything, and I never said I would, certainly not over the likes of what may well be the 7th poor summer in a row.


 


 


 

Gavin S.
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Steam Fog  
#163 Posted : 13 June 2013 20:34:25(UTC)
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This is silly.

If you are referring to the weather "now" then you are clearly not referring to the seasonal weather.

Refering to the weather "now" conveniently allows you to ignore the weather last week.

If you can come up with any way in which you can at this stage conclude, two weeks into summer, with the confidence you apparently have, on how the next three months will look it would be not just good for you but for mankind more generally if you could share it.

So no more evasion.

Keep in mind though that were you to be fortunate enough to luckily coincide in any prediction that this would in no way validate your "hunch" as being a reliable means for identifying the weather for the next three months.

It is one thing to speculate, but to repeatedly congratulate yourself for having identified the weather pattern months in advance, well before the events have happened is either hubris or delusion.


Offline Downpour  
#164 Posted : 14 June 2013 08:19:23(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post
<p>I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.</p>
<p>yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>


It hasn't though, has it? You doomcasted a wet May/early June and it's been bone dry. We have just come out of a 10-11 day period of abundant sunshine. So in fact your forecasts have been wildly wrong.
Chingford
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Offline Hungry Tiger  
#165 Posted : 14 June 2013 08:24:39(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.


yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.


 




It hasn't though, has it? You doomcasted a wet May/early June and it's been bone dry. We have just come out of a 10-11 day period of abundant sunshine. So in fact your forecasts have been wildly wrong.


 


For goodness sakes - stop trying to make out we're getting a damned heatwave.


May in most cases and especially in the eastern part of the country was dull and miserable. Out of the so called 10 to 11 day period of abundant sunshine - I got just 4 days of decent sunshine out of that followed by 4 consecutive overcast days. Since then the weather has returned to the sort of stuff we have seen a great deal of for most of the past 6 summers going back to 2007.


I said ages ago that this summer will come into the poor category and nothing has made me change that.


 

Gavin S.
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Offline Downpour  
#166 Posted : 14 June 2013 08:31:42(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post
<p>
Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post
</p>
<p>I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.</p>
<p>yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>
<br /><br />It hasn't though, has it? You doomcasted a wet May/early June and it's been bone dry. We have just come out of a 10-11 day period of abundant sunshine. So in fact your forecasts have been wildly wrong.</p>
<p>&nbsp;
</p>
<p>For goodness sakes - stop trying to make out we're getting a damned heatwave.</p>
<p>May in most cases and especially in the eastern part of the country&nbsp;was dull and miserable. Out of the so called 10 to 11 day period of abundant sunshine - I got just 4 days of decent sunshine out of that followed by 4 consecutive overcast days. Since then the weather has returned to the sort of stuff we have seen a great deal of for most of the past 6 summers going back to 2007.</p>
<p>I said ages ago that this summer will come into the poor category and nothing has made me change that.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>



Where on earth did I say heatwave?? What I did say was that your last forecast was wildly wrong, on the upside, which it was.
Chingford
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Offline David M Porter  
#167 Posted : 14 June 2013 08:45:11(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.


yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.


 




It hasn't though, has it? You doomcasted a wet May/early June and it's been bone dry. We have just come out of a 10-11 day period of abundant sunshine. So in fact your forecasts have been wildly wrong.


 


For goodness sakes - stop trying to make out we're getting a damned heatwave.


May in most cases and especially in the eastern part of the country was dull and miserable. Out of the so called 10 to 11 day period of abundant sunshine - I got just 4 days of decent sunshine out of that followed by 4 consecutive overcast days. Since then the weather has returned to the sort of stuff we have seen a great deal of for most of the past 6 summers going back to 2007.


I said ages ago that this summer will come into the poor category and nothing has made me change that.


 



At the risk of being shot down here, all I'll say is that IMO now is not the time to be making definitive statements on this summer. You may well be right Gavin wrt how you believe this summer will turn out ("believe" is the operative word here), and if you are right I shall take my hat off to you. But no-one, not even Brian Gaze or any forecaster worth their salt can know for sure at this moment whether in three months time we'll be praising this summer's weather to the hilt or condemning it in the strongest terms possible.


Let's just wait and see, eh?

Edited by user 14 June 2013 08:57:29(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".
Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)
Offline Matty H  
#168 Posted : 14 June 2013 09:12:54(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: David M Porter Go to Quoted Post
<p>
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post
</p>
<p>
Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post
</p>
<p>I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.</p>
<p>yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>
<br><br>It hasn't though, has it? You doomcasted a wet May/early June and it's been bone dry. We have just come out of a 10-11 day period of abundant sunshine. So in fact your forecasts have been wildly wrong.</p>
<p>&nbsp;
</p>
<p>For goodness sakes - stop trying to make out we're getting a damned heatwave.</p>
<p>May in most cases and especially in the eastern part of the country&nbsp;was dull and miserable. Out of the so called 10 to 11 day period of abundant sunshine - I got just 4 days of decent sunshine out of that followed by 4 consecutive overcast days. Since then the weather has returned to the sort of stuff we have seen a great deal of for most of the past 6 summers going back to 2007.</p>
<p>I said ages ago that this summer will come into the poor category and nothing has made me change that.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>
</p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">At the risk of being shot down here, all I'll say is that IMO now is not the time to be making definitive statements on this summer. You may well be right Gavin wrt how you believe this summer will turn out ("believe" is the operative word here),&nbsp;and if you are right&nbsp;I shall take my hat off to you. But no-one, not even Brian Gaze or any forecaster worth their salt&nbsp;can know <strong>for sure</strong> at this moment whether in three months time we'll be praising this summer's weather to the hilt or condemning it in the strongest terms possible. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Let's just wait and see, eh?<img src="/twocommunity/Images/Emoticons/msp_smile.gif" alt=""></span></p>


I won't take my hat off to anyone for an accurate LRF. It's luck not judgement. Plaudits will become available when the the science makes it more than just sticking a pin in a board
Yate, Nr Bristol


Offline Downpour  
#169 Posted : 14 June 2013 10:49:28(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: David M Porter Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.


yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.


 




It hasn't though, has it? You doomcasted a wet May/early June and it's been bone dry. We have just come out of a 10-11 day period of abundant sunshine. So in fact your forecasts have been wildly wrong.


 


For goodness sakes - stop trying to make out we're getting a damned heatwave.


May in most cases and especially in the eastern part of the country was dull and miserable. Out of the so called 10 to 11 day period of abundant sunshine - I got just 4 days of decent sunshine out of that followed by 4 consecutive overcast days. Since then the weather has returned to the sort of stuff we have seen a great deal of for most of the past 6 summers going back to 2007.


I said ages ago that this summer will come into the poor category and nothing has made me change that.


 



At the risk of being shot down here, all I'll say is that IMO now is not the time to be making definitive statements on this summer. You may well be right Gavin wrt how you believe this summer will turn out ("believe" is the operative word here), and if you are right I shall take my hat off to you. But no-one, not even Brian Gaze or any forecaster worth their salt can know for sure at this moment whether in three months time we'll be praising this summer's weather to the hilt or condemning it in the strongest terms possible.


Let's just wait and see, eh?




I won't take my hat off to anyone for an accurate LRF. It's luck not judgement. Plaudits will become available when the the science makes it more than just sticking a pin in a board


 


Indeed. It's rather like congratualting a roulette player for his "gambling skill" when he puts his house on red and it comes up red. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Offline nouska  
#170 Posted : 14 June 2013 11:22:06(UTC)
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It will be interesting to see how July actually pans out - the top two warmest July months are featured in the analogues as are a couple of stinkers. The ratio is about 3 to 1 in favour of warm/hot.

I know people scoff at such things as pattern matching and analogues but it has been a reasonable predictor of late. The problem lies in our specific longitude seeing the persistence of an anomalous (to climatology) dip in the jet stream over the last few years.
Offline polarwind  
#171 Posted : 14 June 2013 12:27:00(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nouska Go to Quoted Post
It will be interesting to see how July actually pans out - the top two warmest July months are featured in the analogues as are a couple of stinkers. The ratio is about 3 to 1 in favour of warm/hot.

I know people scoff at such things as pattern matching and analogues but it has been a reasonable predictor of late. The problem lies in our specific longitude seeing the persistence of an anomalous (to climatology) dip in the jet stream over the last few years.
Indeed. Only this morning this point has been discussed  here

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
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Offline Hungry Tiger  
#172 Posted : 14 June 2013 16:10:53(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Originally Posted by: David M Porter Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.


yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.


 




It hasn't though, has it? You doomcasted a wet May/early June and it's been bone dry. We have just come out of a 10-11 day period of abundant sunshine. So in fact your forecasts have been wildly wrong.


 


For goodness sakes - stop trying to make out we're getting a damned heatwave.


May in most cases and especially in the eastern part of the country was dull and miserable. Out of the so called 10 to 11 day period of abundant sunshine - I got just 4 days of decent sunshine out of that followed by 4 consecutive overcast days. Since then the weather has returned to the sort of stuff we have seen a great deal of for most of the past 6 summers going back to 2007.


I said ages ago that this summer will come into the poor category and nothing has made me change that.


 



At the risk of being shot down here, all I'll say is that IMO now is not the time to be making definitive statements on this summer. You may well be right Gavin wrt how you believe this summer will turn out ("believe" is the operative word here), and if you are right I shall take my hat off to you. But no-one, not even Brian Gaze or any forecaster worth their salt can know for sure at this moment whether in three months time we'll be praising this summer's weather to the hilt or condemning it in the strongest terms possible.


Let's just wait and see, eh?




 

Gavin S.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#173 Posted : 14 June 2013 16:12:21(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Originally Posted by: polarwind Go to Quoted Post


Originally Posted by: nouska Go to Quoted Post
It will be interesting to see how July actually pans out - the top two warmest July months are featured in the analogues as are a couple of stinkers. The ratio is about 3 to 1 in favour of warm/hot.

I know people scoff at such things as pattern matching and analogues but it has been a reasonable predictor of late. The problem lies in our specific longitude seeing the persistence of an anomalous (to climatology) dip in the jet stream over the last few years.
Indeed. Only this morning this point has been discussed  here



Excellent point - when and if the likes of that is fully understood things will be clearer for everyone.


 

Gavin S.
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Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
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Brummie Snowman  
#174 Posted : 15 June 2013 14:01:34(UTC)
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Although we have had some poor July and August's since 2007, we have not seen an exceptionally cool one (sub 15c CET) since July 1988 and August 1993. Anyone else think we are in with a chance of this happening this summer, especially with the sequence of below average months in 2013 so far?


A yearly maximum below 30ºC in 2013 looks a good bet. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if 2013 records the lowest yearly maximum since 1978.


October 1st 2011's maximum of 29.1ºC here is actually the second warmest day since July 25th 2006. Only July 1st 2009 (Maximum 29.4ºC) has been warmer.

Edited by user 15 June 2013 14:07:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Matty H  
#175 Posted : 16 June 2013 09:25:29(UTC)
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Less than 12 hours ago the forecasts were for a band of rain to struggle to get into southwest England let alone South Wales. 10am and its already there and across most of the southwest. Tell me again about the merits of long range forecasting... LOL
Yate, Nr Bristol


Online Stormchaser  
#176 Posted : 16 June 2013 10:08:53(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post
Less than 12 hours ago the forecasts were for a band of rain to struggle to get into southwest England let alone South Wales. 10am and its already there and across most of the southwest. Tell me again about the merits of long range forecasting... LOL


Funny thing is, GFS has actually had to adjust the rain south a little on the 06z run because the 00z run was a bit too quick with it. For many days it's been showing rain across the south for this morning - I've been following it closely and haven't noticed much change.


So I guess GFS beat 'the forecasts' on this one... but which forecasts are you talking about?




Right, I'm off for a day of eating and drinking with the family

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Offline John S2  
#177 Posted : 16 June 2013 10:55:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post
Less than 12 hours ago the forecasts were for a band of rain to struggle to get into southwest England let alone South Wales. 10am and its already there and across most of the southwest. Tell me again about the merits of long range forecasting... LOL


The first two sentences of this post have no relevance to the third.


Long range forecasting is generally about the probabilities of monthly time periods being drier/wetter and colder/warmer than normal.

Offline Matty H  
#178 Posted : 16 June 2013 11:55:51(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: John S2 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post
Less than 12 hours ago the forecasts were for a band of rain to struggle to get into southwest England let alone South Wales. 10am and its already there and across most of the southwest. Tell me again about the merits of long range forecasting... LOL

The first two sentences of this post have no relevance to the third.
Long range forecasting is generally about the probabilities of monthly time periods being drier/wetter and colder/warmer than normal.


The point is valid. Whatever it's about, it is impossible right now and probably will be for a very long time to come. Also, it is valid, because small short term alteration will obviously affect the longer term
Yate, Nr Bristol


Offline Matty H  
#179 Posted : 16 June 2013 11:58:43(UTC)
Matty H

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Here's another example: 48 hours ago no decent temps were being forecast for next week. If GFS is right we could have a working week of sometimes hot and humid weather. That will affect the end of month figures for CET. Short term alteration affecting long range stats.
Yate, Nr Bristol


Offline Gooner  
#180 Posted : 16 June 2013 12:05:10(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post
Less than 12 hours ago the forecasts were for a band of rain to struggle to get into southwest England let alone South Wales. 10am and its already there and across most of the southwest. Tell me again about the merits of long range forecasting... LOL


Of course the rainfall radar could be misleading. Yesterday showed an area of heavy rain over me , it looked by the echoes to be longer lasting than the 5 minutes suggested .

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