All this talk about not having had a cold summer recently... last year my stats were as follows for maximum temps (the only thing that matters temp wise in summer) against the 1981-2010 average:

June (-2.62C)

July (-1.92C)

August (-0.28C)

If that wasn't cold then heaven help us!

As far as I'm concerned any talk of a cold summer being overdue is just a deliberate attempt to wind up the majority of members who are utterly pig sick of the run of vile summers we've been enduring recently.

The facts speak for themselves and it's a warm, sunny and dry summer that is long overdue

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/14/2012_14_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/14/2011_14_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

2007 was also very cool and though 2008-10 were near average the sunshine/rainfall elements, which in my opinion are more important, were dire. 2009 managed average sunshine, all of the other 5 summers below average and all 6 above average for rainfall.

Last summer had a mean max only 0.2C warmer than 1965 at Dyce and that was the coldest summer on record as clearly shown in this graphic from http://eca.knmi.nl/indicesextremes/index.php

It also shows that the last two successive summers as cold as 2011 and 2012 were 1962 and 1963

The consistency of the summer patterns year-on-year has been disturbing to say the least.

The latest individual CFS run paints a dire picture for a fair bit of June and July, before improving markedly in August - sod's law states that it had to do that to totally contradict the output that I analysed earlier today (though that was an average of many runs).

Nothing could be as bad as last year. June and July last year were in a class of their own. My recollection of those two months was pretty well non stop grey skies and rain.

I've never known two summer months in succession anything like as bad as those two last year.

I am 100% sure that if August hadn't given a slight improvement last summer would have been the worst ever by a mile and a half.

The consistency of the summer patterns year-on-year has been disturbing to say the least.

The latest individual CFS run paints a dire picture for a fair bit of June and July, before improving markedly in August - sod's law states that it had to do that to totally contradict the output that I analysed earlier today (though that was an average of many runs).

Nothing could be as bad as last year. June and July last year were in a class of their own. My recollection of those two months was pretty well non stop grey skies and rain.

I've never known two summer months in succession anything like as bad as those two last year.

I am 100% sure that if August hadn't given a slight improvement last summer would have been the worst ever by a mile and a half.

 

In my area, August was better only in the sense that the first full week of that month (the second week of the Olympics) was a predominantly settled week. Unfortunately, after that week, the weather returned to the same dirge that had destroyed both June and July. An atrocious summer in what was an appalling year for weather.

When you think about it, it would take very extreme, perhaps even impossibly chilly conditions to bring below average day and night temperatures while under unsettled, largely cloudy conditions, so in order to achieve something colder than 2012 there would actually need to be a lot of clear weather about.

The regime of convective cloud building by day and melting away overnight isn't very effective in summer due to how short the nights are - under such conditions I've often observed the cloud not sticking around until about 3pm, which isn't long before the sun rises.

So that leaves high pressure and an Arctic or at least Polar airmass, giving clear, often sunny weather, with only a bit of fair weather cloud building up in the afternoon.  Day temps could hit the high teens but night temps could fall to between 0 and 7°C quite widely, the colder values most likely in June, the less cold values in August.

I don't know about you, but I'd find that to be a pleasant sort of summer compared to recent ones!

The summer of 2007 had an anomaly of -1C here, so I think I can safely say a 'cold' summer is not overdue here.

2008, 2009 and 2010 were all very average. 2009 came in below average, ever so slightly, only because of the cooler nights, both June and August had above average days, especially June. The only thing making these summers less than pleasant is the dullness, and occasionally excess rain. Many of these summer months were also characterised by very mild nights, especially in 2008, a sympton of the dullness we have endured. July 2010 was just horribly humid and clammy.

I guess we're now overdue a sunny summer more than anything, but I certainly don't think we're overdue anything like 2006 - July 2006 was the hottest month ever, I don't expect to see that again for a while,  but hey, who knows. Record months appear to be coming all at once now.

June and July last year were definitely exceptionally cool, June was exceptionally wet and dull in particular with 135mm of rain and less than 90 hours of sun. November 2012 had more sun than June 2012. Considering how long our days are in June compared to November (16-17hrs vs 7-9hrs), that is just an unbelievable figure.

And finally, on a personal note, I dislike heat in general so I won't be hoping for a scorcher this year, though I do appreciate extremes of any kind so I wouldn't be crying if we did get something similar to July 2006 (which was in a league of its own with an average max of 26C at Church Fenton). I actually have fond memories of relaxing in the back garden with friends during the mild evenings as the sun started setting during that hot month, something I cannot do when it is pouring with rain.

FWIW I just noticed this post over on wunderground:

"The Weather Channel's forecast for the summer (just temperature) emphasizes the presence of a blocking high over southeastern Canada. That's a bad place for a high to be during this period because it helps steer tropical cyclones into the United States."

That block over SE Canada is vaguely evident in some of the long range model output, most so in June. It actually fits in nicely with what the analogue years saw in summer. From what I've seen in the past, it tends to mean alternating ridges and troughs across Greenland, reflected in most of the models showing near-normal anomalies to our NW.

Meanwhile, the U.S. could be in for a dangerous early part of the hurricane season - hopefully the season won't start with an early flurry like many recent years. SSTs are conducive to numerous early storms, but other important variables such as dry air and wind shear remain to be discovered.

The summer of 2007 had an anomaly of -1C here, so I think I can safely say a 'cold' summer is not overdue here.

2008, 2009 and 2010 were all very average. 2009 came in below average, ever so slightly, only because of the cooler nights, both June and August had above average days, especially June. The only thing making these summers less than pleasant is the dullness, and occasionally excess rain. Many of these summer months were also characterised by very mild nights, especially in 2008, a sympton of the dullness we have endured. July 2010 was just horribly humid and clammy.

I guess we're now overdue a sunny summer more than anything, but I certainly don't think we're overdue anything like 2006 - July 2006 was the hottest month ever, I don't expect to see that again for a while,  but hey, who knows. Record months appear to be coming all at once now.

June and July last year were definitely exceptionally cool, June was exceptionally wet and dull in particular with 135mm of rain and less than 90 hours of sun. November 2012 had more sun than June 2012. Considering how long our days are in June compared to November (16-17hrs vs 7-9hrs), that is just an unbelievable figure.

And finally, on a personal note, I dislike heat in general so I won't be hoping for a scorcher this year, though I do appreciate extremes of any kind so I wouldn't be crying if we did get something similar to July 2006 (which was in a league of its own with an average max of 26C at Church Fenton). I actually have fond memories of relaxing in the back garden with friends during the mild evenings as the sun started setting during that hot month, something I cannot do when it is pouring with rain.

Nice post - excellent points.

The summer of 2007 had an anomaly of -1C here, so I think I can safely say a 'cold' summer is not overdue here.

2008, 2009 and 2010 were all very average. 2009 came in below average, ever so slightly, only because of the cooler nights, both June and August had above average days, especially June. The only thing making these summers less than pleasant is the dullness, and occasionally excess rain. Many of these summer months were also characterised by very mild nights, especially in 2008, a sympton of the dullness we have endured. July 2010 was just horribly humid and clammy.

I guess we're now overdue a sunny summer more than anything, but I certainly don't think we're overdue anything like 2006 - July 2006 was the hottest month ever, I don't expect to see that again for a while,  but hey, who knows. Record months appear to be coming all at once now.

June and July last year were definitely exceptionally cool, June was exceptionally wet and dull in particular with 135mm of rain and less than 90 hours of sun. November 2012 had more sun than June 2012. Considering how long our days are in June compared to November (16-17hrs vs 7-9hrs), that is just an unbelievable figure.

And finally, on a personal note, I dislike heat in general so I won't be hoping for a scorcher this year, though I do appreciate extremes of any kind so I wouldn't be crying if we did get something similar to July 2006 (which was in a league of its own with an average max of 26C at Church Fenton). I actually have fond memories of relaxing in the back garden with friends during the mild evenings as the sun started setting during that hot month, something I cannot do when it is pouring with rain.

Nice post - excellent points.

 

July 2006 was indeed a memorable month. Prior to that, I had long wondered if July 1983 would ever be beaten as the hottest month ever. One or two summer months in the 90's came close I think, one of them IIRC was August 1995. But none either equalled or surpassed July '83, until that same month nearly 7 years ago.

This summer will be what will be whatever that is.

This summer will be what will be whatever that is.

Indeed it will.  That will not stop weather enthusiasts, on a weather forum, analysing and speculating on what the following weeks, months and seasons may bring.

This summer will be what will be whatever that is.

Indeed it will.  That will not stop weather enthusiasts, on a weather forum, analysing and speculating on what the following weeks, months and seasons may bring.

Yep.

If the Summer ended up like today then I wouldn't complain, not too hot, just right

The summer of 2007 had an anomaly of -1C here, so I think I can safely say a 'cold' summer is not overdue here.

2008, 2009 and 2010 were all very average. 2009 came in below average, ever so slightly, only because of the cooler nights, both June and August had above average days, especially June. The only thing making these summers less than pleasant is the dullness, and occasionally excess rain. Many of these summer months were also characterised by very mild nights, especially in 2008, a sympton of the dullness we have endured. July 2010 was just horribly humid and clammy.

I guess we're now overdue a sunny summer more than anything, but I certainly don't think we're overdue anything like 2006 - July 2006 was the hottest month ever, I don't expect to see that again for a while,  but hey, who knows. Record months appear to be coming all at once now.

June and July last year were definitely exceptionally cool, June was exceptionally wet and dull in particular with 135mm of rain and less than 90 hours of sun. November 2012 had more sun than June 2012. Considering how long our days are in June compared to November (16-17hrs vs 7-9hrs), that is just an unbelievable figure.

And finally, on a personal note, I dislike heat in general so I won't be hoping for a scorcher this year, though I do appreciate extremes of any kind so I wouldn't be crying if we did get something similar to July 2006 (which was in a league of its own with an average max of 26C at Church Fenton). I actually have fond memories of relaxing in the back garden with friends during the mild evenings as the sun started setting during that hot month, something I cannot do when it is pouring with rain.

Nice post - excellent points.

 

July 2006 was indeed a memorable month. Prior to that, I had long wondered if July 1983 would ever be beaten as the hottest month ever. One or two summer months in the 90's came close I think, one of them IIRC was August 1995. But none either equalled or surpassed July '83, until that same month nearly 7 years ago.

I don't think I've sweated so much as I did during July 2006 ha ha, god knows what it must of been like in Manchester city centre during the night times, was bad enough here with open spaces. I like warmth but not the 30C plus during that heatwave.

If the Summer ended up like today then I wouldn't complain, not too hot, just right

I go along with that one very well.

Is anyone else getting the impression from the lrf models that this summer will be controlled by blocking to the NE, making for a change from recent years when they were steered by blocking to the NW?

I'd just like to know if I'm out on a limb or not

When you think about it, it would take very extreme, perhaps even impossibly chilly conditions to bring below average day and night temperatures while under unsettled, largely cloudy conditions, so in order to achieve something colder than 2012 there would actually need to be a lot of clear weather about.

The regime of convective cloud building by day and melting away overnight isn't very effective in summer due to how short the nights are - under such conditions I've often observed the cloud not sticking around until about 3pm, which isn't long before the sun rises.

So that leaves high pressure and an Arctic or at least Polar airmass, giving clear, often sunny weather, with only a bit of fair weather cloud building up in the afternoon.  Day temps could hit the high teens but night temps could fall to between 0 and 7°C quite widely, the colder values most likely in June, the less cold values in August.

I don't know about you, but I'd find that to be a pleasant sort of summer compared to recent ones!

A dry one would be good. With the odd fall of rain at night

Is anyone else getting the impression from the lrf models that this summer will be controlled by blocking to the NE, making for a change from recent years when they were steered by blocking to the NW?

I'd just like to know if I'm out on a limb or not

Yep...very much so, I'm with you SC.

Looking at the longer range charts being churned out we have to concede that the weather patterns are remaining broadly similar to the recent winter patterns we have just experienced. The big difference from now on is that bitter continental airmasses will be replaced with stifling continental airmasses as we progress into summer.

My reckoning (hunch) is for a Moscow 2010 style of heat wave affecting the UK this summer, courtesy of blocking to the NE and occasional but noteworthy wafts of extreme heat courtesy of the meridonal aspects that have prevailed for some time now.

Is anyone else getting the impression from the lrf models that this summer will be controlled by blocking to the NE, making for a change from recent years when they were steered by blocking to the NW?

I'd just like to know if I'm out on a limb or not

No good at LRFing personally, but that seems to fit with the praviling tendencies of the last 3 or 4 months. I have to say I would happily bank a summer with a NE Euro block. I think a few of the convection enthusiasts might too if the occasional sliding low gets involved.

Is anyone else getting the impression from the lrf models that this summer will be controlled by blocking to the NE, making for a change from recent years when they were steered by blocking to the NW?

I'd just like to know if I'm out on a limb or not

I sure hope you're right on that one, SC. A summer with blocking to the NE would suit me nicely.