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ECM pretty cold from day 8 with the north easterly in place and it looks like trough to drop through afterwards. Plus GEFS again full of promise and numbers growing each day as 5th feb onwards could be interesting.Martin
I wonder if the GFS 12z op run was something of a mild outlier? It is certainly vastly different to the ECM 12z by 240hrs.
UKMO extended
FWIW its not hard to find out why
Ecm snow totals have over a foot for parts of the South on this run.
Massive snow event at day 9 from the ECM, who's up for another chase then?http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html
Massive snow event at day 9 from the ECM, who's up for another chase then?
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html
A thing of beauty.
ECM has cool and damp written all over it for my neck of the woods - not sure I can get that excited about another rain with maybe a little back edge snow event whilst somewhere North of me gets buried
Given the rather different GFS at the same time frame I'd want to see it carry on with the same theme tomorrow + Tuesday AM and PM before I start to magnanimously look forward to other people getting excited about their snow
It would though be interesting if ECM had the general pattern right - GFS has seemed to be generally flatter this year and often has to correct back to a more amplified pattern so it's not to say the ECM is wrong <shrug>
Latter stages of gfs look interesting for one snow and cold
Yes potentially a good set up but in a few hours time the 00z run of the GFS will come out and this eye candy Scandi HP could vanish! Either way we are looking at some settled weather as we head toward the end of Jan into Feb and about bloody time too!! I'd be keen to see what the BBC MOnthly outlook will have to say tomorrow.
I’m finding this winter so far in my neck of the woods very reminiscent of 1985. Nothing of note until mid January when there was a transient temporary wet snow event much like today. A few weeks later and into February and we were buried in drifting powder snow!
Where is that from?
It's not what this is showing:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018012112/great-britain/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180131-1200z.html
Where is that from?It's not what this is showing:https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018012112/great-britain/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180131-1200z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018012112/great-britain/snow-depth-in/20180131-1200z.html
Though not really southern England as its more Midlands
Some really cold runs on the ENS
I don't mind getting HP over us in the hope it will drift into a favourable position
The big question this week is will Georgina arrive? After last week's debacle I think the odds are tipped in favour.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018012112/great-britain/snow-depth-in/20180131-1200z.html Though not really southern England as its more Midlands
Still very much FI - the snow doesn't appear until approx T+216 - and for every optimistic FI forecast there's a pessimistic one. GFS 0z synoptics suggest dry and average temps at about that time with HP to the west of us. Keep watching but don't hold your breath!
By next weekend, signs of HP settling close to the UK and perhaps more settled in the S. Perhaps a little colder too.
That leaves February as the last hope for any real E'ly outbreak.
Q: Am I confident of the Beast arriving?
A: As a winter poster only, I think today will be my last post until the end of next summer, ca. November
UKMO extended pretty much the same as the past few days with high pressure extending up from the south leaving the UK in a milder set-up