Met Office Hadley           13.3c.         Anomaly        2.3c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                        13.12c.       Anomaly        2.61c.

Netweather                     13.57c,       Anomaly        3.18c.

Peasedown st john         13.6c.          Anomaly       3.00c.    

What a tipsy turvy couple of months we’ve had. I wasn’t doing too badly up to August but took a slide last month due to over predicting and this month I’ve gone way too low. 

Still, I’m not complaining. At least the heating bills will benefit. 

Originally Posted by: Caz

What a tipsy turvy couple of months we’ve had. I wasn’t doing too badly up to August but took a slide last month due to over predicting and this month I’ve gone way too low. 

Still, I’m not complaining. At least the heating bills will benefit. 

Likewise CAZ-a rapid fall from top ten expected for me courtesy of being way too low in October!

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman

Met Office Hadley         13.3c.           Anomaly        2.3c.

Metcheck                      13.06c.         Anomaly        2.55c.

Netweather                   13.56c.         Anomaly        3.17c.

Peasedown  St John     13.5c.           Anomaly        3.1c.   

Could the race for warmest come down to end of month adjustment.Any thoughts on whether an up or down adjustment is likely?

Met Office Hadley              13.2c.          Anomaly         2.3c.   Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                           12.97c.        Anomaly         2.46c.

Netweather                        13.54c.        Anomaly         3.11c.

Peasedown St John         13.5c.        Anomaly           3.1c.

Just looked back to the October CET Prediction chart.  Highest Prediction  is  12.20c.    

Met Office Hadley            13.0c.          Anomaly          2.2c.  Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                          12.82c.        Anomaly            2.31c.

Netweather                       13.27c.        Anomaly            2.88c.

Peasedown St John           13.4c.          Anomaly           3.2c.        

Well at least nobody need feel foolish; if there's one thing this competition proves it's that it's not a reasonable expectation to be able to reliably predict a whole month in advance with an error of less than 1.5*C, although with a good bit of luck you might manage most of the months in one of the years.

Think of it this way for example; the change to chillier weather that we're now seeing could easily have taken place a week ago, in which case the CET movement would have been down instead of up, and we'd probably have finished somewhere in the 11s. 

Long-range guidance had it occurring around that time, but without it having been quite so balmy mid-month. Extremes like that are tough as nails to spot coming in advance although I'll admit that some experimental ways of looking at the MJO and Kelvin Waves do on reflection appear to give some suggestion of anomalously TM-orientated air flows across the UK. Even after more than a decade of increasingly intense involvement in meteorology, I'm still learning!

Originally Posted by: Caz

Looks like a month where every one of us went too high and I think we all went too high in September.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this year’s final table will be the one we all had the greatest prediction error. 

Its been a tricky year 

Originally Posted by: Gusty

 

Its been a tricky year 

I meant to say we all went too low in September of course. 

It makes it all the more difficult to anticipate the remaining two months.