Thanks for this - some very interesting statistics which suggest we're seeing the potential for a truly exceptional event should it come together. GFS 12z was in the right ballpark for this but ECM 12z both directed the peak warmth west of the UK and introduced anticyclonic conditions to a great enough extent for the overnight minimums to drop away quite a bit. So it's far from sorted yet .

I agree SC; and a few runs have hinted at a northerly outbreak at the start of the new month- if the tendency is there, who's to say that couldn't slip this way in time a little? With 13.8 changing to 13.6 over the course of a day (and the day that did it wasn't really that cold- just colder than what we've had), an equivalent drop daily for the rest of the month would take the temperature down to the mid elevens; I hope that is as unlikely as this evening's GFS suggests.

Then came the 00z GFS. Optimal setup for bringing exceptionally warm air our way and with low enough moisture to allow some sun each day lifting temps widely into the high teens with a few spots into the low 20s each day 26th-29th and with already very mild conditions having occurred 23rd-25th.

Result from the raw numbers is a monthly CET estimate at least a little above 13.5*C and around 3*C above the LTA. Truly exceptional.

ECM breaks the southerly down on 27th so it remains far from sorted whether we'll be challenging records or just having a very mild month on our hands.

Metcheck                 13.27c.        Anomaly        2.76c.

Netweather              13.69c.        Anomaly        3.3c.

Peasedown St John  13.6c.          Anomaly        3.0c.

Still time to get down to the required 11.7c. ....... 

Then came the 00z GFS. Optimal setup for bringing exceptionally warm air our way and with low enough moisture to allow some sun each day lifting temps widely into the high teens with a few spots into the low 20s each day 26th-29th and with already very mild conditions having occurred 23rd-25th.

Result from the raw numbers is a monthly CET estimate at least a little above 13.5*C and around 3*C above the LTA. Truly exceptional.

ECM breaks the southerly down on 27th so it remains far from sorted whether we'll be challenging records or just having a very mild month on our hands.

In a way, I actually find it a bit disappointing that this October is running for the record warmest. It doesn't feel like it's been a particularly warm, summery October (the only exception to this could be last weekend). In fact it's felt quite chilly and been fairly cloudy and wet around here. Contrast this one to some of the other record or near-record breakers and it's vastly different.

October 1921 had that incredible heat wave in the first 10 days, with nearly every day above 25C across the country. Even after the main heat it remained pleasantly warm and sunny for the most part with thunderstorms at times.

Octobers 1959 and 1969 again had lots of warm, dry weather with even exceptional warmth at times as well. Again, October 1995 followed similar suit also.

To put it simply, this one doesn't feel like it "deserves" the record.

Despite high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over the Azores we seem to be on the warm side of a block, the GFS 06Z is especially warm and will surely smash CET records in the process.

I reckon November could be one of those mild months with a negative NAO, like November 1995... a repeat of that winter would sure be nice .

Anyway enough of that, fingers crossed the 06z comes off and we can get all of the above average temperatures out of the way before winter comes .

 

In a way, I actually find it a bit disappointing that this October is running for the record warmest. It doesn't feel like it's been a particularly warm, summery October (the only exception to this could be last weekend). In fact it's felt quite chilly and been fairly cloudy and wet around here. Contrast this one to some of the other record or near-record breakers and it's vastly different.

October 1921 had that incredible heat wave in the first 10 days, with nearly every day above 25C across the country. Even after the main heat it remained pleasantly warm and sunny for the most part with thunderstorms at times.

Octobers 1959 and 1969 again had lots of warm, dry weather with even exceptional warmth at times as well. Again, October 1995 followed similar suit also.

To put it simply, this one doesn't feel like it "deserves" the record.

That's the underlying warming trend at work.  When you look at the anomalies of ocean temperatures and land based anomalies they are very much positive.  The freakish thing was our cool late summer and September, where we were" swimming against the tide".  Now we are going with the flow.  Nice and easy for the warmest October on record.

 That's the underlying warming trend at work.  When you look at the anomalies of ocean temperatures and land based anomalies they are very much positive.  The freakish thing was our cool late summer and September, where we were" swimming against the tide".  Now we are going with the flow.  Nice and easy for the warmest October on record.

Well put. The warmth is effortless these days.

To be fair the existing record holder , 2001, was not exactly a great month either considering it was a record breaker. It was wet, dull and miserable with some flooding at the end, and it was it's consistently high minima that gave it the edge over more spectacular warm Octobers like 1995. And we have come close to breaking the record several times since with some other rather gloomy /wet editions (eg 2005, 2006). It seems the link between sunny/dry and warm breaks down about now, not to return until March...   

Met Office Hadley             13.4c.           Anomaly          2.2c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                           13.21c.        Anomaly           2.70c.

Netweather                        13.64c.        Anomaly           3.25c.

Peasedown St John              13.6c.            Anomaly         3.0c.                      

To be fair the existing record holder , 2001, was not exactly a great month either considering it was a record breaker. It was wet, dull and miserable with some flooding at the end, and it was it's consistently high minima that gave it the edge over more spectacular warm Octobers like 1995. And we have come close to breaking the record several times since with some other rather gloomy /wet editions (eg 2005, 2006). It seems the link between sunny/dry and warm breaks down about now, not to return until March...   

I remember October 2001 well and at least in London we had many sunny, warm days including one or two real (relative) scorchers. This month has been rather unexciting except for the zombie apolalypse last Monday. Certainly not very sunny. Last weekend was nice though.

Met Office Hadley                 13.4c.        Anomaly         2.2c.   Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                              13.13c.      Anomaly         2.62c.

Netweather                           13.61c.      Anomaly         3.21c.

Peasedown St John              13.5c.        Anomaly       3.1c.

Until a few days ago it was looking possible that the record would be smashed. The runs of the last few days have increasingly suggested pressure shifting west and a temperature tumble. With 9 days still to go, even CETs of just 2C less than the current running mean would drop the temperature by 0.6C.

Can we stay above 13?

Looks like a tumble Friday onward...

Met Office Hadley            13.3c.         Anomaly        2.1c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                         13.00c.       Anomaly         2.49c.

Netweather                      13.48c.       Anomaly         3.09c.

Peasedown St John          13.4c.         Anomaly        3.2c.

Yesterday was a little chilly- accounts for the drop. But at least it's still a slow drop currently.

Met Office Hadley             13.2c.           Anomaly         2.1c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                          13.04c.         Anomaly         2.53c.

Netweather                       13.47c.         Anomaly         3.08c.

Peasedown St John         13.5c.           Anomaly        3.1c  

Having the same problem on the Hadley site for CET as I complained about a week or so ago. What I get when I open, for example, the estimated current for this month, is a spray of numbers written prosaically across the page rather than in columns.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat

The formatting has gone. It's the same with the first 5 tabs on the opening page (mean HADcet data) but not the next three (ranked, seasonal, etc). If it was my machine, I should have thought that the whole set would be affected. Any ideas?

Having the same problem on the Hadley site for CET as I complained about a week or so ago. What I get when I open, for example, the estimated current for this month, is a spray of numbers written prosaically across the page rather than in columns.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat

 

The formatting has gone. It's the same with the first 5 tabs on the opening page (mean HADcet data) but not the next three (ranked, seasonal, etc). If it was my machine, I should have thought that the whole set would be affected. Any ideas?

Not sure what is causing that. I am not finding any such issues. Formatting is fine.

Met Office Hadley             13.2c.           Anomaly         2.1c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                          13.04c.         Anomaly         2.53c.

Netweather                       13.47c.         Anomaly         3.08c.

Peasedown St John         13.5c.           Anomaly        3.1c  

What figure are we shooting for to get anew record?Is it the 13.3 achieved in 2001?