Metcheck                      13.40c.            Anomaly          2.89c. 

Netweather                   13.73c.            Anomaly          3.34c.

Peasedown St John.      14.0c.             Anomaly           3.4c.

In regards to the Met Office CET, I got this reply from the Met Office.

This is not an operational system so no guarantees this will be kept 100% up to date. We're upgrading and refreshing the CET system and so a new improved set of HadCET web-pages should be in operation by next year. Hope this helps!

Though they say this is not an operational system, it is a public service and they are custodians of the dataset which they should provide. How do you think I should reply?

I also had a reply this morning which is a bit more helpful than the one you got. Mine came from the National Climate Information Centre.

The automatic CET system has a technical problem at the moment which is why there are no updates at present. Current estimate for a repair is later this week or possibly early next week. So we will have to continue being patient.

On the wider point about an upgrade to the extent of data provided, this work was completed earlier in the year. Before the extra data is made public they intend to publish a peer reviewed article in a scientific journal to ensure the data and methodology is properly scrutinised and quality checked before being made available to the public. This will take some time so it will be well into 2018 before we start to see any changes.

I also had a reply this morning which is a bit more helpful than the one you got. Mine came from the National Climate Information Centre.

The automatic CET system has a technical problem at the moment which is why there are no updates at present. Current estimate for a repair is later this week or possibly early next week. So we will have to continue being patient.

On the wider point about an upgrade to the extent of data provided, this work was completed earlier in the year. Before the extra data is made public they intend to publish a peer reviewed article in a scientific journal to ensure the data and methodology is properly scrutinised and quality checked before being made available to the public. This will take some time so it will be well into 2018 before we start to see any changes.

Thanks Simon for that useful information.

Met Office Hadley           13.7c.          Anomaly         2.1c.      Provisional  to 15th...      

I also had a reply this morning which is a bit more helpful than the one you got. Mine came from the National Climate Information Centre.

The automatic CET system has a technical problem at the moment which is why there are no updates at present. Current estimate for a repair is later this week or possibly early next week. So we will have to continue being patient.

On the wider point about an upgrade to the extent of data provided, this work was completed earlier in the year. Before the extra data is made public they intend to publish a peer reviewed article in a scientific journal to ensure the data and methodology is properly scrutinised and quality checked before being made available to the public. This will take some time so it will be well into 2018 before we start to see any changes.

Cheers Simon, technical problem is better than I got and definitely more helpful. Looks like it worked as they have updated the page now 

Yes just had a follow up email to say problem resolved. So hopefully the daily updates will now resume

Met Office Hadley           13.7c.          Anomaly         2.1c.      Provisional  to 15th...      

Well done to all those who posted a comment, contacted the MetO, etc. I'm sure, to varying degrees, all of this helped to bring about the miracle that was the end of the technical problem.

In regards to the Met Office CET, I got this reply from the Met Office.

This is not an operational system so no guarantees this will be kept 100% up to date. We're upgrading and refreshing the CET system and so a new improved set of HadCET web-pages should be in operation by next year. Hope this helps!

Though they say this is not an operational system, it is a public service and they are custodians of the dataset which they should provide. How do you think I should reply?

The only way to deal with that would be to file a FOI request daily; that would certainly jerk things into action but, sadly, that process is too time-consuming for all but the most tenacious!

Now that the October CET has resumed, I noticed from the provisional data for the Daily Minimum temperatures that the overnight Min for October 14th was 15.7C

If this is confirmed I believe this is a record high for any October daily Min

It would be fairly humid for a warm July night

Comparing where we are now with the end of September model signals (from ten sources, no less), it seems we have as little hope as ever using computers to predict the way the month ahead will evolve an anything below a very broad scale - one too broad to be effective for a slice of the hemisphere as narrow as that in which we reside.

A sad truth in one light, but in another, it keeps things more entertaining as we watch things unfold!  

By locking-in a broad trough west of Iberia in the 8-16 day range and with even better orientation than the 00z for pumping warm air over to us from well south, the GFS 06z raw numbers lead to a final CET estimate of 13.1 to 13.6*C. That's roughly 2.5 to 3.0*C above the LTA!

ECM takes a more high-pressure dominated approach to achieving flows from the south, so it may not be quite so balmy, indeed surely by night it must be cooler (not got time to examine that US site for details).

Still - odds are shortening on October coming in at least 2*C above the LTA. It even has a shot at beating the September CET.

This begs the question - how often historically has the October CET been higher than the September CET? 

Met Office Hadley              13.8c.       Anomaly       2.3c.  Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                           13.47c.     Anomaly       2.96c.

Netweather                        13.89c.     Anomaly       3.5c.

Peasedown St John         14.0c.       Anomaly       3.4c.

So could we beat the 2001 record for the warmest October ever? October was very close to the September average that year.

By locking-in a broad trough west of Iberia in the 8-16 day range and with even better orientation than the 00z for pumping warm air over to us from well south, the GFS 06z raw numbers lead to a final CET estimate of 13.1 to 13.6*C. That's roughly 2.5 to 3.0*C above the LTA!

ECM takes a more high-pressure dominated approach to achieving flows from the south, so it may not be quite so balmy, indeed surely by night it must be cooler (not got time to examine that US site for details).

Still - odds are shortening on October coming in at least 2*C above the LTA. It even has a shot at beating the September CET.

 

This begs the question - how often historically has the October CET been higher than the September CET? 

1986 came fairly close, along with 2001 as was mentioned; but I had to scroll back to 1807 to actually get one. October was almost a degree warmer than a very cold September, and had it not been for October, the 4 month period from Sep to Dec could have been in the chiller. November was bitterly cold. A fascinating autumn- I wonder if there are any articles about it?

One of the problems I found going back through the 20th century was that almost every really cool Sep was followed by a cold, or at best near average October. Then through the 19th C there were barely any 10C + Octobers at all. I think the LT average for the autumn months drops steeply month by month compared with the rise in spring.

Met Office Hadley             13.8c.        Anomaly     2.8c.  Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                          13.35c.      Anomaly     2.84c.

Netweather                       13.8c.        Anomaly     3.41c.

Peasedown St John        13.8c.       Anomaly      3.2c. 

1986 came fairly close, along with 2001 as was mentioned; but I had to scroll back to 1807 to actually get one. October was almost a degree warmer than a very cold September, and had it not been for October, the 4 month period from Sep to Dec could have been in the chiller. November was bitterly cold. A fascinating autumn- I wonder if there are any articles about it?

One of the problems I found going back through the 20th century was that almost every really cool Sep was followed by a cold, or at best near average October. Then through the 19th C there were barely any 10C + Octobers at all. I think the LT average for the autumn months drops steeply month by month compared with the rise in spring.

Thanks for this - some very interesting statistics which suggest we're seeing the potential for a truly exceptional event should it come together. GFS 12z was in the right ballpark for this but ECM 12z both directed the peak warmth west of the UK and introduced anticyclonic conditions to a great enough extent for the overnight minimums to drop away quite a bit. So it's far from sorted yet .

Met Office Hadley            13.6c.         Anomaly       2.2c. Provisional to 18th. 

Metcheck                         13.28c.       Anomaly       2.77c.

Netweather                      13.68c.       Anomaly       3.29c.

Peasedown St John             13.7c.        Anomaly       3.1c.

Met Office Hadley            13.6c.         Anomaly       2.2c. Provisional to 18th. 

Metcheck                         13.28c.       Anomaly       2.77c.

Netweather                      13.68c.       Anomaly       3.29c.

Peasedown St John             13.7c.        Anomaly       3.1c.

Thats amazing for this time of the month.

Great to see Hadley up and running.