By locking-in a broad trough west of Iberia in the 8-16 day range and with even better orientation than the 00z for pumping warm air over to us from well south, the GFS 06z raw numbers lead to a final CET estimate of 13.1 to 13.6*C. That's roughly 2.5 to 3.0*C above the LTA!
ECM takes a more high-pressure dominated approach to achieving flows from the south, so it may not be quite so balmy, indeed surely by night it must be cooler (not got time to examine that US site for details).
Still - odds are shortening on October coming in at least 2*C above the LTA. It even has a shot at beating the September CET.
This begs the question - how often historically has the October CET been higher than the September CET?
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On