doctormog
25 September 2017 12:06:59

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Mount Agung in Indonesia set to blow. Anyone know if this fella has a super-eruption in it?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/24/bali-volcano-34000-flee-mount-agung-as-tremors-intensify


 



I doubt it from what I have read. It erupted in 1963/4 but that was “only” VEI 5. I’m not sure there is much evidence of anything significantly larger historically (or climatically) but I will have a bit more of a look. 


Edit: Interestingly a brief search in the academic literature suggests that the 1963 eruption, albeit comparatively small, seemed to have a significant impact on global temperatures (to a similiar magnitude to the much more significant Krakatoa and Tambora eruptions!)


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0033589482900655 


Gooner
25 September 2017 13:01:30

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


It winds people up because it's such a short time sample that it's meaningless - and the suspicion is that the originator of the saying uses it to bait people in a "Ha! Ha! You're not going to get snow so [blows raspberry] to you"


FWIW, the period 2008/9 to 2012/13 contained three of the best winters of my 45 years (including two consecutive Xmas periods with thick snow on the ground). If that's how modern winters will pan out, then sign me up.


I'd take 2005-2016 over many winter periods - especially 1988-1999, which was bloody awful for snow IMBY.



Totally agree Saint , 2005 - 2016 were good years ..................zillion times better than 88 - 99


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
25 September 2017 16:55:07

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Totally agree Saint , 2005 - 2016 were good years ..................zillion times better than 88 - 99



No midwinter easterlies = no powder snow, no icicles etc here.


The 88-99 period saw "the wrong kind of snow" (and over a foot of poweder here) in 91, as well as the surprise November 93 snow (6 inches), along with 95/6 and 96/7, the last midwinter easterly and the last time icicles were seen here. Let's not forget, either, that December 95 equalled the all-time UK record low.


IF you rely on easterlies to get decent snow, as I do, everything post January 1997 (with the possible exception of the slushy late Feb 2005) was utter rubbish in comparison.


Leysdown, north Kent
TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
25 September 2017 17:28:52

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


I doubt it from what I have read. It erupted in 1963/4 but that was “only” VEI 5. I’m not sure there is much evidence of anything significantly larger historically (or climatically) but I will have a bit more of a look. 


Edit: Interestingly a brief search in the academic literature suggests that the 1963 eruption, albeit comparatively small, seemed to have a significant impact on global temperatures (to a similiar magnitude to the much more significant Krakatoa and Tambora eruptions!)


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0033589482900655 



 


Tropical eruptions that reach the stratosphere do produce global cooling but tend to favour mild wet winters in western Europe with cool wet summers too.

Gooner
25 September 2017 18:01:22

Fair point Darren but as most winter fans I was talking IMBY 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
25 September 2017 19:23:18

The death of the midwinter easterly is the measure of proper snow down here. Its been so long since we've had one that I suspect any cold weather fan under the age of 30 would not realise just what they are capable of.


Icicles, powder snow, dark grey/ orangy skies interspersed by days of alpine blue ones. Canals frozen deep, compacted snow on the footways turned grey through pedestrian usage.


Daytime maxes of -5c (23f)..mins below -10c (14f)..all such a long time ago now but were once far more regular.


Excitement regarding winter potential has receded year on year for me in recent years..the whole watching and waiting becomes tiresome. Its enough to turn you into a mildy. That way you can no longer get disappointed. 


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scillydave
25 September 2017 20:16:09

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Excitement regarding winter potential has receded year on year for me in recent years..the whole watching and waiting becomes tiresome. Its enough to turn you into a mildy. That way you can no longer get disappointed. 



Steady Steve, this is how it all starts, you begin by thinking maybe I'm better off as a mildly and the next thing you know you're scanning the charts for a southerly feed in January whilst wetting your pants over a cheeky damp grey grizzly 16c in mid December.  It's not somewhere anyone wants you to go mate - step back from the mild side. You know there's always help out there if you need it, we're a supportive community - Bjorli can live stream through the winter if we get another 1989 and there's always the Stelvio pass Web Cam if you need a quick fix. Stay true - winter is coming.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Gusty
25 September 2017 21:08:05

Originally Posted by: scillydave 


 Steady Steve, this is how it all starts, you begin by thinking maybe I'm better off as a mildly and the next thing you know you're scanning the charts for a southerly feed in January whilst wetting your pants over a cheeky damp grey grizzly 16c in mid December.  It's not somewhere anyone wants you to go mate - step back from the mild side. You know there's always help out there if you need it, we're a supportive community - Bjorli can live stream through the winter if we get another 1989 and there's always the Stelvio pass Web Cam if you need a quick fix. Stay true - winter is coming.



 Thanks for the support Dave. Together as a community we must keep the faith.  


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Andy Woodcock
25 September 2017 22:10:29

Originally Posted by: TomC 


 


 


Tropical eruptions that reach the stratosphere do produce global cooling but tend to favour mild wet winters in western Europe with cool wet summers too.



Makes you wonder how the hell you can ever get a cold winter in western Europe as most things El Nina,  El Nino, Volcanic eruptions etc favour a mild winter!


Yet they do occur but no one ever sees them coming, strange that.


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Plumpton
Penrith
Cumbria
Altitude 435 feet
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KevBrads1
26 September 2017 03:05:13

Originally Posted by: TomC 


 


 


Tropical eruptions that reach the stratosphere do produce global cooling but tend to favour mild wet winters in western Europe with cool wet summers too.



Has anyone studied how much impact the 2009 Sarychev eruption had on the following seasons? Winter 2009-10 was the coldest for 31 years at least for the CET, the northerly blocking during 2010 was strong. The volcanic sunsets it produced were stunning.


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Retron
26 September 2017 05:39:35

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


The death of the midwinter easterly is the measure of proper snow down here. Its been so long since we've had one that I suspect any cold weather fan under the age of 30 would not realise just what they are capable of.


Icicles, powder snow, dark grey/ orangy skies interspersed by days of alpine blue ones. Canals frozen deep, compacted snow on the footways turned grey through pedestrian usage.



I'd imagine we'll never see those orangey skies again - as that would surely have been reflected streetlights. These days the lights seem to be pink or white rather than orange, so I'm guessing we'd get an ominous white glow instead! (And yes, I'd love to put the theory to the test).


As for your under 30 comment, that's a good one IMO. I remember the infamous "blue suns" on the BBC weather and it's been a long time since they, or their modern equivalent, appeared down here. The odd few ice days since the 90s have invariably been due to cloud blocking the sun rather than deep cold advection from the east, so as soon as the sun comes out - bam, temperatures shoot above freezing.



(This screencap is from the end of the Feb 86 cold spell.)


As for chasing the cold, I admit it does get a bit tiresome these days - the pattern of a slight hope (a smattering of -10s at 850) invariably warms up before the time, or the just-about-snowbearing -7s end up as cold rain -5s. I won't stop the chase, for it's part of winter for me, but it has lost its lustre somewhat since 2005.


Talking of which, I think it was Justin W who posted a few years back. He said that Philip Eden, back in 2005 as the easterly was unfolding, said to him to make the most of it as he might not see another. 12 years on and he's been right so far!


I'm sure we will see another midwinter easterly one day (and it wouldn't surprise me if it turned out to be 2 or 3 winters in a row with one), but the way things are going I wonder if it'll be in my lifetime!


 


Leysdown, north Kent
RJBingham
26 September 2017 07:07:31

Don't know if this adds anything?


 


Bali volcano: Here's why the Earth will get a little cooler after Mount Agung erupts


 


 


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-26/how-volcanic-eruptions-can-affect-world-temperatures-mount-agung/8987770


 


 

Brian Gaze
26 September 2017 07:18:48

Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


No midwinter easterlies = no powder snow, no icicles etc here.


The 88-99 period saw "the wrong kind of snow" (and over a foot of poweder here) in 91, as well as the surprise November 93 snow (6 inches), along with 95/6 and 96/7, the last midwinter easterly and the last time icicles were seen here. Let's not forget, either, that December 95 equalled the all-time UK record low.


IF you rely on easterlies to get decent snow, as I do, everything post January 1997 (with the possible exception of the slushy late Feb 2005) was utter rubbish in comparison.



Whilst I don't disagree with what you have said in my experience winter 2009/10 in the Chilterns was as good as anything in York (where I lived) during the 1970s and 80s. Although I'm only about 70 miles away from where your patch it seems as though the winters have been significantly different to the south east of London. 


Brian Gaze
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 September 2017 09:17:40

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Whilst I don't disagree with what you have said in my experience winter 2009/10 in the Chilterns was as good as anything in York (where I lived) during the 1970s and 80s. Although I'm only about 70 miles away from where your patch it seems as though the winters have been significantly different to the south east of London. 



I sympathise with Retron. We moved to Chichester from Kent in 2002 and since then the only really deep powder snow with brilliant blue skies was Dec 2010 - and it lasted 3 days before melting. In the years before that, there was usually some snow somewhere nearby, though you often had to go up on the Downs to find any depth or persistence. Since 2010, virtually nothing.


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Chichester 12m asl
Solar Cycles
26 September 2017 09:33:48

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


Has anyone studied how much impact the 2009 Sarychev eruption had on the following seasons? Winter 2009-10 was the coldest for 31 years at least for the CET, the northerly blocking during 2010 was strong. The volcanic sunsets it produced were stunning.


Im not sure if its the locale of volcanic eruptions that  plays a part Kev?

Gavin P
26 September 2017 10:21:03

Wasn't there 2-3 high latitude eruptions during 2009/2010?


I remember B'astardi (when he was still at Accuweather) saying these eruptions did have an affect on the blocking/cold weather that occurred during 2009/2010 but I wasn't convinced really - Remember Winter 08/09 started the run of colder winters, before any high latitude eruptions and arguably the pattern really started to shift in to a long term blocked set-up during the Summer of 2007,


It may have played a part but I suspect the protracted solar minimum was probably a more important factor.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
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picturesareme
26 September 2017 10:30:41

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Wasn't there 2-3 high latitude eruptions during 2009/2010?


I remember B'astardi (when he was still at Accuweather) saying these eruptions did have an affect on the blocking/cold weather that occurred during 2009/2010 but I wasn't convinced really - Remember Winter 08/09 started the run of colder winters, before any high latitude eruptions and arguably the pattern really started to shift in to a long term blocked set-up during the Summer of 2007,


It may have played a part but I suspect the protracted solar minimum was probably a more important factor.



Summer of 2008 saw a massive eruption of one of the Alaskan islands. 

Gavin P
26 September 2017 10:58:17

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


Summer of 2008 saw a massive eruption of one of the Alaskan islands. 



Oh right I wasn't aware of that.


Were there any high latitude eruptions before Summer 2007? Because that's where I always see the pattern shift to blocking starting (albeit Winter 07/08 still managed to stay mild - Probably due to La Nina more than anything else)


Rural West Northants 120m asl
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Tim A
26 September 2017 11:02:20
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2010/noaa/NOAA_1_2010120118_1.png . That chart is amazing. with a foot widely in Yorkshire.  The NE Midlands was buried with up to a metre.  Intense snowfall from the east. The second half of December, whilst cold was more boring here with only a small amount of snow.
The amount of snowfall that fell in early 2013 was amazing. Without checking my records, I think I recorded about 80cm. I was skiing on Good Friday near Halifax.

Since then its been marginal and wet snowfalls only with very little on low ground. 2013/14 was the first snowless winter I have recorded.



Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl


Gavin P
26 September 2017 11:10:08

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2010/noaa/NOAA_1_2010120118_1.png . That chart is amazing. with a foot widely in Yorkshire.  The NE Midlands was buried with up to a metre.  Intense snowfall from the east. The second half of December, whilst cold was more boring here with only a small amount of snow.
The amount of snowfall that fell in early 2013 was amazing. Without checking my records, I think I recorded about 80cm. I was skiing on Good Friday near Halifax.

Since then its been marginal and wet snowfalls only with very little on low ground. 2013/14 was the first snowless winter I have recorded.




I think your right.


2008/2009 to 2012/2013 was an extraordinary run of cold/snowy winters for the majority of the UK (with a respite for 2011/2012) albeit a few places got unlucky and didn't have any severe snow/cold - Still given the relentless warm winters before and what's happened since 2013/2014 I think most people should feel very lucky to have experienced such a run of winters.


Who knows if we'll ever see a run like this again in our lifetimes...


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
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