Watching this one with interest; again, the prognostics are not handled well by the models so we need to keep an open mind as things evolve.

Addition: just noticed a rogue arm of the jet lying from Sicily to southern Greece. Now, if this was the Atlantic, lows would intensify just N of the jet. What influence is there on medicanes in relation to jet activity?

You want the Medicane to be in the slack region north of the jet fragment, a jet running over it would very quickly destroy it.

Anyway the 18Z is rolling out. The WRF seems to have upgraded it whilst the ARPEGE has downgraded it. With this sort of thing we should still expect very high uncertainty even 24 hours before.  

Massive downgrade on the 0Z, almost no model spins it up at all.

This isn't unexpected, the models handle these things so poorly. It won't really affect the development probability which I still reckon is around 40% unless we get some consistency in the runs that it no longer wants to develop the medicane.

This is the region to watch on the satellites.

I'm not expecting to see any kind of spin up until tomorrow but we may get some convection going tonight. 

No sign of any medicane or even organised convection. However the models still imply the entire region is conductive to genesis. For example the HIRLAM shows twin medicanes forming later today. Obviously we won't see that, but this is just to illustrate that medicane development may occur at any time over the next day or so.

We finally have some organised convection to the west of Sardinia. 

Again models suggest this may develop into a tropical system. The mountainous terrain of Sardinia is going to be an issue though, obviously that will kill off any spin up. However, on the other hand, air forced over the mountains could cause lee cyclogenesis. A lee cyclone forming in the Ionian could then go onto develop into a Medicane. 

WRF 0.1 showing on the 18Z a medicane to the east of Sardinia created from the lee low. 

HIRLAM once again showing rapid intensification.  Medicane projected to hit Scicily. 

Things seem to be kicking off. I'd say this is now a tropical depression equivalent. Convection becoming increasingly well organised.

MODIS image of the system.

Since this is probably going to become a major feature. I'd like some suggestions about what we should name it. Keep in mind the Name Trixie used last year was decided in this thread and went on to be used by official organisations including DWD. 

HIRLAM showing potential catogary 1 status storm landfalling in south Italy.

Latest visible satellite image. Lots of deep convection near the centre. Any name suggestions for it?

Intensification continues. Looking quite tropical storm like.

Good spot Q'!

I guess we see what a night does to it?

If it is kicking off then  could it carry on building/forming overnight or will the lack of solar hammer it back?

Good spot Q'!

I guess we see what a night does to it?

If it is kicking off then  could it carry on building/forming overnight or will the lack of solar hammer it back?

 

 

 

Lack of solar input shouldn't be an issue, its fuelled by surface heat fluxes much like a conventional cyclone. I'd expect the intensification to continue.

Medicane Marlo?

OK we'll go with Marlo

WRF really beefing the storm up once it enters the Ionian. Note the eyewall structure.

However the land interaction should first cause some weakening of Marlo.

Marlo degenerated into a trough on interaction with Italy. However now there is a potential for a 2nd round in the much warmer Ionian sea. Marlo is projected to become a strong, compact storm by Thursday (see bottom right)

In case anyone is wondering what happened to the Medicane. The answer is, despite good model consistency 24 hours before the event, it didn't form in the Ionian. We did get something like a Medicane before the land interaction but it was a fairly weak affair.

Model watchers take note, you might think watching for snow is bad. But watching for medicanes is so much worse, you can get total agreement 24 hours before the event and it still fails to materialize! 

Although none of the models are projecting a Medicane developing I nonetheless think conditions merit the possibility. I'd like to draw attention to the 500hpa and 850hpa temperatures in the south Ionian. 

Note the region of cold 500hpa temperatures corresponds quite well with warm 850hpa temperatures. A strong vertical gradient and low wind shear both of which are present result in good conditions for a spin up.         

Despite this I would not be bringing this up (due to the models lack of interest in forming a medicane) except there is already very strong convection in that region. 

This is not considered to be a tropical like disturbance yet as the convection has limited rotation. However given the environmental conditions, there is a chance this could spin up into a medicane.