Wouldn't it be great if they were right for once...more chance of me going out with Carol Kirkwood though I reckon...

Ben Nevis gets automatic weather station
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41918646 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Nov 2017 to Tuesday 28 Nov 2017:

After a cold start for some, it will turn milder on Sunday with outbreaks of rain spreading across most areas, this perhaps turning to snow across parts of Scotland, where it probably stays colder. This will clear, allowing colder air to spread to all areas again on Monday, with a mixture of sunshine and showers. These could turn wintry in the northeast and it will become windy with gales developing in the north. The rest of this week will remain changeable with further spells of wet, windy and generally milder weather, although there remains the risk of snow in the north. This will be interspersed with drier, brighter and colder spells, although there could be frost and fog overnight and in the mornings. Overall, temperatures will be colder than normal.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 13 Dec 2017:

Towards the end of November and into early December, weather patterns may be rather slow to evolve, with a greater chance of drier, brighter and colder weather becoming established, particularly at first. This would lead to temperatures being below normal with more widespread frost and fog. However, there remains the chance that there will be some milder interludes, especially later on, bringing some wet and windy weather, with the risk of some snow across northern parts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Nov 2017 to Tuesday 28 Nov 2017:

After a cold start for some, it will turn milder on Sunday with outbreaks of rain spreading across most areas, this perhaps turning to snow across parts of Scotland, where it probably stays colder. This will clear, allowing colder air to spread to all areas again on Monday, with a mixture of sunshine and showers. These could turn wintry in the northeast and it will become windy with gales developing in the north. The rest of this week will remain changeable with further spells of wet, windy and generally milder weather, although there remains the risk of snow in the north. This will be interspersed with drier, brighter and colder spells, although there could be frost and fog overnight and in the mornings. Overall, temperatures will be colder than normal.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 13 Dec 2017:

Towards the end of November and into early December, weather patterns may be rather slow to evolve, with a greater chance of drier, brighter and colder weather becoming established, particularly at first. This would lead to temperatures being below normal with more widespread frost and fog. However, there remains the chance that there will be some milder interludes, especially later on, bringing some wet and windy weather, with the risk of some snow across northern parts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

 Slight chnage in wording but the main emphasis remains one of colder than average  temps but with low confidence.

I’d say that is quite a big change there with much less emphasis on colder options.
An indication that the professionals will adapt as the NWP evolves - whatever the direction that evolution takes.
It’s early days - and not even winter yet lol.

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A big step away from a cold blocked outlook from the Met Office.  In small steps they could take us to a mild and wild one for December, time will tell.

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Looks like a bit of a north south split on that outlook?

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A big step away from a cold blocked outlook from the Met Office.  In small steps they could take us to a mild and wild one for December, time will tell.

As we know from many previous years, they always seem to (strangely)be behind what us "enthusiastic amateurs" see and interpret from our own lesser data and models and that will always baffle me!

 

so many times in recent years the BBC LRF will show cold artic weather, which actually changed on the models that we all witnessed 24 hrs earlier....strange and of course lowers there standing with the public even more  

 

 

 

Looks like a bit of a north south split on that outlook?

That's what I thought as well. It doesn't look to be an overly mild outlook according to that, at least as far as northern areas are concerned.

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As we know from many previous years, they always seem to (strangely)be behind what us "enthusiastic amateurs" see and interpret from our own lesser data and models and that will always baffle me!

 

so many times in recent years the BBC LRF will show cold artic weather, which actually changed on the models that we all witnessed 24 hrs earlier....strange and of course lowers there standing with the public even more  

 

In their defence the numerical products have to be analysed and discussed before drafting the text of the daily extended forecast (I assume you’re referring to the UKMO outlook not the BBC one which is issued weekly). 

In this respect it is considered and carefully worded unlike a lot of the knee-jerk reactionist offerings you sometimes see on here from the ‘enthusiastic amateurs’. I can see your point but in my opinion your criticism is a little unfair.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 29 Nov 2017:

Spells of unsettled weather should affect the UK through the first few days of the period, interspersed with brighter, sunnier interludes. Rain may fall as snow, at times, especially over the highland areas of the north of the UK, and it is likely to turn breezy with a risk of gales in the far north or northwest. Through the latter half of the week, the south of the UK should see a spell of cloudy weather, average temperatures, and some bouts of rain. The northern half of the UK should be drier, brighter, but colder with some frosty or foggy mornings. Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below towards the end of November with a predominance of dry but cold weather for many.

UK Outlook for Thursday 30 Nov 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Slow moving patterns are most probably through this outlook period. These will give correspondingly slow changes to the UK's weather regimes through the end of November and the first half of December. There is a moderate chance for drier conditions to dominate many parts of the UK during this period with temperatures probably starting off near or below normal. However, these drier, colder periods are likely to be punctuated by milder interludes, especially later on in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 29 Nov 2017:

Spells of unsettled weather should affect the UK through the first few days of the period, interspersed with brighter, sunnier interludes. Rain may fall as snow, at times, especially over the highland areas of the north of the UK, and it is likely to turn breezy with a risk of gales in the far north or northwest. Through the latter half of the week, the south of the UK should see a spell of cloudy weather, average temperatures, and some bouts of rain. The northern half of the UK should be drier, brighter, but colder with some frosty or foggy mornings. Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below towards the end of November with a predominance of dry but cold weather for many.

UK Outlook for Thursday 30 Nov 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Slow moving patterns are most probably through this outlook period. These will give correspondingly slow changes to the UK's weather regimes through the end of November and the first half of December. There is a moderate chance for drier conditions to dominate many parts of the UK during this period with temperatures probably starting off near or below normal. However, these drier, colder periods are likely to be punctuated by milder interludes, especially later on in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

 Another downgrade for cold though it’s no surprise considering the output. Just goes to show you should never look beyond +144hrs. 😁

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 29 Nov 2017:

Spells of unsettled weather should affect the UK through the first few days of the period, interspersed with brighter, sunnier interludes. Rain may fall as snow, at times, especially over the highland areas of the north of the UK, and it is likely to turn breezy with a risk of gales in the far north or northwest. Through the latter half of the week, the south of the UK should see a spell of cloudy weather, average temperatures, and some bouts of rain. The northern half of the UK should be drier, brighter, but colder with some frosty or foggy mornings. Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below towards the end of November with a predominance of dry but cold weather for many.

UK Outlook for Thursday 30 Nov 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Slow moving patterns are most probably through this outlook period. These will give correspondingly slow changes to the UK's weather regimes through the end of November and the first half of December. There is a moderate chance for drier conditions to dominate many parts of the UK during this period with temperatures probably starting off near or below normal. However, these drier, colder periods are likely to be punctuated by milder interludes, especially later on in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

 

That's a pretty big climb down looks like the first battle is lost.

 

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I don't understand this:

Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below towards the end of November with a predominance of dry but cold weather for many.

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I don't understand this:

Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below towards the end of November with a predominance of dry but cold weather for many.

😂😂😂😂 

I don't understand this:

Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below towards the end of November with a predominance of dry but cold weather for many.

 

Milder interludes too ! Winter tyres going on today so snow is now allowed !

 

 

Milder interludes too ! Winter tyres going on today so snow is now allowed !

Is that your official winter forecast Tom. 😁

Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Nov 2017 to Thursday 30 Nov 2017:

To start it will often be cloudy with some outbreaks of heavy rain at times, possibly falling as snow over the hills of Scotland. It will remain rather breezy, with the risk of gales towards the north and west. Through the latter half of next week, the south of the UK should see spells of cloudy and wet weather, with temperatures generally around or above average. Meanwhile the north is likely to be drier, brighter, but colder with some frosty mornings. Towards the end of November confidence is low, but rather mixed conditions of cloud and rain (with snow in northern parts) is likely, interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below.

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Dec 2017 to Friday 15 Dec 2017:

Through this period the weather may remain largely "blocked", meaning Atlantic weather systems and winter storms are less likely to affect the UK. Changes in weather type will be slower, perhaps with a high chance of seeing drier than average weather, although confidence is low at this stage. Temperatures are likely to remain near or below average for most of this period. Although, there are signals for milder interludes to occur later in the period as weather systems begin to make inroads.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14%3C/div%3E%3C/div%3E 

I think anything beyond 7 days is a waste of space to be honest. These MetO updates are no better than punts made by forum members here and just as likely to be as wrong. 😁

I think anything beyond 7 days is a waste of space to be honest. These MetO updates are no better than punts made by forum members here and just as likely to be as wrong. 😁

And all the members ‘punting’ on here are professional meteorologists are they?

Apart from a select few individuals who have a lot of experience and common sense I know whose forecasts I take notice of - and they aren’t ‘punts’ as you put it.

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