I went with the model consensus as of 31st Nov for the high to keep the milder air at bay until at least Friday, which coupled with the second-half cold signals led to a prediction of a month 2*C below the LTA.
GFS to 14th has it almost 2*C above
It's still at 6.2*C or there abouts as of 19th (would be higher but it had unrealistically high temps under the mid-lat block later on) and even if I simulate a notable cold spell for the rest of the month with a mean of just 0.5*C, the final CET is no lower than 4*C.
So according to GFS my prediction is totally screwed already and I almost wonder why on Earth I bothered and what use is science in the face of model haplessness.
I say almost because I'm not quite convinced about the mid-month period taking so long to chill out... but even then it's going to take some serious cold weather in the final 10 days to put things right and I'm not sure the cannons are loaded for that kind of show.
In truth though I'd up my punt by 1*C if was able to bend the rules like that. Oh well, it's not like I was in contention anyway
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