Jeez, you went THAT low??? What were you thinking?????

Met Office Hadley         4.2c.        Anomaly        -1.0c.   Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                      5.18c.      Anomaly         0.19c.

Netweather                   4.7c.        Anomaly        -0.41c.

Peasedown St John       5.7c.     Anomaly       -2.0c.

But miracles can happen

Well it's the right time of year for them!

I went with the model consensus as of 31st Nov for the high to keep the milder air at bay until at least Friday, which coupled with the second-half cold signals led to a prediction of a month 2*C below the LTA.

GFS to 14th has it almost 2*C above 

It's still at 6.2*C or there abouts as of 19th (would be higher but it had unrealistically high temps under the mid-lat block later on) and even if I simulate a notable cold spell for the rest of the month with a mean of just 0.5*C, the final CET is no lower than 4*C.

So according to GFS my prediction is totally screwed already and I almost wonder why on Earth I bothered and what use is science in the face of model haplessness.

I say almost because I'm not quite convinced about the mid-month period taking so long to chill out... but even then it's going to take some serious cold weather in the final 10 days to put things right and I'm not sure the cannons are loaded for that kind of show.

In truth though  I'd up my punt by 1*C if was able to bend the rules like that. Oh well, it's not like I was in contention anyway 

My view is it's best not to trust ANY model beyond 10 days at the mostest.  Beyond 10 days, always trust your gut, over a model.

Met Office Hadley          4.6c.         Anomaly    -0.6c.   Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                       4.73c.       Anomaly     -0.27c.

Netweather                    4.92c.       Anomaly     -0.19c.

Peasedown St John      5.2c.        Anomaly     -2.36c. 

My view is it's best not to trust ANY model beyond 10 days at the mostest.  Beyond 10 days, always trust your gut, over a model.

My prediction is up the shoot until after the 14th.....

Met Office Hadley         4.2c.        Anomaly         -1.2c.      Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                      4.07c.      Anomaly          -0.9c.

Netweather                   4.64c.      Anomaly          -047c.

Peasedown St John     4.4c.       Anomaly         -2.98c.   

I went with the model consensus as of 31st Nov for the high to keep the milder air at bay until at least Friday, which coupled with the second-half cold signals led to a prediction of a month 2*C below the LTA.

GFS to 14th has it almost 2*C above 

It's still at 6.2*C or there abouts as of 19th (would be higher but it had unrealistically high temps under the mid-lat block later on) and even if I simulate a notable cold spell for the rest of the month with a mean of just 0.5*C, the final CET is no lower than 4*C.

So according to GFS my prediction is totally screwed already and I almost wonder why on Earth I bothered and what use is science in the face of model haplessness.

I say almost because I'm not quite convinced about the mid-month period taking so long to chill out... but even then it's going to take some serious cold weather in the final 10 days to put things right and I'm not sure the cannons are loaded for that kind of show.

In truth though  I'd up my punt by 1*C if was able to bend the rules like that. Oh well, it's not like I was in contention anyway 

Great post that one is. :-)

Apologies but due to the time of year I am very busy at work currently and so do not have time to update this thread or the November thread at present. There will therefore be a significant delay. Can't say at the moment when I will be able to update. Probably this weekend at the earliest. Sorry.

My view is it's best not to trust ANY model beyond 10 days at the most.  Beyond 10 days, always trust your gut, over a model.

Oh I do - the critical shift in events determining the ridge placement happened at around 6 or 7 days range.

Still hopeful for a mid-month anticyclonic cold spell, with the GFS 00z showing support and ECM not far off either.

GFS 00z raw numbers bring the CET down into the upper 3s by 22nd which is impressive given that it's way up at 6.3 or so to 11th. Relies on getting a continental low-level feed followed by the high pressure drifting right overhead to allow some cold nights. Given typical modelling shortfalls when it comes to just how low temps go under such circumstances the CET estimate from the raw numbers is probably a bit high.

I'm a long way from settling down on that idea fully though; last nights 12z op runs were shockingly far from the mid-lat blocking theme and the ECM 00z is still a close call on continental over maritime feed 14th-15th - though yes the continental wins by 16th.

Hopefully GEFS will turn out to have been leading the way yesterday as they were a lot more keen on a strong block that's not only in our vicinity but at a higher latitude than we saw last week so with better scope for importing cold air from the east or northeast later in time.

Met Office Hadley           3.8c.        Anomaly       -1.5c.  Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                        3.68c.      Anomaly       -1.32c.

Netweather                     4.13c.      Anomaly       -0.98c.

Peasedown  St John      4.2c.       Anomaly    -3.18c. 

I went with the model consensus as of 31st Nov for the high to keep the milder air at bay until at least Friday, which coupled with the second-half cold signals led to a prediction of a month 2*C below the LTA.

GFS to 14th has it almost 2*C above 

It's still at 6.2*C or there abouts as of 19th (would be higher but it had unrealistically high temps under the mid-lat block later on) and even if I simulate a notable cold spell for the rest of the month with a mean of just 0.5*C, the final CET is no lower than 4*C.

So according to GFS my prediction is totally screwed already and I almost wonder why on Earth I bothered and what use is science in the face of model haplessness.

I say almost because I'm not quite convinced about the mid-month period taking so long to chill out... but even then it's going to take some serious cold weather in the final 10 days to put things right and I'm not sure the cannons are loaded for that kind of show.

In truth though  I'd up my punt by 1*C if was able to bend the rules like that. Oh well, it's not like I was in contention anyway 

Now that's what I call FI

Met Office Hadley           3.8c.        Anomaly       -1.5c.  Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                        3.68c.      Anomaly       -1.32c.

Netweather                     4.13c.      Anomaly       -0.98c.

 

Peasedown  St John      4.2c.       Anomaly    -3.18c. 

Met office Hadley            4.0c.       Anomaly       -1.2c.    Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         4.28c     Anomaly       -0.71c.

Netweather                      4.49c.    Anomaly       -0.62c.

Peasedown St john         4.8c.     Anomaly         -2.58c.  

Met Office Hadley          4.8c.        Anomaly     -0.3c.

Metcheck                       5.28c.      Anomaly      0.28c.

Netweather                    5.46c.      Anomaly      0.37c.

Peasedown St John      5..7c.      Anomaly       -1.68c.  

I'm not looking forward to GWs list of predictions given mine must be going to be waaayyy out. Given my views about that 'atmospheric 'you know what' effect that cannot be named' I should have had more sense

A change of 0.8c in one day of the CET  after the first week of a month is unusual.  Shows how mild it is at the moment compared to what preceded it!

My guess was 4.0

Forecasts at the time were for a cold first week and a mild second week...

As usual, beyond 14 days anything can happen! 

My guess was for it to stay fairly mild to close to Christmas, but then a serious cold spell Christmas to New Year aka 1995.

Now I'm thinking I'm 2 degrees too low, a week ago I thought I should be 1 or even 2 degrees lower...such are the vagaries of the British weather...we love it really