I think you'll be nearer the mark than me although I've nothing to lose.  Good luck! 

6.1c it was

Hmmm....

Way too early to be worrying about whether you have gone too high or low. What we can say is the first part of November is going to be in the very cold category.

My current estimates suggest a CET of just 5.38C by the 8th. This would be the coldest first 8 days of November since 1988 and the 11th coldest first 8 days since 1900. The CET at that stage will be nearly 3.5C below the 1981-2010 mean so very significant indeed.

After that the models want to warm things up significantly but I take that with a large pinch of salt. Yes things will probably get less cold but the ENS are all over the place at the moment so the warm up to the high 6's by mid month shown in the charts below is by no means a likelihood at this stage. Even if it does get that high we will still have nearly half the month to go and temperatures generally drop off a lot during November. Some forecasts are suggesting things could get quite cold again towards the end of the month but that is speculation at this point.

So at this stage I am quite happy with my prediction of 6.2C. I was very tempted to go much lower with something around 5.5C but I held off because the models were showing a much warmer period around mid month.

Met Office Hadley            7.2c.          Anomaly        -0.8c.     Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                         6.53c.        Anomaly        -0.39c.

Netweather                      7.18c.        Anomaly         0.29c.

Peasedown St John       7.6c.         Anomaly         -0.5c.

 

 

6.1c it was

Hmmm....

The way this month is looking - I'll be way out.

Here is the list of predictions for November.

Thank you GW for the charts.. Just have to watch and wait.. Good to have the interest.. 

Met Office Hadley           6.9c.          Anomaly         -1.0c.    Provisional to 5th.

Met Office                       6.10c.        Anomaly         -0.82c.

Netweather                     6.8c.          Anomaly         -0.11c.

Peasedown St John     7.0c.          Anomaly          -1.2c.    

I'm thinking we're almost a week into November, it's already low and I'd expect it to get colder towards month end.  Maybe my guess wasn't so bad. Only maybe. 

I think anyone in at least the top third of the CET table has a chance in this year's competition. 

The overall table is tighter than a free-climber's grip!

Here is the list of predictions for November.

Oh gawd, I'm toward one of the ends again.

My punt in October knocked me out of any sort of contention; after this month I could be fighting a relegation battle!

I've well and truly had it. But anyway - its all god fun and interesting. :-)

Forget what I said yesterday!  My 6.8 guess is already higher than the actual CET and I don't think even mild week can help me. The month is likely to just get colder. 

Forget what I said yesterday!  My 6.8 guess is already higher than the actual CET and I don't think even mild week can help me. The month is likely to just get colder. 

With what we've had the last few years I'm not so sure Caz ...But like you I fear for my prediction already, however if it's cold and crisp I won't complain 

Once that Atlantic huffs and puffs by the weekend it might take a little longer to shift than expected, hopefully a very very very cold 1st December instead 

No update from Hadley yet.

Metcheck        5.47c.   Anomaly   -1.46c.

Netweather     6.17c.   Anomaly   -0.74c. 

Peasedown St John    6.1c. Anomaly  -2.2c.

 Oh gawd, I'm toward one of the ends again.

My punt in October knocked me out of any sort of contention; after this month I could be fighting a relegation battle!