We are nearly at the end of another year and getting close to winter. Generally 2016 has been a fairly mild year so far. Will there be a sting in the tail?
As ever predictions for the final two months of the year are to be made by private message to me please rather than posted in this thread. This ensures we get genuine predictions not tactical predictions as the annual competition reaches its climax.
Predictions for November can be made until 23:59 on 1 November with no penalty.
Historic summary for November
1971-2000 6.9C
1981-2010 7.1C
1996-2015 7.5C
The last two Novembers have been very mild with 9.5C last year - not far off the all time record although still not as warm as December was. 2013 was much colder at 6.2C. The coldest recent November was 2010 at 5.2C.
Chart of November CET with rolling 10 year mean since 1961
Latest model output
850 temperatures looking fairly cool for the first part of the month
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
This morning's ECM run for De Bilt shows the op run going very cold right at the end of the run. The control run continues this cold theme deeper into FI. Mean temperatures in fact are close to zero by the end of the run. However, the control run is a big outlier. The majority of ensemble members show mean temperatures around 6-7C.
https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim
My CET estimate for the first 13 days of the month suggests a CET of around 7C by the 12th which is more than 1C below average.
Met Office contingency planners overview
Not yet issued. Should be published tomorrow. Will update when available.
Analogues
Looking at years with a warm September (>15C) and a fairly average October there is a mix of results. The majority of years have a cold November but there are some very warm ones as well. Difficult to draw much of a conclusion but 1961 is by far the best match since 1950 which saw a below average November. This year November will start chilly.
September October November ENSO
1999 15.6C 10.7C 7.9C Strong La Nina
1961 15.2C 10.9C 6.0C Neutral (slightly negative)
1958 15.1C 10.8C 6.4C Weak El Nino
1949 16.3C 11.7C 6.6C Strong La Nina
1898 15.2C 11.3C 7.2C
1825 15.1C 10.8C 5.2C
1795 16.0C 11.7C 4.5C
1779 15.2C 10.9C 5.7C
1730 15.3C 10.9C 9.2C
1729 16.6C 10.1C 8.1C
2016 16.0C 10.8C ???? Neutral (slightly negative)
Points to note are that 1999 saw a very strong La Nina which is not generally conducive to cold winter conditions in the UK. Very different setup to this year. As was 1949.
The closest match to this year is 1961. That saw a neutral ENSO with a slight negative tendency. Also saw sun spot numbers similar to what we have this year as we moved towards a solar minimum. I will be watching 1961 very closely in the coming weeks as I think it is a good benchmark for this year. December 1961 was very cold (2.2C) followed by an average January and February and then a very cold March (2.8C).
Edited by moderator
25 December 2016 12:01:13
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