I suspect this topic may get a fair bit of use over the next few days.

The highest risk areas for intense storms are, SW England, Wales, The Midlands, Northern England and parts of Scotland for late Tuesday and into Wednesday at the moment.

Open to change as always.

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Seems to be west is best at the moment with SW, Wales, Irish Sea - and heading north into northern England and Scotland

Open to change and nothing is certain till closer to the time

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ECM 12z has the thundery low further south than the GFS for Wednesday.

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Watches out from the Met;

Severe thunderstorms for large areas of Central England, Wales and Scotland

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1468882800

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Estofex have a level 1 issued for tomorrow. Surface dew points of up to 24 C in a few places and Lifted Index at up to -10, according to GFS 

http://www.estofex.org/

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Carol Kirkwood on Radio 2 going for 'Severe lightning' in tonights t/storms. Unfortunately NIMBY

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Carol Kirkwood on Radio 2 going for 'Severe lightning' in tonights t/storms. Unfortunately NIMBY

Rest easy. She just said "Humdingers" on BBC Breakfast, so no-one's getting a look in.

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Rest easy. She just said "Humdingers" on BBC Breakfast, so no-one's getting a look in.

😎

You actually look quite well placed Ben but it could be a late night show.

Edit: latest suggests an increased risk for Yorkshire Weds evening as the plume lingers 

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😎

You actually look quite well placed Ben but it could be a late night show.

Edit: latest suggests an increased risk for Yorkshire Weds evening as the plume lingers 

Hi Neil - risk overnight mainly west of here I think - NW Eng, Cumbria and points north.

We may get some tail end stuff first thing Wed morning. Main risk here looks like being Wed PM and into evening as warmer air hangs on as you say with maxes now looking like 29c.

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Warnings have been updated by MetO, though it's really just a tweak on coverage and timings.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/ 

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Warnings have been updated by MetO, though it's really just a tweak on coverage and timings.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

Still covering Wales, Central and Northern areas of the UK.

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From the GFS 06z, a good example of CAPE/LI eye candy that can be misleading:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME06_12_11.png

Stacks of potential, but inhibition will bring it all to nought for many at that time! Overnight though is a different story for Wales, NW England into Scotland as those capping factors reduce.

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From the GFS 06z, a good example of CAPE/LI eye candy that can be misleading:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME06_12_11.png

Stacks of potential, but inhibition will bring it all to nought for many at that time! Overnight though is a different story for Wales, NW England into Scotland as those capping factors reduce.

Spot on 

Still lots of energy to tap into later this evening though as heights weaken  I'm hoping, as a direct hit won't happen here today, that there will be some nice nighttime lightning over the Pennines. 

Tomorrow looks rather messy and complex!

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Satellite shows band of precip about to hit northern tip of france.  Will be into SW England by about 5pm i reckon.

 

Fingers crossed for some fireworks.

 

 

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http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?charttype=precipratec&model=arpege&region=uk&charthour=40 

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Heat and humidity builds, but the 'light show' arrives tonight. Here's some more comprehensive details...

 

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

Interesting update from Matt.

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With regard to the model runs showing rainfall, also be aware that some of the storms may well be quite high-based - therefore often not a huge rainfall footprint, but a good show of lightning.

Here's the GFS 12z CAPE/LI for tomorrow lunchtime:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME12_24_11.png

Looks amazing once again - but remember that inhibition! Most places Midlands SE-ward are likely not to see much in the way of storms.

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Still 30C currently and there is a bank of altocumulus castellanus passing overhead now. Signs that the atmosphere is becoming less stable around here.

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Still 30C currently and there is a bank of altocumulus castellanus passing overhead now. Signs that the atmosphere is becoming less stable around here.

Same here Bolty. Hope you catch a flasher tonight so I can pop to the Peaks and view it from afar 

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Yes that cloud field that's expanded from mid-Wales NE'wd into NW Eng, N. Mids, Yorks may hold some interest - worth watching.

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