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Offline Charmhills  
#1 Posted : 17 July 2016 09:00:01(UTC)
Charmhills

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Location: Loughborough

I suspect this topic may get a fair bit of use over the next few days.

The highest risk areas for intense storms are, SW England, Wales, The Midlands, Northern England and parts of Scotland for late Tuesday and into Wednesday at the moment.

Open to change as always.

Duane.

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Offline sriram  
#2 Posted : 17 July 2016 13:36:24(UTC)
sriram

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Location: Sedgley West Midlands

Seems to be west is best at the moment with SW, Wales, Irish Sea - and heading north into northern England and Scotland

Open to change and nothing is certain till closer to the time

Sriram

Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )

162m ASL

Offline Charmhills  
#3 Posted : 17 July 2016 19:38:06(UTC)
Charmhills

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Location: Loughborough

ECM 12z has the thundery low further south than the GFS for Wednesday.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Duane.

Offline Charmhills  
#4 Posted : 18 July 2016 09:59:51(UTC)
Charmhills

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Watches out from the Met;

Severe thunderstorms for large areas of Central England, Wales and Scotland

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1468882800

Duane.

Offline P+ve Giant  
#5 Posted : 18 July 2016 22:24:38(UTC)
P+ve Giant

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Location: Congleton, East Cheshire. 340ft ASL

Estofex have a level 1 issued for tomorrow. Surface dew points of up to 24 C in a few places and Lifted Index at up to -10, according to GFS 

http://www.estofex.org/

John.
Offline DeeDee  
#6 Posted : 19 July 2016 06:42:41(UTC)
DeeDee

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Location: Harpenden, Herts

Carol Kirkwood on Radio 2 going for 'Severe lightning' in tonights t/storms. Unfortunately NIMBY
Harpenden, Herts.
Offline Arcus  
#7 Posted : 19 July 2016 06:46:58(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DeeDee Go to Quoted Post
Carol Kirkwood on Radio 2 going for 'Severe lightning' in tonights t/storms. Unfortunately NIMBY

Rest easy. She just said "Humdingers" on BBC Breakfast, so no-one's getting a look in.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

Offline nsrobins  
#8 Posted : 19 July 2016 07:05:28(UTC)
nsrobins

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Originally Posted by: Arcus Go to Quoted Post

 

Rest easy. She just said "Humdingers" on BBC Breakfast, so no-one's getting a look in.

😎

You actually look quite well placed Ben but it could be a late night show.

Edit: latest suggests an increased risk for Yorkshire Weds evening as the plume lingers 

Edited by user 19 July 2016 07:09:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline Arcus  
#9 Posted : 19 July 2016 07:18:36(UTC)
Arcus

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Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

 

😎

You actually look quite well placed Ben but it could be a late night show.

Edit: latest suggests an increased risk for Yorkshire Weds evening as the plume lingers 

Hi Neil - risk overnight mainly west of here I think - NW Eng, Cumbria and points north.

We may get some tail end stuff first thing Wed morning. Main risk here looks like being Wed PM and into evening as warmer air hangs on as you say with maxes now looking like 29c.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

Offline Arcus  
#10 Posted : 19 July 2016 09:49:58(UTC)
Arcus

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Location: North Yorkshire

Warnings have been updated by MetO, though it's really just a tweak on coverage and timings.

http://www.metoffice.gov...public/weather/warnings/

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

Offline Charmhills  
#11 Posted : 19 July 2016 09:53:57(UTC)
Charmhills

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Location: Loughborough

Originally Posted by: Arcus Go to Quoted Post
Warnings have been updated by MetO, though it's really just a tweak on coverage and timings.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

Still covering Wales, Central and Northern areas of the UK.

Duane.

Offline Arcus  
#12 Posted : 19 July 2016 10:42:29(UTC)
Arcus

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Location: North Yorkshire

From the GFS 06z, a good example of CAPE/LI eye candy that can be misleading:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME06_12_11.png

Stacks of potential, but inhibition will bring it all to nought for many at that time! Overnight though is a different story for Wales, NW England into Scotland as those capping factors reduce.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

Offline SJV  
#13 Posted : 19 July 2016 10:46:04(UTC)
SJV

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Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL

Originally Posted by: Arcus Go to Quoted Post

From the GFS 06z, a good example of CAPE/LI eye candy that can be misleading:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME06_12_11.png

Stacks of potential, but inhibition will bring it all to nought for many at that time! Overnight though is a different story for Wales, NW England into Scotland as those capping factors reduce.

Spot on 

Still lots of energy to tap into later this evening though as heights weaken  I'm hoping, as a direct hit won't happen here today, that there will be some nice nighttime lightning over the Pennines. 

Tomorrow looks rather messy and complex!

Follow/like Steel City Skies - Sheffield Weather Forecasting on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
Offline Russwirral  
#14 Posted : 19 July 2016 13:38:57(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

Satellite shows band of precip about to hit northern tip of france.  Will be into SW England by about 5pm i reckon.

 

Fingers crossed for some fireworks.

 

 

Offline jamesthemonkeh  
#15 Posted : 19 July 2016 15:47:47(UTC)
jamesthemonkeh

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Location: Reading

Not totally ruled out a thundery downpour in the London area tomorrow afternoon, though the Arpege chart is the only one suggesting so - http://www.theweatherout...gion=uk&charthour=40

Offline Charmhills  
#16 Posted : 19 July 2016 16:38:40(UTC)
Charmhills

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Location: Loughborough

Heat and humidity builds, but the 'light show' arrives tonight. Here's some more comprehensive details...

 

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

Interesting update from Matt.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Duane.

Offline Arcus  
#17 Posted : 19 July 2016 17:36:46(UTC)
Arcus

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Location: North Yorkshire

With regard to the model runs showing rainfall, also be aware that some of the storms may well be quite high-based - therefore often not a huge rainfall footprint, but a good show of lightning.

Here's the GFS 12z CAPE/LI for tomorrow lunchtime:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME12_24_11.png



Looks amazing once again - but remember that inhibition! Most places Midlands SE-ward are likely not to see much in the way of storms.

Edited by user 19 July 2016 17:38:44(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

Online Bolty  
#18 Posted : 19 July 2016 18:40:49(UTC)
Bolty

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Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m

Still 30C currently and there is a bank of altocumulus castellanus passing overhead now. Signs that the atmosphere is becoming less stable around here.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

Offline SJV  
#19 Posted : 19 July 2016 18:42:41(UTC)
SJV

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Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL

Originally Posted by: Bolty Go to Quoted Post
Still 30C currently and there is a bank of altocumulus castellanus passing overhead now. Signs that the atmosphere is becoming less stable around here.

Same here Bolty. Hope you catch a flasher tonight so I can pop to the Peaks and view it from afar 

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Offline Arcus  
#20 Posted : 19 July 2016 18:49:22(UTC)
Arcus

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United Kingdom
Location: North Yorkshire

Yes that cloud field that's expanded from mid-Wales NE'wd into NW Eng, N. Mids, Yorks may hold some interest - worth watching.
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

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