Not sure if this has been discussed but how does this December compare in a standard deviation kind of way to other record months? Or, I think I'm asking, how record is it?

I guess another way of looking at it is that a tm airstream persisted for much of the month. A tm airstream perhaps a degree warmer than we might expect? Or brought to us more directly from the far SW than is usual? We didn't smash maxima much we smashed persistence of airmass?

It's interesting reading other observation as that few other months could do this since we'd expect less cloud, the odd clear night, some cold night, in other months. I guess we might, next EN, see a November the same, one that averaged 11C now seem possible, or October and 14C plus. But, not later winter or spring months I guess.

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I think it would be interesting to see the average highs and lows of these record months and whether excessive cloud influenced produced very mild nights rather than warm days. I'm sure March 2012 had the warmest average high of any March? Or maybe I am mistaken.

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I think it would be interesting to see the average highs and lows of these record months and whether excessive cloud influenced produced very mild nights rather than warm days. I'm sure March 2012 had the warmest average high of any March? Or maybe I am mistaken.

Best way to see the ranked maxima and minima is at these links

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_max_sort.txt

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_min_sort.txt

In terms of maximum temperatures March 2012 equalled March 1957. But there were two warmer years - 1948 and 1938. In fact 1938 was a full degree warmer.

Annual CET competition - December update

Here are the final tables for the 2015 competition.

Congratulations to lanky who is our winner this year . It is only fitting really as he has been at the top of the table for 5 months this year, more than anyone else.

It was very tight though in the end as sussex snow magnet finished just 0.04C behind and Taylor1740 just 0.24C behind.

Our leader last month John S2 dropped to 7th this month. He does have the distinction of being the only person to be in the top 10 in the table in every month during 2015.

A number of people in the top 10 finished at their highest position of the year including Darren S, nouska and redmoons.

Several large climbers throughout the table including Surrey John, moonmin75, cowman and Gavin P all going in the right direction. It is all relative of course as nobody made a close prediction this month but some were closer than others.

Worth noting that if you had predicted the 1981-2010 mean every month throughout the year your error would have been 12.89C. So that puts the final table into perspective.

Thank you to everyone for taking part in another hard fought competition this year. Lets see what 2016 brings. Happy New Year to everyone.

Monthly positions

Monthly prediction errors

Yellow shading indicates an error of 0.25C or less. Orange shading means the person did not make a prediction in that month so an error was automatically calculated in accordance with the competition rules.

 

Final Hadley figure for December is 9.68C

So 1.6C above the previous December record of 8.1C. Needless to say no one in the competition got even close to this figure.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

 

Congratulations, though, on winning the December round.

 

Has there ever been a month before where the winning prediction was out by more than two degrees? 

 

 

Congratulations, though, on winning the December round.

 

Has there ever been a month before where the winning prediction was out by more than two degrees? 

No there hasn't. The closest we came was the incredibly cold March 2013.

Most people were way over 2C out but two people did get closer. Stormchaser managed an error of 1.85C and Charmhills was only 1.2C out.

The gap between September and December's CET mean was less 3.0C, that has got to be a record.

The gap between the two months' minima was even less, it was just 1.1C!

December's CET mean minimum was higher than May's!

 

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The gap between September and December's CET mean was less 3.0C, that has got to be a record.

The gap between the two months' minima was even less, it was just 1.1C!

December's CET mean minimum was higher than May's!

 

Quite an incredible month!

Also comparing Decenber with May the mean temp imby for May was 12.4c, December 12c so last month just 0.4c cooler than may and 0.3c warmer than November. Certainly a month we may never see the likes of again!

Not sure if this has been discussed but how does this December compare in a standard deviation kind of way to other record months? Or, I think I'm asking, how record is it?

I guess another way of looking at it is that a tm airstream persisted for much of the month. A tm airstream perhaps a degree warmer than we might expect? Or brought to us more directly from the far SW than is usual? We didn't smash maxima much we smashed persistence of airmass?

It's interesting reading other observation as that few other months could do this since we'd expect less cloud, the odd clear night, some cold night, in other months. I guess we might, next EN, see a November the same, one that averaged 11C now seem possible, or October and 14C plus. But, not later winter or spring months I guess.

Excellent point there - Glad that has been mentioned. Somebody did put a figure up stating that a December as mild as this one has just been has a probability of 1 in 2,871 years. That would not surprise me at all really.

 

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It's been said many times before Simon, but thanks again for the excellent work and devotion displayed in regard to this competition. It's not only the producing of the results, but also the background information you provide which keeps the interest going. I raise a glass to you, Happy New Year.

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It's been said many times before Simon, but thanks again for the excellent work and devotion displayed in regard to this competition. It's not only the producing of the results, but also the background information you provide which keeps the interest going. I raise a glass to you, Happy New Year.

Hear, hear!

We were all so far out that it meant any of the top 33 in the table at the end of November could have won the annual contest by accurately forecasting (guessing) the December CET

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Many thanks GW for your hard work with this excellent competition .

An amazing month altogether and I'm glad I have other TWOers to share it with.

I'm fairly happy with my 2015 performance, although it was a pity I had a late penalty in February.  Well done to Lanky for coming top of the table and sticking there for so long.  Well done to all who took part and may you all be with us in 2016.

Many thanks GW! 

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An amazing month altogether and I'm glad I have other TWOers to share it with.

I'm fairly happy with my 2015 performance, although it was a pity I had a late penalty in February.  Well done to Lanky for coming top of the table and sticking there for so long.  Well done to all who took part and may you all be with us in 2016.

Many thanks GW! 

Thank you for those kind words and thanks to GW for yet again organising such a brilliant competition this year

I was indeed jammy to win this year by a gnat's whisker especially after my "Devon Lock" impersonation in November

hard luck indeed to Sussex Snow Magnet who was just 0.04C behind after a whole years cogitation

Now it's all systems go for 2016

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It's been said many times before Simon, but thanks again for the excellent work and devotion displayed in regard to this competition. It's not only the producing of the results, but also the background information you provide which keeps the interest going. I raise a glass to you, Happy New Year.

Dougie says it all, I quite agree.thanks GW.

 

Thank you for those kind words and thanks to GW for yet again organising such a brilliant competition this year

I was indeed jammy to win this year by a gnat's whisker especially after my "Devon Lock" impersonation in November

hard luck indeed to Sussex Snow Magnet who was just 0.04C behind after a whole years cogitation

Now it's all systems go for 2016

Well done Lanky deserved win,(hadworked out mid month that it was yours so not to dissapointed by the fine margin) my best effort so far although I'm sure there was a second decimal place in my pm

And as stated many thanks to GW for running such a good comp as well as providing all the informstive stats.

Well done Lanky.

Slightly disappointed with my slide over the last three months, but can't complain with a top ten finish in the end.

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Thanks for all the stats and for running the competition over the past year GW!

Great fun as always.

Congrats to Lanky.

And what to say about December 2015 other than....  

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Thanks everyone for your comments. Looking forward to another interesting year in 2016.

It does take quite a lot of time to manage this competition over the course of a year so apologies that it sometimes takes me a while to publish the end of month reports. It just depends how busy I am at the time and also what day of the week the end of the month falls on. Fortunately the end of the year is always a bit easier as I tend not to be at work.