Today 4 remain on total...     3 Changed.

 

Met Office Hadley                 9.9c.        Anomaly      5.1c.     Provisional to 21st...       Remain

Metcheck                             9.78c.       Anomaly     4.78c.      Change.

Netweather                          10.4c.       Anomaly      5.31c.      Change.

Cheadle Hulme Weather         9.9c.         Anomaly      4.3c.         Remain

Clevedon Weather                  11.7c.       Anomaly       4.8c.        Remain.

Mount Sorrel                          10.0c.        Anomaly       4.9c.        Remain'

Peasedown St John                10.5c.         Anomaly       5.2c.        Change

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We ended up with 4 CET date records in a row, just missing out on a fifth on the 20th.

The CET is still holding up well with a double digit return today. Currently my calculations have the CET at 9.86C.

Over the next 3 days it will be relatively cool in comparison to what we have seen most of this month. Still mild but the CET will drop back about 0.2C.

But from Boxing Day onwards it is now looking very mild again. Further CET date records are possible. Boxing Day itself now looks close to a record. The 27th is looking highly likely to be record breaking and the 30th could also be a record.

Currently I am expecting the CET to finish at 9.82C. We are most unlikely to get back to 10C now due to the cooler conditions expected over the next 3 days but a 9.9C finishing number is not out of the question.

To put this December into context it is worth repeating again that this month will be warmer than every other December, January, February and March on record. It will also be warmer than every November on record apart from November 1994. It will also be warmer than all bar 6 of the last 66 April's (and all bar 21 of the 357 Aprils in the CET series).

The warmest Nov / Dec period on record is 8.25C in 1994. This year we could see 9.65C so breaking the existing record by 1.4C.

3 Decembers above 8.0C and yet not one that is 5.9C!

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Cheadle H W, Clevedon W and Peasedown No Change again in individual stations.   4 to do roughly same time as Hadley comes out. Lunchtime.

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ONLY TWO changes today..... Metcheck   and Netweather........

Met Office Hadley                     9.9c.         Anomaly      5.1c.    Provisional to  22nd.

Metcheck                                 9.76c.       Anomaly      4.77c.

Netweather                             10.48c.      Anomaly      5.39c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather            9.9c.        Anomaly       4.3c.

Clevedon Weather                    11.7c.       Anomaly       4.8c.

Mount   Sorrel                          10.0.c       Anomaly       5.9c.

Peasedown St John                   10.5c.       Anomaly       5.2c.

 

 

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What I find ironic about this is that December has been the least mild of the winter months over the last 25 years. It's funny that January nor February couldn't break their CET records and yet December which hasn't been within 1.0C of its record over the last 25 years is going to smash it.

Also and I mentioned this before, we haven't recorded a December with a CET of 5.9 and here we are looking like a 9.0+C one!

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Exceptionally mild output again this evening post Christmas. Relative to what we have experienced this month Christmas Day will feel quite cool but will actually still be above average. Every single day this month will be above average.

Further CET date records now looking increasingly likely on Boxing Day, 27th and 30th.

The possibility of a 10C finishing CET is now back on. My current estimate of the final December CET has increased to 9.95C. Astonishing.

The UK maximum temperature date record of 16.1C on the 30th is also under threat now with 16C being forecast for the south-east as potential storm Frank drags up very mild air from the south. That would be the 4th UK date record this month and the 8th since the start of November. That must be close to a record for so many maximum temperature date records in such a short period of time. (In fact Kevin's stats on UKWW show 10 UK minimum date records between late November and December in 2010 so actually we are a little behind this in terms of absolute numbers of date records in a short space of time).

 

It would be great if we could finish on 10C or even a bit above.

Might as well get to a double figure CET now we've got this far.

 

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OMG global warming. I just calculated the last time we would have seen a december this warm.

I used your figure of 9.95C, and then used the mean and standard deviation of December using met-office monthly data. I assumed a constant climate and a Gaussian distribution of temperatures for simplicity sake. It was then a simple matter to calculate the value of the cumulative normal distribution using your figure, the result truly shocked me.

Based on your figure I calculated that the last time this happened was 2871 YEARS ago

And that doesn't account for climate change which probably means the last time this happened was over 3000 years ago.

Still this is a 1 in 2871 year event.

Holy bartlett.

 

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Holy bartlett.

 

Final rankings for the CET comp will be fun to see after this! I think I will remain in freefall......

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Just checking my own stats and I see that the mean minimum temperature for December this year so far is 9.0C at my location.

That is a ridiculous figure and is 7.2C above the long run mean. It is also 1.6C above the long run December mean maximum figure.

To put it into context the mean minimum for December is warmer than every other month this year apart from the three summer months. It is a full 1C warmer than September and 1.5C warmer than May.

The grass minimum mean for December so far is 5.98C which is warmer than September, October and November. Despite that I have recorded 1 solitary grass frost this month.

 

 

OMG global warming. I just calculated the last time we would have seen a december this warm.

I used your figure of 9.95C, and then used the mean and standard deviation of December using met-office monthly data. I assumed a constant climate and a Gaussian distribution of temperatures for simplicity sake. It was then a simple matter to calculate the value of the cumulative normal distribution using your figure, the result truly shocked me.

Based on your figure I calculated that the last time this happened was 2871 YEARS ago

And that doesn't account for climate change which probably means the last time this happened was over 3000 years ago.

Still this is a 1 in 2871 year event.

Holy bartlett.

 

That doesn't surprise me. I did wonder myself how to calculate the statistical probability of a December as warm as this. I went on the assumption of standard deviations from normal and although I don't know how to use this - my maths isn't brilliant. I am not surprised the figures turn out like this a 1 in 2,871 year event.

Just for comparison I did see the statistics for the Lynmouth flood disaster (August 1952) and the level of the Rivers West and East lyn and the statistical probability of that flood occurring again was a 1 in 20,000 year event.

 

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Met  Office  Hadley                  9.9c.         Anomaly       5.0c.    Provisional  to 23rd.

Metcheck                                9.75c.       Anomaly       4.75c.

Netweather                             10.41c.     Anomaly        5.32c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather             9.8c.       Anomaly        4.2c.

Clevedon Weather                     11.7c.      Anomaly        4.8c.

Mount  Sorrel                            10.0c.      Anomaly        4.9c.

Peasedown St John                     10.4c.     Anomaly        5.1c.

          

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It's clear that what put the record out of the reach of November was that cold spell from 21st - 24th when CET mean dailies were in the low singles (rounded to the nearest whole). A look at the list of days through the first half of the month gives regularly higher mean temps.

What's been singular about this month is not the warmth alone, despite the date records, but also the persistent lack of cold, or maybe  I should say the lack of persistent cold. December had half a dozen single digit means before mid month. Yet it is still topping (to 23rd) one of the warmest Novembers in recorded history.

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Met Office Hadley                9.8c.       Anomaly      5.0c.  Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                            9.56c.     Anomaly      4.57c.

Netweather                        10.34c.    Anomaly      5.25c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather       9.8c.      Anomaly       4.2c.

Clevedon Weather               11.6c.     Anomaly       4.7c.

Mount  Sorrel                      9.8c.       Anomaly       4.7c.

Peasedown St John              10.3c.     Anomaly       5.0c.

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The CET is currently on track to finish at 9.8C. The figures have been moving around a bit over the last few days.

Where we finish will to some extent hinge on the final day of the year which is looking somewhat cooler at the moment albeit still well above average. Date records look likely on the 27th and 30th which would give us 6 CET date records this month.

The CET will finish somewhere between 9.7C and 10.0C.

Also looking likely that a CET of 10C or more will be registered on 17 out of the 31 days this month which is phenomenal. Usually we get a handful of these in a warm winter month due to long fetch south-westerly's. But to get so many in a single month with such a persistent SW fetch is the reason why we have smashed the CET record.

My own records show the predominant wind direction as being SW every day this month apart from the 13th-15th when it was easterly. I have never known such a persistent SW set-up as we are seeing at the moment in southern areas.

 

Well the warmest 30 day CET run up to Christmas Day

2015: 9.5

And 5 years earlier, the coldest 30 day CET run up to Christmas Day or at least since 1772

2010: -1.2

A 10.7C difference!

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Met   Office  Hadley        9.8c.       Anomaly        5.0c.   Provisional to 25th. 

Metcheck                       9.68c.     Anomaly        4.68c.

Netweather                  10.29c.     Anomaly         5.2c.

 

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It would be great if we could just nudge it up to 10C.

 

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