The polar opposite to Dec 2010.

The mean temp to date here is 12.4c and likely to rise over the next couple of days,it is quite possible that a 10c+ mean could be achieved here for December which,would be incredible if it happened.

Its been an amazingly mild start to this month.

My thermometer has been on double figures both day and night and hardly a variation from 11C at all.

Saves on heating - If this keeps up then I reckon some of the daffodil and other bulbs will be coming through very soon.

 

Yes-similar for us. Yesterday morning it dipped to 4.4C but there have been no other days or nights below 11C. I remember a flush of high temps at the start of December 1985 but I couldn't say if they were this high.

---

Met Office Hadley                10.1c.      Anomaly    4.9c.

Metcheck                            10.36c.    Anomaly    5.36c.

Netweather                         11.15c     Anomaly    6.06c.

Peasedown  Mean                10.9c.      Anomaly    5.6c.

 

---

It's one of the great quirks that there have been two 8.1C Decembers but not one 5.9C.

 

Grandad, Saint and Roger reckon there'll be one this year.

---

Like HT states above, amazingly mild down here to start December, yesterday the pub was packed inside so we had to stand outside and have a drink, us and others also ( has a covered section ) and it was so mild it felt so strange looking through the windows at diners wearing Christmas hats lol.

P.S I'm hoping for an Artic Plunge ^^^ starting the 16th 

---

Met Office Hadley         10.5c.       Anomaly       5.3c.  Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                    10.58c.      Anomaly       5.59c.

Netweather                 11.19c.      Anomaly       6.1c.

Peasedown St John      11.1c.       Anomaly        5.8c.

---

It's looking rather likely that my tactical cold guess, made on the assumption most people would go warm, is not going to move me back up the table after Novembers losses

---

15C here today so that's not going to help my prediction.

---

Surprisingly mild here too.  Not helping my prediction but it's doing wonders for the heating bills.

---

Met Office Hadley                  10.6c.         Anomaly       5.4c. provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                              10.71c.       Anomaly       5.71c.

Netweather                           11.93c.       Anomaly       6.24c.

Peasedown Mean                   11.2c.         Anomaly       5.9c.      

---

My CET estimate for the first 8 days of December 2015 is 10.66C.

Previous warmest first 8 days of December was 10.08C in 1979. So this is easily the warmest start to winter on record since 1772.

None of the individual dates this year has set a date record. It has just been consistently mild throughout the first 8 days.

My CET estimate for the first 8 days of December 2015 is 10.66C.

Previous warmest first 8 days of December was 10.08C in 1979. So this is easily the warmest start to winter on record since 1772.

None of the individual dates this year has set a date record. It has just been consistently mild throughout the first 8 days.

 

You could be 1c out on the prediction this month but still be closest!

---

Met Office Hadley                  10.7c.         Anomaly       5.6c.   Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                              10.25c.       Anomaly        5.26c.

Netweather                           11.21c.       Anomaly        6.12c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather         10.6c.         Anomaly         5.0c.

Clevedon Weather                  12.1c.         Anomaly         5.2c.

Mount  Sorrel                         10.5c.         Anomaly         5.4c.

Peasedown St John   Mean       11.0c          Anomaly         5.7c.

---

What's the largest positive CET departure of any month on record? I don't recall seeing anything going much above +3C. The coldest months have seen much bigger negative departures than that, I would guess because of the positive feedback from snow cover.

We are currently North of +5C and some of the latest forecasts don't bring us down much up to Christmas.

In the absence of snow, might as well go all out for a big record (so long as that doesn't involve any more rainfall records).

---

I did predict a record breaking warm month this winter (most likely December) .....

Shame I didnt take notice of that with my CET prediction, which would now need more than the coldest Christmas on record to have any hope of coming off

---

My local mean to the 8th is 11.88*C which gives an anomaly of +6.67*C. Yes you read that right!

It drops a bit today having had a chilly night (1.2*C min) but thanks to a mild high (12.1*C) will still be 11.29*C and 6.15*C above the LTA.

 

You might think that a very mild December is a trait of strong El Nino winters, but actually the strong Euro High and westerlies from the subtropics don't usually kick in until closer to January based on the analogues, and even then it tends to be a flatter pattern with not quite so much of a draw from the vicinity of the Azores for example. So what we're seeing is unusual even against an El Nino background.

I went for 5.5*C in the hope that the pattern might amplify more and create a UK high or similar by around week 3, with chilly conditions developing at the surface. This still looks possible and would make a big dent in the figures, but the consensus isn't really pointing that way at all. 

This brings me on to my CET projection estimate using the 12z GFS operational run - one of the mildest we've seen so far. There's a tricky period to incorporate during the weekend due to a very large temperature contrast setting up in the vicinity of the CET zone, but for what it's worth;

The mean edges slowly downward to the 16th to be at around 9.2*C, which is still about 4*C above the LTA.

A very balmy run of days, featuring a couple of double-digit minimums and a max of 14.5*C for the 19th (no joke!), then causes the CET estimate to soar to around +9.6, near 4.5*C above the LTA.

The lower-res output (days 10-16) sees a slow decrease to be just above 9*C to the 25th. Even if conditions were dead-on average to the end of the month from there, the final CET would be between 8 and 8.4*C, smashing the previous record and producing a monthly anomaly in the Hadley records close to +4.5*C. Phwoar 

 

---

My local mean to the 8th is 11.88*C which gives an anomaly of +6.67*C. Yes you read that right!

It drops a bit today having had a chilly night (1.2*C min) but thanks to a mild high (12.1*C) will still be 11.29*C and 6.15*C above the LTA.

 

You might think that a very mild December is a trait of strong El Nino winters, but actually the strong Euro High and westerlies from the subtropics don't usually kick in until closer to January based on the analogues, and even then it tends to be a flatter pattern with not quite so much of a draw from the vicinity of the Azores for example. So what we're seeing is unusual even against an El Nino background.

I went for 5.5*C in the hope that the pattern might amplify more and create a UK high or similar by around week 3, with chilly conditions developing at the surface. This still looks possible and would make a big dent in the figures, but the consensus isn't really pointing that way at all. 

This brings me on to my CET projection estimate using the 12z GFS operational run - one of the mildest we've seen so far. There's a tricky period to incorporate during the weekend due to a very large temperature contrast setting up in the vicinity of the CET zone, but for what it's worth;

The mean edges slowly downward to the 16th to be at around 9.2*C, which is still about 4*C above the LTA.

A very balmy run of days, featuring a couple of double-digit minimums and a max of 14.5*C for the 19th (no joke!), then causes the CET estimate to soar to around +9.6, near 4.5*C above the LTA.

The lower-res output (days 10-16) sees a slow decrease to be just above 9*C to the 25th. Even if conditions were dead-on average to the end of the month from there, the final CET would be between 8 and 8.4*C, smashing the previous record and producing a monthly anomaly in the Hadley records close to +4.5*C. Phwoar 

 

Phew - I did wonder about that. Thanks for that excellent account there of the situation. 8.1C is the target to beat. That was set in 1974 and 1934.

 

---

My local mean to the 8th is 11.88*C which gives an anomaly of +6.67*C. Yes you read that right!

It drops a bit today having had a chilly night (1.2*C min) but thanks to a mild high (12.1*C) will still be 11.29*C and 6.15*C above the LTA.

 

You might think that a very mild December is a trait of strong El Nino winters, but actually the strong Euro High and westerlies from the subtropics don't usually kick in until closer to January based on the analogues, and even then it tends to be a flatter pattern with not quite so much of a draw from the vicinity of the Azores for example. So what we're seeing is unusual even against an El Nino background.

I went for 5.5*C in the hope that the pattern might amplify more and create a UK high or similar by around week 3, with chilly conditions developing at the surface. This still looks possible and would make a big dent in the figures, but the consensus isn't really pointing that way at all. 

This brings me on to my CET projection estimate using the 12z GFS operational run - one of the mildest we've seen so far. There's a tricky period to incorporate during the weekend due to a very large temperature contrast setting up in the vicinity of the CET zone, but for what it's worth;

The mean edges slowly downward to the 16th to be at around 9.2*C, which is still about 4*C above the LTA.

A very balmy run of days, featuring a couple of double-digit minimums and a max of 14.5*C for the 19th (no joke!), then causes the CET estimate to soar to around +9.6, near 4.5*C above the LTA.

The lower-res output (days 10-16) sees a slow decrease to be just above 9*C to the 25th. Even if conditions were dead-on average to the end of the month from there, the final CET would be between 8 and 8.4*C, smashing the previous record and producing a monthly anomaly in the Hadley records close to +4.5*C. Phwoar 

 

Remarkable. Let's grab that record ! 

---

Yes, SC.  I went for 5.5 as well but the further into this month we get, the more it looks like we'll be quite a way out.  And I had such a great start to the year!   

---

What's the largest positive CET departure of any month on record? I don't recall seeing anything going much above +3C. The coldest months have seen much bigger negative departures than that, I would guess because of the positive feedback from snow cover.

We are currently North of +5C and some of the latest forecasts don't bring us down much up to Christmas.

In the absence of snow, might as well go all out for a big record (so long as that doesn't involve any more rainfall records).

 

Based on 1961-90 averages:

Feb 1779 was +4.1C

Jun 1846 was +4.0C

and these were the only candidates at 4C or more I found

December has a 1961-90 average of 4.7C so would need to be 8.8C or more to tie or beat the record of Feb 1779. Unlikely but still so-able on current form

 

---