Thank You GW for doing the CET Prediction  Monthly.  Expect mine to be an average for this month.   Hope for a cold spell or TWO..

GW

Am I able to join the prediction game at the end of the year, or do I need to be part of it for the whole calendar year, & ergo start in January?

Thanks

Bertie

Many thanks GW- the best answer I had hoped for.

Bertie

But you'll have to stretch it a bit to break that record: 8.1C in 1934 and 1974

I've PM'd my prediction to you GW.

Good luck to all this month! 

Many thanks GW!  It's been a fantastic turnout this year.  The competition grows by the year, which shows just how popular it is!

I'm looking forward to the final table of the year and hoping for my best position yet, although November was a giant fly in the ointment for me this year. 

Just to clarify that anyone can join in the fun on the monthly predictions at any time of the year, as long as it's at the beginning of the month.   The more, the merrier and we promise not to bite!   

December is currently looking like a very similar set up to November in terms of extreme warmth.

The output this morning has the CET at 8.9C by the 12th. This is 3.8C above the 1981-2010 mean.

However, it is not unprecedented. Indeed 2000 was a degree warmer. Here are the warmest first 12 days of December on record:

2000 9.86C
1898 9.77C
1934 9.40C
1979 9.33C
2015 8.90C EST
1831 8.88C
1918 8.88C

In recent times most years that have had a warm November and December have gone on to have either a very mild rest of the winter of something closer to average. This has happened quite a few times in recent years - 2011, 2006, 2002, 1997, 1994 (1997 was the only El Nino year but it was a very strong one).

Going further back there are a couple of exceptions. 1986 being the obvious one when Jan, Feb and Mar 1987 all ended up cooler than average. 1986 was a moderate El Nino year. 1953 is the other which saw Jan and Feb 1954 quite cold. There was a weak El Nino that year.

The best match is probably 1986 which saw a cool September followed by very warm months in Oct - Dec. This pattern is very similar to 2015.

However if we look at the QBO we see that 1953 and 1986 were in the easterly phase. All the warm years were either in a westerly or neutral phase apart from 2011 which does stand out at somewhat odd.

As Gavin's model roundup this morning on his website shows, there are mixed messages from the models. Some want to go with a very mild winter whereas some others want to go with a progressive set up starting mild in December and turning colder in February. There is support for both scenarios from the analogues. Very difficult to know which one is more likely.

On balance my inclination would be to favour the milder solution simply because of the QBO phase. In 2013/14 we saw a very mild winter with a very positive QBO. Last year the QBO was a record negative and the winter was much cooler, albeit it was not cooler than average just average. This year the QBO is looking likely to swing from the record negative last year to a record positive this year. The October reading was +13.4 which is higher than the +11.7 in 2013. The previous highest October reading was +13.1 in 1980.

However, a positive QBO does not necessarily mean a mild winter. 1985 is a good example of an exception. A very warm December was followed by four very cold months in early 1986.

So I think the best that can be said is there is probably about a 50% chance of a very mild winter and a 50% chance of a very mild first half of the winter with possibly a very much colder second half which could extend into March.

I am surprised that 1974 isn't in there.

Here we go again with the first  set of CET this month.   Will settle down after 3 days.

Met Office Hadley                    9.3c.          Anomaly         5.27c.      provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                              10.26c.        Anomaly          5.27c.

Netweather                           10.95c.        Anomaly          5.86c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather           9.7c.          Anomaly          4.1c.   

Clevedon Weather                  12.3c.          Anomaly          5.4c. 

Mount Sorrel                          10.4c.          Anomaly          5.3c.

Peasedown St John Mean         11.5c.         Anomaly          6.2c.

Annual Mean     11.1c.   Difference  5.4c.

Not settling down...  Gone  up a bit.......

Met  Office  Hadley                10.1c.           Anomaly          5.1c.    Provisional to 2nd,

Metcheck                              10.70            Anomaly          5.70.

Netweather                           11.35c.         Anomaly           6.26c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather         10.4c.           Anomaly           4.8c.

Clevedon Weather                  12.8c.          Anomaly            5.9c.   

Mount   Sorrel                        11.1c.          Anomaly            6.0c.

Peasedown St John Mean         11.4c.          Anomaly            6.1c.             

With a balmy run of temperatures Sat-Mon the CET is likely to again be extremely anomalous by the start of Tuesday, following some mitigation tomorrow.

My local mean is looking even more remarkable; it was 12.6*C for the first two days giving an anomaly of +7.0*C, and if today's maximum is close to expected (i.e. only slightly above the minimum last night - so likely to at least meet that level and could even exceed it), then it'll be +7.1*C for the first 3 days.

Sure, Friday looks like knocking the anomaly down to +6.0*C, but going by the latest model guidance it'll be back up to around +7.0*C by Sunday before a slight drop to around +6.6*C by Monday's end. That's some going for a 7-day mean!

As similar as this seems to November, there's plenty of suggestion that cooler conditions will be in place for the second 7-day period, though it may still be no lower than average and could even remain above that depending on how well a ridge from the southwest is able to push north and bring anticyclonic conditions with surface cooling.

 

I am surprised that 1974 isn't in there.

 

1974 maintained it month-long to go TOTP for the whole calendar month; but there were a few days that were colder in the second week.

Met Office Hadley           10.4c.    Anomaly    5.4c.    Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                       10.27c.  Anomaly    5.28c.

Netweather                    11.51c.  Anomaly    6.42c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather  10.5c.    Anomaly    4.9c.

Clevedon Weather           12.5c     Anomaly    5.6c.

Mount   Sorrel                 10.7c.    Anomaly    5.6c.

Peasedown St John          11.6c.    Anomaly    6.3c.        

Can anybody tell me where the predictions from all members is posted? I think that might also be GW but I think the thread was something like ' the prediction challenge' or 'game'. I used to see it early in the month and it was like a table.

Cheers

Bertie 

Can anybody tell me where the predictions from all members is posted? I think that might also be GW but I think the thread was something like ' the prediction challenge' or 'game'. I used to see it early in the month and it was like a table.

Cheers

Bertie 

GW will post the table in here Bertie,should be any day now.

Thanks Cowman; the anticipation is only (just) behind the Christmas weather.

Bertie

 

Thanks Cowman; the anticipation is only (just) behind the Christmas weather.

Bertie

Crikey 

Met Office Hadley                  10.0c           Anomaly        4.9c.   Provisional to   4th.

Metcheck                              10.36c.        Anomaly         5.36c.

Netweather                           11.5c.         Anomaly          5.96c.

Peasedown St john                10.9c.         Anomaly           5.6c.                

Its been an amazingly mild start to this month.

My thermometer has been on double figures both day and night and hardly a variation from 11C at all.

Saves on heating - If this keeps up then I reckon some of the daffodil and other bulbs will be coming through very soon.