Be interested in tomorrows CET.

Around here in the centre of the zone we never got above 8.9C, with a min of 6.1C due to fog.

Pershore isn't too far away It depends upon whether the other stations escaped the fog.

It could easily have a variation of -3C  compared to yesterday. (when the sun did break through!).

All apparently under the same mild airmass.

Pershore was 15.5c yesterday with an overnight min of 8.4c - both about 3c above ave.  

However my back garden about 6 miles away was just 10.6c ....

Met Office Hadley                 10.2c.         Anomaly        1.2c.  Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                              8.38c.        Anomaly        1.46c.

Netweather                           9.39c.        Anomaly        2.5c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather         9.5c.          Anomaly        0.6c.

Clevedon Weather                 11.4c.        Anomaly         1.8c.

Mount     Sorrel                      8.7c.        Anomaly          1.8c.

My Peasedown  Mean              9.9c.        Anomaly          1.5c.  

Keen to see the list of what everyone's gone for this month

 

Met Office Hadley              9.9c.         Anomaly           1.2c. Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                          9.13c.        Anomaly            2.21c.

Netweather                       9.68c.        Anomaly            2.79c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather     9.1c.         Anomaly             0.2c.

Clevedon Weather            11.7c.         Anomaly             2.1c,

Mount Sorrel                    9.4c.           Anomaly             2.5c. 

 My Peasedown Mean        10.3c .        Anomaly             0.3c.

Not a particularly warm start to the month but over the next week the CET could climb as high as 12C before gradually falling back. At the moment it does look like a potentially very warm month but of course that could all change if it were to turn cold later in the month.

Here are the predictions for November. Almost without exception a warm month is being predicted. No surprise really given the model output of late.

Thanks Simon, most going for a mild, to very mild month.

Oh dear, looking at the table of predictions for November and the way the current output is going, I think I am in for a disaster! Not sure where I am in the overall table, but think it will be curtains for me after this.......oh well 😂

Thanks GW for all of the updates and hard work......

Thank you GW for the Predictions and the work put into it.

My prediction is where I expected it to be.  Should have gone for 7.75c. but had a stab for mine,

Met Office Hadley             10.2c       Anomaly       1.8c.    Provisional   to  4th.

Metcheck                          9.72c.     Anomaly        2.80c.

Netweather                      10.37c.    Anomaly        3.48c  

Cheadle Hulme Weather    9.9c.       Anomaly         1.0c.

Clevedon Weather            12.2c.     Anomaly          2.6c.

Mount     Sorrel                10.1c.     Anomaly          3.2c

My   Peasedown  Mean      10.8c.     Anomaly          2.4c.       

Thanks to GW for posting the predictions,certainly looking an interesting month and almost certainly will end up  the 1st above average month since April,just by how much though? IMBY on the south coast the lowest minimum temp so far is 10.7c highest max 18.7c I remember as a kid, bonfire nights being cold and frosty with everyone in coats and scarfs,this year its t shirt and,shorts oh and a brolly  To think this month so far has seen both minimum and maximum temperatures well above some of those recorded in July this year!!  Only in the uk eh

Thanks for the update GW!

A warm prediction for this month.  Despite going just above average, I'm in the lower few but I'm not worried YET! 

I'm currently witnessing an unusual trend; my annual mean for my location continue to climb slowly but steadily at a time when it's usually falling. This has been known to happen for a run of a few days at a time in years past, but this year it looks like being the case for pretty much the whole first half of the month and perhaps beyond!

If my local monthly mean finishes at more than 11.04*C then there will have been the first Oct-Nov rise in my records. Typically over the past 15 years the annual mean has fallen about 0.5*C from Oct to Nov.

The mean to Oct is higher than 2010, 2012 and 2013 but lower than all the other years going back to 2000. Yet to November it could end up higher than 2004, 2005, and perhaps 2009 at a stretch (11.09*C). There can be no catching the 11.54*C of 2011 though, let alone the 11.95*C of 2014!

2011 and 2014 were 1.6*C and 0.7*C above the LTA in December respectively, so it would take something truly incredible to bring 2015 much closer after this month has passed. But to end up more than halfway up the pack having been so close to average for the first 10 months would be quite a feat.

Here's a fun fact - if this month continued to be about as mild through to the end, my minimum temperature anomaly would be around +7.0*C and max anomaly around +4.0*C. I've known subtropical-sourced air to bring mid-teens temps in December (as have many of us) so technically that is achievable should the Azores Low/Euro High pattern keep recurring with barely a pause for breath in between each round.

As I might have mentioned before, and its worth me mentioning it again -  the all time CET record for November is 10.1C made in 1994.

Met Office Hadley              10.6c.          Anomaly        2.3c.    Provisional to  5th.

Metcheck                          10.37c.        Anomaly          3.45c.

Netweather                       11.08c.        Anomaly          4.19c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather    10.5c.          Anomaly         1.26c

Clevedon Weather               12.6c.        Anomaly          3.0c.

Mount    Sorrel                    10.8c.        Anomaly          3.9c.

My Peasedown   Mean          11.3c.        Anomaly          2.9c.

For the second day running, both the minimum and maximum temperature values have exceeded expectations. A new date record for both and based on GFS the first of many especially in terms of maximums.

The model has actually backed off a bit on the exceptionally high temps tonight, having been going for 14-15*C repeatedly only to now drop values to around 12*C. Yet I can see the conveyor of cloud and associated 'warm' air coming in from the southwest on the satellite imagery, and the temp outside is currently a bonkers 15.6*C and holding steady, so I'm not sure where this adjustment has come from really!

Amazing that today's record peak of 16.4*C occurred (at 1pm) with barely even a hint of sunshine and following some heavy rain in the morning. Not only that but it was 16.0*C again at 5pm just after the drizzle finally stopped.

Today's local mean comes in at 14.6*C, which gives a date anomaly of +6.5*C!

For the second day running, both the minimum and maximum temperature values have exceeded expectations. A new date record for both and based on GFS the first of many especially in terms of maximums.

The model has actually backed off a bit on the exceptionally high temps tonight, having been going for 14-15*C repeatedly only to now drop values to around 12*C. Yet I can see the conveyor of cloud and associated 'warm' air coming in from the southwest on the satellite imagery, and the temp outside is currently a bonkers 15.6*C and holding steady, so I'm not sure where this adjustment has come from really!

Amazing that today's record peak of 16.4*C occurred (at 1pm) with barely even a hint of sunshine and following some heavy rain in the morning. Not only that but it was 16.0*C again at 5pm just after the drizzle finally stopped.

Today's local mean comes in at 14.6*C, which gives a date anomaly of +6.5*C!

I git to 17C today and overcast non stop. I often wonder what it would have been if the sun was out. Just a guess but I reckon 22C.

What is the 24 hour period CET record for November incidentally :-)

I calculate today's CET as 14.23C. This is a positive anomaly of +6.0C compared to the 1981-2010 mean.

This just about makes it into the top 10 warmest November days on record

Top 10 prior to today were:

05 November 1938 15.4C
03 November 1996 15.0C
03 November 1927 14.6C
13 November 1938 14.6C
22 November 1947 14.4C
02 November 1821 14.3C
02 November 1811 14.2C
04 November 1946 14.2C
02 November 1894 14.0C

Keep an eye on next Tuesday. We could see a CET even higher than today. Currently I am estimating a figure of 14.8C.