Please send your November CET predictions to me via PM please. This is to ensure we don't get tactical predictions for the last couple of months of the 2015 competition. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Saturday evening (31st). Final deadline is same time on Monday evening (2nd).

Sorry I am short of time so only a brief analysis below.

Novmber historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

A mix of temperatures in November in recent years. Last year was mild with 8.6C and 2011 even warmer with 9.6C. We have had a lot of mild Novembers in the past 20 years. 2013 was cool with 6.2C and 2010 very cool with 5.2C.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 6.9C
1981-2010: 7.1C
1995-2014: 7.4C

Here is a chart of the November CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Met Office Contingency planners forecast
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/c/o/A3_plots-temp-NDJ_v1.pdf

Probability analysis suggests a slightly milder than average month.

November CET tracker
Here are the current prediction charts for the first part of November. Very mild sums it up.

Hi Simon - Just stickied this for you as per normal. :-)

Looks a very mild start - which is nice - Saves on heating.

For what it's worth I did a loose estimate using todays' GFS 12z op run and to 10th Nov the anomaly stood at +4*C.

That's the strongest positive temperature anomaly signal I can recall seeing for a 10 day period in a long, long time.

Have gone for a lower temperature . Just taking a stab at it .Might end up going lower come the end of the month if the skies clear at night. Here's hoping anyway....

Have there ever been two consecutive years with the Nov CET above 8c?

The 12z GFS today was even more bonkers than yesterday's; the estimated anomaly peaks at around +5.3*C for 1st-9th and is still +5.0*C for 1st-11th.

However, it then tumbles away as fresher air moves in but it remains settled - meaning chilly nights - with the anomaly down to around +3.8*C by the 14th. That's still a large anomaly though, enough so that average conditions for 15th-30th would still leave the CET at nearly +2.0*C for the month as a whole.

Among the most extreme features of the run temperature-wise is a 15.0*C minimum in parts of the southeast on the 8th. This leads me to wonder what the record is for the highest November minimum...? If we can't be doing low temps then we may as well challenge records at the other end of the scale 

The 12z GFS today was even more bonkers than yesterday's; the estimated anomaly peaks at around +5.3*C for 1st-9th and is still +5.0*C for 1st-11th.

However, it then tumbles away as fresher air moves in but it remains settled - meaning chilly nights - with the anomaly down to around +3.8*C by the 14th. That's still a large anomaly though, enough so that average conditions for 15th-30th would still leave the CET at nearly +2.0*C for the month as a whole.

Among the most extreme features of the run temperature-wise is a 15.0*C minimum in parts of the southeast on the 8th. This leads me to wonder what the record is for the highest November minimum...? If we can't be doing low temps then we may as well challenge records at the other end of the scale 

Highest November minimum is 15.9C at Eastbourne on 3 November 2005.

I don't get anomalies quite as big as you but nevertheless I get a figure well above 3C for the first 12 days of the month this evening compared to the 1971-2000 mean and around 3C when compared to the 1981-2010 mean.

If these figures verify we are in for a potential record breaking warm first 2 weeks of November. This will be in large part driven by high minimums. Below are the warmest first 11 days of November on record in the CET series since 1772

1938 11.70C
2015 11.53C EST
1982 11.15C

No other year above 11C.

 

Highest November minimum is 15.9C at Eastbourne on 3 November 2005.

I don't get anomalies quite as big as you but nevertheless I get a figure well above 3C for the first 12 days of the month this evening compared to the 1971-2000 mean and around 3C when compared to the 1981-2010 mean.

If these figures verify we are in for a potential record breaking warm first 2 weeks of November. This will be in large part driven by high minimums. Below are the warmest first 11 days of November on record in the CET series since 1772

1938 11.70C
2015 11.53C EST
1982 11.15C

No other year above 11C.

Just to add to this interesting debate.

The mildest November on record was 1994 with a CET of 10.1C

 

Just to add to this interesting debate.

The mildest November on record was 1994 with a CET of 10.1C

FWIW, 1994 also happens to be regularly topping the list in the NOAA upstream analogues.

This is a tricky one!  We've been bitten before when making CET predictions for the whole of the coming month on the strength of forecasts for the first few days.  

So, do we predict with caution?  Or do we get carried away with the current output?

I think it's just one of those years where the seasons meld into one and will end with a fairly average annual CET.

I went for a low figure which will probably be at the bottom of the predictions....👻😈💀👿👽🎃🆒

The way things are shaping up the first half of November is looking like it could be record breaking in terms of temperature. Some remarkably high minimums expected later this week along with fairly high maximums. Not an especially warm start but turning very warm by the middle of the week.

In fact based on the chart below the first half of November would be warmer than the first half of October! I have added the data for the first half of October on to the chart for comparison purposes.

 

Just to add to this interesting debate.

The mildest November on record was 1994 with a CET of 10.1C

If the projected synoptics hold then that record could very well go this year. I have a feeling now we have turned a corner and will see a run of above averge months,temperature wise.

Now I'm wondering how the year is shaping up generally and if it will end as just an average year.  We didn't have a bad winter, but it was a cool spring, then summer was below average but will Autumn and early winter be above average?

Met Office Hadley                   11.0c.      Anomaly         1.9c.  Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                                8.22c       Anomaly          1.30c.

Netweather                             9.9c.        Anomaly          3.01c.

Cheadle Hulme  Weather        10.7c.        Anomaly          0.8c.

Clevedon Weather                 10.8c.        Anomaly          1.2c.   

Mount     Sorrel                      8.5c.         Anomaly          1.6c.

My  Peasedown  Mean             9.7c.         Anomaly          1.3c.

So, November begins with the same CET that October ended with. 

If the CET areas are the same as here, the forecast high temps are being kept down by persistent fog, so perhaps the month won't quite get such a warm start.  Oh, don't you just love the models and the British weather!!!! 

Met Office Hadley                   11.0c.      Anomaly         1.9c.  Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                                8.22c       Anomaly          1.30c.

Netweather                             9.9c.        Anomaly          3.01c.

Cheadle Hulme  Weather        10.7c.        Anomaly          0.8c.

Clevedon Weather                 10.8c.        Anomaly          1.2c.   

Mount     Sorrel                      8.5c.         Anomaly          1.6c.

My  Peasedown  Mean             9.7c.         Anomaly          1.3c.

Be interested in tomorrows CET.

Around here in the centre of the zone we never got above 8.9C, with a min of 6.1C due to fog.

Pershore isn't too far away It depends upon whether the other stations escaped the fog.

It could easily have a variation of -3C  compared to yesterday. (when the sun did break through!).

All apparently under the same mild airmass.

Keen to see the list of what everyone's gone for this month

Met Office Hadley                 10.2c.         Anomaly        1.2c.  Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                              8.38c.        Anomaly        1.46c.

Netweather                           9.39c.        Anomaly        2.5c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather         9.5c.          Anomaly        0.6c.

Clevedon Weather                 11.4c.        Anomaly         1.8c.

Mount     Sorrel                      8.7c.        Anomaly          1.8c.

My Peasedown  Mean              9.9c.        Anomaly          1.5c.