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Offline pdiddy  
#41 Posted : 06 September 2015 08:01:11(UTC)
pdiddy

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Location: Edinburgh, 93m ASL

... of course, once the OPI data is complete this year, we will, ahem, have answers to all of these questions.

 

Offline Gooner  
#42 Posted : 06 September 2015 08:10:41(UTC)
Gooner

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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post
Lot's of snow over Scotland and Northern England then by the looks of things - if this turns out true!

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/WinterPrediction-for-the-UK-Latest-from-KasimsWeatherWatcher.png

Pinch of salt Tally

I hope we do get a 10 day cold spell , they dont occur that often

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun




Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L


Offline Gooner  
#43 Posted : 06 September 2015 08:15:53(UTC)
Gooner

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January: Uncertain, However we are likely to see some small SSW events, (warming of the stratosphere), leading to a largely cool month with snowfall even in Southern areas at times.

 

But previously he mentions any SSW will be surpressed by a Westerly QBO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun




Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L


Offline Essan  
#44 Posted : 06 September 2015 10:56:36(UTC)
Essan

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Antarctica
Location: Albion

According to the SLATless Antipodean Forecasting Method, I reckon we are looking at late start to winter, with little or no ski-ing until after Christmas, one widepread cold/snowy spell, probably one record (or near record) warm month overall, but maybe a fair bit of snow in Scotland in February 

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others - DNA

Weather & Earth Science News
Online Gavin P  
#45 Posted : 06 September 2015 11:45:51(UTC)
Gavin P

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Tally, Winter updates are going to be weekly - Every Sunday - Between now and end of the November!

 

 

Originally Posted by: pdiddy Go to Quoted Post

... of course, once the OPI data is complete this year, we will, ahem, have answers to all of these questions.

 

I discuss the ill fated "OPI" in my first Winter update today! 

#backtothebegnning

Edited by user 06 September 2015 11:51:39(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/
Offline Matty H  
#46 Posted : 06 September 2015 11:52:39(UTC)
Matty H

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Location: Lost

Gav, in terms of seasonal forecasting we have never left the beginning. In fact we haven't even reached the start line. 

Yate, Nr Bristol


Offline Solar Cycles  
#47 Posted : 06 September 2015 12:03:02(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Location: Blackburn Lancs

"

Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post

Gav, in terms of seasonal forecasting we have never left the beginning. In fact we haven't even reached the start line. 

Yes after many years of looking at the next big fad for seasonal forecasts I'm now In the Matty H camp of seasonal adjusted forecasts.😁

Online Gavin P  
#48 Posted : 06 September 2015 12:15:17(UTC)
Gavin P

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United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post

Gav, in terms of seasonal forecasting we have never left the beginning. In fact we haven't even reached the start line. 

I meant the "beginning" of where we left off last winter!

Not sure if you've noticed but I've started the Winter updates ever so slightly earlier than normal this year? I thought I'd add a couple of weeks of extra updates just for you cause I know how much you enjoy Winter and long range forecasting! 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/
Weatherstu  
#49 Posted : 06 September 2015 13:23:28(UTC)
Guest

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Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9

Hi Guys,

El Nino is certainly going to be a crucial factor among many this winter and my research has thrown up some interesting results. The strong el ninos of 82 & 97 both had warming in the 1+2 region so I took all ninos with warmth in this region and the overriding pattern was for mild winters.

Now all the ninos with warming in the 3.4 region which this year is heading for, showed a much cooler winter pattern. All this info and images can be found on my webpage (chorleyweather.com). Certainly puts a spanner in the mild outcome but many other factors could override this.

 

Offline Brendon Hills Bandit  
#50 Posted : 06 September 2015 15:07:44(UTC)
Brendon Hills Bandit

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 130
Location: Close to Wiveliscombe, Somerset/Devon border.

Originally Posted by: Weatherstu Go to Quoted Post

Hi Guys,

El Nino is certainly going to be a crucial factor among many this winter and my research has thrown up some interesting results. The strong el ninos of 82 & 97 both had warming in the 1+2 region so I took all ninos with warmth in this region and the overriding pattern was for mild winters.

Now all the ninos with warming in the 3.4 region which this year is heading for, showed a much cooler winter pattern. All this info and images can be found on my webpage (chorleyweather.com). Certainly puts a spanner in the mild outcome but many other factors could override this.

 

 

Yes this upcoming El Nino is forecast to be central-based, though not nailed on yet. What could be interesting is if turns out to be a Strong/Very Strong central El Nino, because I don't think that's even happened before. I read something the other day that said this el nino is developing in a way that hasnt ever happened before. Unchartered territory and all that.

220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
Online Jonesy  
#51 Posted : 07 September 2015 13:35:00(UTC)
Jonesy

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Man
Location: Medway

The first one to state winter is over deserves a ban 

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .


Offline Saint Snow  
#52 Posted : 07 September 2015 13:49:26(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

I want Brian to bring back the Winter Optimism Index

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Online Jonesy  
#53 Posted : 07 September 2015 14:05:02(UTC)
Jonesy

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/07/2008(UTC)
Posts: 3,988
Man
Location: Medway

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

I want Brian to bring back the Winter Optimism Index

Talking of Optimism I have a 7% chance of a White Christmas 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .


Offline Global Warming  
#54 Posted : 07 September 2015 21:32:54(UTC)
Global Warming

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Posts: 5,934
United Kingdom
Location: Basingstoke

Thanks to cooling climate for the very interesting AO stats. I have been taking a look at these in a bit more detail.

Of course any stats have to be taken with a large pinch of salt as we saw with the OPI last winter. An apparent good hindsight correlation proved of no use whatsoever in predicting last winter despite a heavily negative OPI figure.

A moderate to strong El Nino is often not a good sign for a cold winter in the UK but this is not always the case. 2009/10 was a classic exception to this. I have been highlighting 2009/10 for a while now as it has strong similarities in many ways to how 2015 is shaping up weather wise.

The table below shows all years with an average July Arctic Index figure of less than -0.40C since records began in 1950. You will notice that the lowest reading was recorded in 2009. Interestingly 2015 comes in second place and it is only the second time we have seen an average July AO index below -1 and only the second time that every day in July the AO index was negative.

The top 10 years in the list below all went on to record a negative AO index for the 3 winter months as a whole when taking an average figure over those 3 months. As we go down the table the situation is different as there are a mix of positive and negative winter AO readings.

If we look at the winter CET we see that the top 5 years all recorded much colder than average winters. Again as you go down the table this pattern is not repeated and winters are much closer to average or even above towards the bottom of the table.

So only those years with heavily negative July AO readings seem to go on to record cold winters (1978 being something of an exception as the July AO was only moderately negative).

I also included the QBO for interest as this is an important variable when it comes to the winter. The top 6 years in the table all saw negative or very negative QBO readings. The top 6 years all highlighted in yellow saw strong negative July AO, strong negative winter AO and a negative winter QBO. In 5 of those 6 years the winter CET was well below average. The only exception was 2000/2001 when the CET was bang on average during the winter.

Also included is the ENSO state for interest. The coding of the first letter is W for weak, M for medium and S for strong (VS for very strong in one case). The second letter indicates El Nino (E) or La Nina (L).

Worth noting that this year the QBO is almost certainly going to be positive this winter so it will be interesting to see what impact that might have. On the face of it this should reduce the likelihood of a cold winter. But then we had a record negative QBO last winter which did not help generate particularly cold conditions. Also important to note that a positive QBO does not prevent a cold winter. 1978/9 which is listed in the table below is clear evidence of this.

So as ever caution is required when looking at any stats but I thought this was an interesting set of data to throw into the mix when thinking about what general patterns we might see this winter.

I make these comments purely as an observation and I do not for moment suggest that this is an indication we are likely to see a cold winter this year. But the data does make interesting reading.

Edited by user 07 September 2015 21:38:26(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Medlock Vale Weather  
#55 Posted : 11 September 2015 19:17:49(UTC)
Medlock Vale Weather

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Location: Oldham

Here we go again, Nathan Rao has posted his annual "day after tomorrow" scenario, all very predictable from him http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/604619/Long-range-weather-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2015-arctic-snow-freeze

 

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 93 metres/305 feet above sea level.
Website: http://medlockweather.weebly.com
Weather station location: http://bit.ly/VI9CNu
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/...wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Offline roger63  
#56 Posted : 11 September 2015 19:37:31(UTC)
roger63

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Location: Winchester,Hampshire

Over on Buzz Brian Gaze has posted his first "UK winter 2015/2016 outlook".

His introduction is as follows "Sitting on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean means that the Uk's climate is a temperate maritime one.Colder winters do occur but they are the exception not the norm and are usually caused by high Pressure developing to the north"

Such a circulation is NAO -ve .Using Tom Osborn's NAO data file we can quantify the incidence of NAO winters.Across the 190 winters (DJF) from 1825/6 to 2014/5 there were only 60 NAO - winters(32%) as opposed to 130 NAO +winters.(68%).In simple terms  an NAO -winter occurred once every three years.

Another way of looking at the data it is to calculate the persistence of winter type.ie how many of months in a given winter have in the extended winter DJFM have the same NAO sign.This shows 63% of  NAO -winters have 3 or 4 months NAO -.whereas the figure for NAO + is 83%.

To have any use for this data requires  accurate forecasting of the NAO which is still some way off.However I had a look at using actual NAO data for December the first month of winter to see if that helped in forecasting the rest of winter NAO signs.

Looking at the month of December, over the 190 years there were 83 NAO -winters (DJF)(45%) and 107 NAO + (55%).If we now look at seeing if the sign averaged out the same over the rest of the winter then we find that NAO- Decembers produced an average DJF NAO- winter in just 55% of  cases.For NAO + Decembers however the figure was 86%.

Conclusion if December is an NAO +month (and we often know that well before the end of the month) there is an 85% chance that the overall winter DJF will be NAO +.

 

 

 

 

 

Offline Solar Cycles  
#57 Posted : 12 September 2015 07:46:39(UTC)
Solar Cycles

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/09/2008(UTC)
Posts: 17,461
Man
Location: Blackburn Lancs

Originally Posted by: roger63 Go to Quoted Post

Over on Buzz Brian Gaze has posted his first "UK winter 2015/2016 outlook".

His introduction is as follows "Sitting on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean means that the Uk's climate is a temperate maritime one.Colder winters do occur but they are the exception not the norm and are usually caused by high Pressure developing to the north"

Such a circulation is NAO -ve .Using Tom Osborn's NAO data file we can quantify the incidence of NAO winters.Across the 190 winters (DJF) from 1825/6 to 2014/5 there were only 60 NAO - winters(32%) as opposed to 130 NAO +winters.(68%).In simple terms  an NAO -winter occurred once every three years.

Another way of looking at the data it is to calculate the persistence of winter type.ie how many of months in a given winter have in the extended winter DJFM have the same NAO sign.This shows 63% of  NAO -winters have 3 or 4 months NAO -.whereas the figure for NAO + is 83%.

To have any use for this data requires  accurate forecasting of the NAO which is still some way off.However I had a look at using actual NAO data for December the first month of winter to see if that helped in forecasting the rest of winter NAO signs.

Looking at the month of December, over the 190 years there were 83 NAO -winters (DJF)(45%) and 107 NAO + (55%).If we now look at seeing if the sign averaged out the same over the rest of the winter then we find that NAO- Decembers produced an average DJF NAO- winter in just 55% of  cases.For NAO + Decembers however the figure was 86%.

Conclusion if December is an NAO +month (and we often know that well before the end of the month) there is an 85% chance that the overall winter DJF will be NAO +.

 

 

 

 

 

Intersting stuff, I hadn't realised that the odds are stacked so high against a -NAO for the rest of the winter if December comes in at positive values.

Offline Deep Powder  
#58 Posted : 12 September 2015 19:11:52(UTC)
Deep Powder

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,406
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather Go to Quoted Post

Here we go again, Nathan Rao has posted his annual "day after tomorrow" scenario, all very predictable from him http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/604619/Long-range-weather-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2015-arctic-snow-freeze

 

Wow they have really gone for it this time. Even by their standards, that is a dire prognostication....made me laugh out loud reading it!

Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Offline sizzle  
#59 Posted : 12 September 2015 19:36:18(UTC)
sizzle

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Joined: 21/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,413
Man
Location: Essex

i just read in theory a cool wet september can lead to a cold winter ?

so my questions if anyone can answer, here in essex in 1995 was very cold and snowy,

did we have a cool wet september in 1995 that leaded to that cold snowy winter in 1995,?

did we have a cool wet september in 2000 ? and was it a cold winter with snow ?

same question again for 2005 ?

2010 was the deep freeze as everyone knows, did we have a cool wet september then to lead up to that deep freeze ?

this is all just in theory and to see if there is a pattern in our weather.

if thats the case, a cool wet september can lead to a cold snowy winter every 5 years does that also mean the 4 years inbetween remains a mild winter/ wet mild winter ? as the last 4 years have been mild winters with late indian summers.

 

Offline Andy Woodcock  
#60 Posted : 12 September 2015 23:59:47(UTC)
Andy Woodcock

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Joined: 16/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,995

Clearly the Express Article is well over the top but for once they have some science behind the wild predictions.

Should the North Atlantic SST,s continue 2c below normal just west of the UK this could have a real impact on our winter weather as any north westerly outbreak will be colder than normal.

Such an SST profile can also encourage North Atlantic blocking high pressure which of course can cause northerly outbreaks.

I really don't expect a severe winter but a rerun of 1997/98 due to the strong El Niño is IMO too simplistic, other forces are also at work.

Andy
Andy Woodcock
Plumpton
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 435 feet

"I survived The Mega Bartlett Winter of 2015/16 With My Mental Health Just About Intact"
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