I could do with it warming up a bit now if it's going to reach my 7c guess. 

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I could do with it warming up a bit now if it's going to reach my 7c guess. 

 

It won't go up today!

I'm still clinging to the hope that it'll stay close to 6c in order to mitigate the damage for me.

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Met Office Hadley     6.2c.     Anomaly    0.7c.   Provisional to   24th.

Metcheck                5.77c.    Anomaly    -0.39c.

N-W                        6.45c.    Anomaly     0.16c 

Mount Sorrel            6.2c.

My Mean                  6.1c.     Anomaly     -1.5c.

 

 

Later post due to walking in the sunshine...

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It won't go up today!

I'm still clinging to the hope that it'll stay close to 6c in order to mitigate the damage for me.

It doesn't look like it will go up soon enough for me and I have some points to catch up on, due to my late entry penalties last month.  At this late stage of the month, there needs to be a fair rise or fall in daily temps for it to change enough for either of us.   

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A monumental cock up on my part. Thats my challenge over for the year.

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A monumental cock up on my part. Thats my challenge over for the year.

You`re not the only one Gusty

You`re not the only one Gusty

  And you're both at each end of the spectrum!   

Don't give up though, there's plenty of time for us all to make monumental cock ups! 

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A terrible performance by the longer range model output for this month - some consolation for those who went for 7*C and above.

Despite this I will continue the experiment... so far there's not much of a signal for April's temperatures either side of average. So expect an unusual month 

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Met Office Hadley      6.1c   Anomaly    0.7c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                  5.74c. Anomaly    -0.42c. 

N-W                         6.37c. Anomaly     0.08c.

Mount Sorrel             6.1c.

My Mean                   6.1c.  Anomaly     -1.6c.

My Annual                 5.0c.  Anomaly     -0.7c

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Met Office Hadley      6.1c   Anomaly    0.7c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                  5.74c. Anomaly    -0.42c. 

N-W                         6.37c. Anomaly     0.08c.

Mount Sorrel             6.1c.

My Mean                   6.1c.  Anomaly     -1.6c.

My Annual                 5.0c.  Anomaly     -0.7c

Is a downward adjustment likely?

 

Is a downward adjustment likely?

 

Hopefully!

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Is a downward adjustment likely?

  Hopefully not! 

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For those already thinking about April... the 12z GFS op run has the CET 2.5*C below the LTA for the first 11 days of the month. Ouch.

ECM's 12z op is not far off setting things up for a similar outcome but it looks like what would usually be a spoiler shortwave near Svalbard would actually be our savior... unless of course you're keen on spring taking as long to arrive as possible 

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Met Office Hadley.    6.1c.      Anomaly     0.6c.   Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                5.78c.     Anomaly     -0.38c.

N-W                       6.41c.     Anomaly     0.12c.

Mount Sorrel           6.2c.

My Mean                 6.1c.      Anomaly     -1.5c. 

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For those already thinking about April... the 12z GFS op run has the CET 2.5*C below the LTA for the first 11 days of the month. Ouch.

ECM's 12z op is not far off setting things up for a similar outcome but it looks like what would usually be a spoiler shortwave near Svalbard would actually be our savior... unless of course you're keen on spring taking as long to arrive as possible 

I really don't mind if Spring arrives late, like it did last year, providing we get a good summer like we did last year. 

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I really don't mind if Spring arrives late, like it did last year, providing we get a good summer like we did last year. 

Are you thinking of 2013? Last year had a pretty warm March in these parts, or did that not extend beyond the far south?

 

The latest GFS op run is another chilly one, CET estimate just over 2*C below the LTA for 1st-12th April.

The 06z was much warmer but I have only been computing 00z and 12z runs into my model based projections so at the moment the overall mean of runs plus an estimate of near average conditions for the remainder of the month produces an estimate about half a degree below the LTA for April as a whole.

I do wonder if this scientific approach will ever gain much ground on those using gut instinct or other forecasting methods this year 

For what it's worth, my instinct last month was for it to be near average like the previous two... but to be honest I wasn't confident in any particular outcome, despite the models insisting on a warm month. As always, it comes down to pot luck in the end.

Confidence is low again for this month, with ECM not as keen as GFS on setting up extensive high latitude blocking with frequent imports of cold air for the UK. That 06z GFS op run also rings alarm bells - it wouldn't take much of a shift in the position of the blocking highs for a very different outcome as far as the CET is concerned!

 

I'm going to PM an early CET prediction to GW in a moment, as I'm heading to the Brecon Beacons for a hiking trip tomorrow (great timing I know...!) and who knows, the internet could play hide and seek.

Come on 2015, pick yourself up and do something interesting, preferably with warm sun and a few thunderstorms for good measure! 

 

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Are you thinking of 2013? Last year had a pretty warm March in these parts, or did that not extend beyond the far south?

The latest GFS op run is another chilly one, CET estimate just over 2*C below the LTA for 1st-12th April.

The 06z was much warmer but I have only been computing 00z and 12z runs into my model based projections so at the moment the overall mean of runs plus an estimate of near average conditions for the remainder of the month produces an estimate about half a degree below the LTA for April as a whole.

I do wonder if this scientific approach will ever gain much ground on those using gut instinct or other forecasting methods this year 

For what it's worth, my instinct last month was for it to be near average like the previous two... but to be honest I wasn't confident in any particular outcome, despite the models insisting on a warm month. As always, it comes down to pot luck in the end.

Confidence is low again for this month, with ECM not as keen as GFS on setting up extensive high latitude blocking with frequent imports of cold air for the UK. That 06z GFS op run also rings alarm bells - it wouldn't take much of a shift in the position of the blocking highs for a very different outcome as far as the CET is concerned!

I'm going to PM an early CET prediction to GW in a moment, as I'm heading to the Brecon Beacons for a hiking trip tomorrow (great timing I know...!) and who knows, the internet could play hide and seek.

Come on 2015, pick yourself up and do something interesting, preferably with warm sun and a few thunderstorms for good measure! 

Wasn't it last year that everyone was saying how late the Spring growth was?  Or was it the year before?    I remember the early months of 2014 as nothing special weatherwise, but then age does play with the memory. 

Enjoy the Brecon Beacons and I do hope you get some interesting weather! 

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Met Office Hadley     6.1c.      Anomaly     0.6c.  Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                 5.85c.    Anomaly     -0.31c.

N-W                        6.42c.    Anomaly      0.13c.

Mount Sorrel            6.2c.

My Mean                  6.2c.      Anomaly     -1.4c. 

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Hurrah - scored a little internet time.

A remarkable GFS 12z which produces a CET estimate close to 3*C below normal to the 7th, only for a massive turnaround to take place, a sensationally warm lower-res recovering the CET so much that by 13th April the estimate is about half a degree above the LTA!

That's the kind of interesting variation in weather that I would like to see 

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Hurrah - scored a little internet time.

A remarkable GFS 12z which produces a CET estimate close to 3*C below normal to the 7th, only for a massive turnaround to take place, a sensationally warm lower-res recovering the CET so much that by 13th April the estimate is about half a degree above the LTA!

That's the kind of interesting variation in weather that I would like to see 

That's excellent - someone flagged up an F1 chart showing 20C and 21C on April 11th.

That would be great.

 

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