I really don't mind if Spring arrives late, like it did last year, providing we get a good summer like we did last year.
Are you thinking of 2013? Last year had a pretty warm March in these parts, or did that not extend beyond the far south?
The latest GFS op run is another chilly one, CET estimate just over 2*C below the LTA for 1st-12th April.
The 06z was much warmer but I have only been computing 00z and 12z runs into my model based projections so at the moment the overall mean of runs plus an estimate of near average conditions for the remainder of the month produces an estimate about half a degree below the LTA for April as a whole.
I do wonder if this scientific approach will ever gain much ground on those using gut instinct or other forecasting methods this year
For what it's worth, my instinct last month was for it to be near average like the previous two... but to be honest I wasn't confident in any particular outcome, despite the models insisting on a warm month. As always, it comes down to pot luck in the end.
Confidence is low again for this month, with ECM not as keen as GFS on setting up extensive high latitude blocking with frequent imports of cold air for the UK. That 06z GFS op run also rings alarm bells - it wouldn't take much of a shift in the position of the blocking highs for a very different outcome as far as the CET is concerned!
I'm going to PM an early CET prediction to GW in a moment, as I'm heading to the Brecon Beacons for a hiking trip tomorrow (great timing I know...!) and who knows, the internet could play hide and seek.
Come on 2015, pick yourself up and do something interesting, preferably with warm sun and a few thunderstorms for good measure!
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