Thanks Caz

Met office  Hadley    5.02c.     Anomaly     0.7c    Provisional   To    5th March  ......

Metcheck                 5.07c.    Anomaly     -1.09c.

N-W                        5.45c.    Anomaly     -0.86c.

My Mean                  5.0c.     Anomaly      -2.6c.

Met Office Hadley       5.7c.    Anomaly    1.1c.     Provisional  to    6th.

Metcheck                   5.73c.  Anomaly   -0.43c. 

N-W                            5.96c.   Anomaly   -0.35c.

My   Mean                 5.4c.     Anomaly-2.2c.

Met Office Hadley       5.7c.    Anomaly    1.1c.     Provisional  to    6th.

Metcheck                   5.73c.  Anomaly   -0.43c. 

N-W                            5.96c.   Anomaly   -0.35c.

My   Mean                 5.4c.     Anomaly-2.2c.

The CET is shooting up at the moment due to the very warm weather. It will level off in the next few days and may then drift gradually down as we move through the middle part of the month.

At present I am expecting the CET to still be slightly above average by 21 March.

Here is the list of March predictions

Thank you GW for the chart.. Lots of 6c + in there.

I'm in trouble then. I must have been half asleep when I made my prediction.

Met Office Hadley      6.4c.      Anomaly     1.7c.     Provisional to  7th.

Metcheck                  6.11c.     Anomaly      -0.05c.

N-W                          6.56c       Anomaly      0.27c.

My  Mean                  6.0c.      Anomaly       -1.6c.

The boundary between the cooler air and milder air for much of next week has shifted southeast quite a bit on the GFS runs over the past two days... enough to change the likely CET trend from upward to downward.

That's before the risk of it turning chillier still from the east by next weekend. Until recently, GFS and CFS were being persistent in placing the high pressure far enough SE to bring more of a mild westerly regime to our shores, with estimates of the CET using raw model data were coming in at somewhere over 7*C for 1st-15th March.

This now looks like being between a half and a whole degree too high. This error is mitigated to some extent by the fact that GFS projected temperatures that proved to be a degree or so too low for the first few days of the month.

I must admit, it was more fun playing this game using gut instinct than this scientific approach... but I remain interested in seeing just how well (or poorly) model-based CET projections will fare this year.

I haven't a clue with weather science and my guesses are always gut instinct, which this month was for a cool start, average middle and warmer ending.  It's still too early to forecast anything near the end of the month but it would be interesting to see how close the models do get it. 

I do wonder how many people's guesses are influenced by the weather at the time of their entries.  I think mine are! 

Met Office Hadley     6.7c.     Anomaly     1.9c.     Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                 5.93c.   Anomaly    -0.23c.

N-W                        6.71c.   Anomaly    0.42c.

My Mean                  6.2c.     Anomaly   -1.47c.

Met Office Hadley     6.7c.     Anomaly     1.9c.     Provisional to 8th.

From 5.0 to 6.7 in 3 days. What was I thinking...?

Hopefully the upcoming cooler period will be quite lengthy to keep the CET suppressed - ideally below 6c (best I can hope for, really)

So much for my 'gut feeling' cool start.  I just hope the upcoming cooler spell and my 'gut feeling' warm end, balance themselves out a bit.   

Met Office Hadley         6.5c         Anomaly        1.6c.   Provisional to    9th.

Metcheck                     6.08c.      Anomaly       -0.08c.

N-W                            6.66c.       Anomaly        0.37c.

Mount  Sorrel               6.3c.

My  Mean                     6.2c.         Anomaly       -1.4c.

Even though it's still lower than my guess, it's still a little to high for comfort and I'm not convinced we'll get a cold spell that will make much difference.  I think it will fall again tomorrow but will then hold fairly steady for a few days before making a gentle rise. 

It isn't easy typing with your fingers crossed! 

Met Office Hadley      6.4c.      Anomaly      1.5c.      Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                  5.97c.     Anomaly    -0.19c.

N-W                         6.63c.     Anomaly      0.34c.

Mount Sorrel             5.9c.      Anomaly       0.4c.

My   Mean                 6.2c.      Anomaly      -1.4c.

My Annual                 5.0c.      Anomaly      -0.7c.    

Met Office Hadley    6.4c.   Anomaly    1.4c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                6.21c. Anomaly   -0.05c.   

N-W                       6.7c.  Anomaly     0.42c.

Mount Sorrel           6.6c.  Anomaly     0.3c.

My Mean                 6.3c.  Anomaly   -1.3c.  

My Annual               5.1c.  Anomaly   -0.6c. 

Met Office Hadley         6.6c.    Anomaly    1.5c.

Metcheck                     6.33c.  Anomaly    0.17c.

N-W                            6.95c   Anomaly    0.66c.

Mount Sorrel                6.7c.    Anomaly    0.4c.

My Mean                      6.6c.    Anomaly   -1.0c.

My Annual                    5.1c.   Anomaly   -0.6c.    

Oh my goodness!  It's on its way up again already.  If it carries on like this we'll all have pitched too low.