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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 25 February 2015 22:48:36(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,135

After record breaking warmth in 2014 it looks like winter 2014/15 will have seen the CET in all three months coming in within 0.2C of the 1971-2000 mean. So have we moved back to a phase of more average temperatures? Time will tell.

Please post your March CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Saturday evening (28th). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 March.

March historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

There have been very few cold March's in recent years. 2013 was of course a major exception with a CET of just 2.7C. Other cold years were 1995,1996, 2001 and 2006. However, 11 of the past 18 years have seen a March CET of 7C or more, including last year. 

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 6.3C
1981-2010: 6.6C
1995-2014: 6.6C

Here is a chart of the March CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
850s are below average to start the month but return to average towards the end of the first week - albeit with huge scatter. T2m temperatures look average at best. Certainly nothing warm in the runs as at 25 Feb.

ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
De Bilt ECM data looks somewhat below average although there are plenty of milder runs as well

Weatheronline
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead
No recent forecast issued

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/5/h/A3_plots-temp-MAM.PDF

Latest contingency planners forecast for March suggests a slight bias towards above average temperatures. Interestingly Spring as a whole looks very close to average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
Seems to contradict the contingency planners forecast somewhat. An average first 10 days but then potentially a trend towards more below average conditions at times.

Pattern matching (just for fun)

So January and February have been seen temperatures close to average and not far off 4C in both months. If we look back into the archives to find similar years since 1900 with a January and February CET both within 0.5C of 4C there are 12 obvious matches. The most recent of these being 2003 and 2006.

Of those 12 matches 6 had a cold or very cold March CET - these years being 1915, 1934, 1951, 1962, 1971 and 2006

Two years saw a very warm March - 1927 and 2003 with the other year being close to average - 1973.

So the pattern matching suggests a two in three chance of a potentially very cold March.

The model output is all over the place at the moment. Last night I calculated a fairly average start to March with the CET around 6C by the 10th. Tonight the output is much colder with a predicted CET of 4.9C by the 11th. The first day of the month will be very warm but after that it looks anything but warm. Don't be surprised if this changes though over the next few days.

Personally I have been saying since Autumn that I thought there was a good chance of a cold March this year. I still think that is the most likely outcome although I hope I am wrong because I am ready for some warm Spring weather. 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 10 April 2015 09:47:44(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline Essan  
#2 Posted : 26 February 2015 12:39:40(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 29,921
Antarctica
Location: Albion

I'll kick it off with 6.7c

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.

Weather & Earth Science News

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Offline Roonie  
#3 Posted : 26 February 2015 14:13:47(UTC)
Roonie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,301
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

6.3 please

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline ARTzeman  
#4 Posted : 26 February 2015 15:30:19(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,905
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

For me I am going for 6.89c. Thank you...laughing

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline moomin75  
#5 Posted : 26 February 2015 15:48:04(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,056

Bang on the average please 6.6C.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Deep Powder  
#6 Posted : 26 February 2015 16:24:48(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,433
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

5.8c for me please!

Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#7 Posted : 26 February 2015 19:21:06(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,609
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

5.95 please

 

 

Offline kendalian  
#8 Posted : 26 February 2015 19:21:47(UTC)
kendalian

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/12/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74

6.4C for me please
Offline Dougie  
#9 Posted : 26 February 2015 19:28:53(UTC)
Dougie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

6.6°c please.

Ha'way the lads
Offline ozone_aurora  
#10 Posted : 26 February 2015 20:21:39(UTC)
ozone_aurora

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 523
Location: Lowestoft

5.5 C for me, please.

Offline cowman  
#11 Posted : 26 February 2015 21:11:57(UTC)
cowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/02/2013(UTC)
Posts: 904
Man
United Kingdom
Location: uttoxeter

6.8c for me please GW.Thanks for this great comp, and all the work you put in to it.
Offline Jonesy  
#12 Posted : 26 February 2015 23:27:25(UTC)
Jonesy

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/07/2008(UTC)
Posts: 4,000
Man
Location: Medway

Will go in early in case I forget over the weekend :)

5.9 Please

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .

Offline domma  
#13 Posted : 26 February 2015 23:33:47(UTC)
domma

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 10,942
Man
Location: Kirkham, North Yorkshire

6.0c for me thanks

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gary

Online Sussex snow magnet  
#14 Posted : 27 February 2015 04:13:22(UTC)
Sussex snow magnet

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 163
Man
Location: Sussex

6.1 for me please
Offline roger63  
#15 Posted : 27 February 2015 08:54:47(UTC)
roger63

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,281
Man
Location: Winchester,Hampshire

6.0 C for me please.
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#16 Posted : 27 February 2015 10:54:31(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,781
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I'll go for it now in case I forget this weekend.

I'll go for 6C

 

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline Tractor Boy  
#17 Posted : 27 February 2015 11:36:48(UTC)
Tractor Boy

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/07/2006(UTC)
Posts: 264

6.6C please

Dave

Cropton, North York Moors

Offline wallaw  
#18 Posted : 27 February 2015 12:44:17(UTC)
wallaw

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,091
Man
Location: Stockton-on-Tees

7.3 for me please, coolish start, red hot (comparatively speaking) end

Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

Edicius81  
#19 Posted : 27 February 2015 14:00:42(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

I have little clue this month. So random stab, let's go 6.27c
Offline Saint Snow  
#20 Posted : 27 February 2015 14:21:06(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 43,623
Man
Location: St Helens

Gut instinct is sub-5c, but I'll temper this and go with 5.3c

 

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

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