It's been a strange feeling winter. It doesn't feel like it has been wintry even though I have seen more frosts than last winter thus far and the field behind me was snow covered from Boxing Day night to New Year's Eve, the longest period such period since December 2010

Please could someone direct me to a solar monitoring website?  There was an excellent solar cycle thread in the now non-existent climate forum on TWO and I don't know if there is a thread any more.

I'm thinking that solar activity might still be high as we are just past the peak of this current cycle, and this might be contributing to our relatively mild winter (although it is colder than last year's mild fest).

Thank you

David

Northallerton

I wonder whether people felt the same in 1939-40, 1981-2 and 1990-1? They all occurred just after the peak of a solar cycle.

1947 was just three months before the peak.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles

I do know what you mean though. There's a fair list of "Hale" winters to choose from too. Just thought I'd throw those examples out there.

The 5 great winters of the 20th century (1916-17, 1928-29, 1939-40, 1962-63, 1978-79) , 3 of them occurred near a solar maxima.

I don't know what has happened to me recently but my scepticism has deepened. People are blaming solar activity for this winter not delivering so far. Solar activity is lower than a number of recent peaks. Low solar activity alone doesn't explain the great winters above.

We are told sudden stratospheric warming events increases the chance of northerly blocking and cold episodes.

I go along with that but it doesn't explain a number of cold outbreaks. Where was the SSW that resulted in late Nov-Dec 2010? The coldest part of winter 1976-77 occurred before the SSW. 

I would say  that a SSW gives you a chance of breaking out of a weather pattern but if you are in a cold pattern and you want to maintain it, would you want a SSW to occur?

Then there is OPI and SAI. It seems that things are not going according to plan here. The trouble seems to be the low pressure anomaly over the Barents-Kara region. 

NAO, AO, OPI, SAI, PDO, AMO, SSW, MWW, ENSO.....it's an alphabet soup of complexities.

Please could someone direct me to a solar monitoring website?  There was an excellent solar cycle thread in the now non-existent climate forum on TWO and I don't know if there is a thread any more.

I'm thinking that solar activity might still be high as we are just past the peak of this current cycle, and this might be contributing to our relatively mild winter (although it is colder than last year's mild fest).

Thank you

David

Northallerton

Current Solar Data: NOAA data 

Maybe handy.

 

Current Solar Data: NOAA data 

Maybe handy.

SpaceWeather.com

Solarham.net

Solarmonitor.org

tesilebeder.ru

All have solar charts.

A sub 2C day today around here - could be one of the coldest maxima of the year! 

Does anyone remember the year when Winter was poor for snow & cold but then as soon as early spring arrived we got a fair bit of snow in the South?

What odds on that happening again this year 

Does anyone remember the year when Winter was poor for snow & cold but then as soon as early spring arrived we got a fair bit of snow in the South?

What odds on that happening again this year 

 

Was that 2008 when we got a heavy fall in Easter?

I am actually becoming quite worried that the coldest patterns will be developing later in February and persisting through March this year, similar to 2013.

March 2013 was interesting as a case study but delivered nothing more than a bit of wet snow that melted on contact with the ground. The impact on SSTs then made warm conditions here in the far south rather restricted until late June that year. I also think they held back July 2013 a bit and prevented it from being close to 2006 in terms of the heat... admittedly a silver lining for those who don't fare well in such conditions.

 

Was that 2008 when we got a heavy fall in Easter?

 

I am actually becoming quite worried that the coldest patterns will be developing later in February and persisting through March this year, similar to 2013.

March 2013 was interesting as a case study but delivered nothing more than a bit of wet snow that melted on contact with the ground. The impact on SSTs then made warm conditions here in the far south rather restricted until late June that year. I also think they held back July 2013 a bit and prevented it from being close to 2006 in terms of the heat... admittedly a silver lining for those who don't fare well in such conditions.

If the cold comes towards the end of Feb and persist through March then, IMO, all well and good.  If nothing else, it will potentially be the first period (of more than a few days) of colder than average conditions since August (or possibly earlier). If the cold does come, it might hopefully be the beginning of a cooler few months/year, although I'm probably stretching my imagination a bit too much here!!

David

Northallerton

 

Was that 2008 when we got a heavy fall in Easter?

 

I think your right stormchaser and from memory it was a Sunday night, I remember sitting in my lounge and noticing something out the window, it took a good minute or so to sink in that it was actually snowing, I can't remember the actual 2007/2008 Winter though so not sure if the April (Sring) snowfall was all we had??

With the charts out to mid-Jan showing nothing cold & snowy, that's half of winter gone with no decent cold spell*

Another winter turning into a dud?

* the post-Xmas spell here gave a snowfall that was half-melted by drizzle/rain afterwards, followed by a few frosts - distinctly underwhelming

 

I think your right stormchaser and from memory it was a Sunday night, I remember sitting in my lounge and noticing something out the window, it took a good minute or so to sink in that it was actually snowing, I can't remember the actual 2007/2008 Winter though so not sure if the April (Sring) snowfall was all we had??

Another overnight snowfall of an inch on 6/7th April, a Sunday night again.

We also had some snow showers on the evening of 1st February. The winter overall was fairly mild here.

We had an inch of snow on Easter Sunday night, 23rd  March 2008.

Another overnight snowfall of an inch on 6/7th April, a Sunday night again.

We also had some snow showers on the evening of 1st February. The winter overall was fairly mild here.

Had about 4 inches of snow here that night, was quite unexpected as it wasn't forecasted for more than a cm or so. We've had a few snowy March's over the past 10 years or so, most notably 2006, 2008, 2013. Can we get another one? I wouldn't bet against it. It would seem early Spring is more favourable to get cold to our shores as the Atlantic traditionally settles down. 

 

Had about 4 inches of snow here that night, was quite unexpected as it wasn't forecasted for more than a cm or so. We've had a few snowy March's over the past 10 years or so, most notably 2006, 2008, 2013. Can we get another one? I wouldn't bet against it. It would seem early Spring is more favourable to get cold to our shores as the Atlantic traditionally settles down. 

March has long been snowier than December for many areas and I think that trend has intensified over a long term average of 30 years.

Just had Thunder Snow with superb fork lighting over Nunthorpe Middlesbrough! One very happy weather geek!

Kevin, by reading your posts with your index is a good symptom...correct?

Sorry, I don't follow what you mean by a good symptom?