Please send your predictions to me via PM this month and do not post directly into the thread. This is to avoid tactical predictions as we approach the end of this year's competition.

Yet another very warm month in October with record breaking conditions likely on the 31st. However, there are signs of a significant change as we move into November with temperatures returning back towards average although still probably slightly above where we should be. 

The record CET year is still very much on track. As at the end of October the CET for the year as a whole will be the warmest on record.

The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Friday evening (31st). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 November (Sunday evening).

November historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

A real mixed bag on Novembers in recent years. Last year was quite cool with 6.2C and 2010 was also cool with 5.2C. However, 2011 saw 9.6C and 2009 8.7C.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 6.9C
1981-2010: 7.1C
1994-2013: 7.5C

Here is a chart of the November CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average.

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
Temperatures look fairly close to average.

ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
Also looking fairly average for the start of November.

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?tab=map&map=SignificantWeather&locId=352409
The narrative suggests that overall temperatures will not be too far from average.

Pattern matching (just for fun)
Looking back at last month I concluded with this comment which was pretty close to what actually happened.

"on balance I favour a warm or very warm October with only about a 15% chance of a colder than average October."  

So lets look ahead to November.

If we consider years since 1900 where the combined Sept / Oct CET has been 13.3C or more we see that 3 years have gone on to see a cold November with the coldest year being 4.6C in 1921 with 5.4C in 1969. 4 of the 5 most recent years that match the pattern saw a warm November. There were 2 other years close to average.

If we now only consider years where both September and October were more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean and the combined CET was more than 13.3C there are 5 matches. 2 years saw a very warm November being 2006 and 2011, 2 years were average and one (2005) was somewhat below average.

If we also consider years with a cold August then 2011 is really the only decent match and a very close match it is too. That year saw a very warm November indeed with 9.6C.

If we just look at years where the October CET exceeded 12C then several Novembers were a little or a lot above average (5) but an equal number (5) were cooler than average.

So no clear signal really this month. Almost an equal chance of a colder or warmer than average but again a relatively small chance of something close to average. I would say 45% chance of a warm month, 40% chance of a cold month and 15% chance of a close to average month.

From a pure pattern matching position you would go for a warm month based on the strong similarities to 2011 but that would be overly simplistic.

You may have seen my post on Gavin P's latest winter update. To my mind a number of variables other than temperature show a strong correlation to 2009 which also saw a warm September and October and a very warm November.

So on balance I would be inclined to go for another significantly above average month in November.

Latest forecast November CET tracker

After a warm start temperatures are currently expected to trend close to average. However the warm start may be enough to see the overall CET still 1C above average by the 11th.

 

Pm sent.. For a place at the bottom

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Reminder : Today is last day for penalty free prediction (to be sent by PM)

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I only have 37 predictions so far. Plenty more to come hopefully.

The more the merrier we shall be... Beats looking at grey skies any day... Do post watchers...

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Expecting some high Anomalies for a few days...    There are  a couple sites reporting  of 7.12c and  7.85c.. Give it another day or so then it will

be normal posting...  

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 Not had predictions from any of those mentioned below as yet. Still time to get your predictions in.  

Charmhills

Deep Powder

Dingle Rob

garybournemouth

Hungry Tiger

Quantum

scillydave

Shez5690

sussex snow magnet

Tractor Boy

Twister

warrenb

 

Also Martyn and vince will drop out of the competition entirely this month if they don't make a prediction as they have both missed the last two months.

CET mean today of 13.4C by my calculations.

Warmest November mean since 3 Nov 2011.

Equal 23rd warmest November mean since records began.

Met Office Hadley    13.2c.     Anomaly       4.1c.   Provisional  to  1st.

Metcheck                13.55c.   Anomaly       6.63c

N-W                       14.22c    Anomaly       7.33c.

Mount Sorrel           14.16c.   Anomaly       7.26c.

My   Mean               13.3c     Anomaly        6.9c.

 

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Met Office Hadley    13.0c.   Anomaly    4.0c.   Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                12.05c. Anomaly    5.13c.

N-W                       13.33c. Anomaly    6.44c.

Mount  Sorrel          12.60c. Anomaly    5.70c.

My   Mean               12.7c.  Anomaly    6.3c.

 

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So here are the predictions for November. No surprise that nearly everyone is going for above average temperatures. But will this turn out to be correct? We could be in for a bit of a mixed bag in terms of temperatures this month with some cold and warmth at various times.

Just sent my CET forecast in. I'll lose a bit on that.

I was doing something wrong on the PM mail . I sent the original in on Nov 1st.

Talk about feel daft :-)

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Met Office Hadley        11.7c.    Anomaly    3.0c.    Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                    10.41c.  Anomaly    3.49c.

N-W                           11.64c.  Anomaly    4.75c.

Mount Sorrel               10.81c.  Anomaly    3.91c.

My  Mean                    11.2c.   Anomaly     5.2c.

 

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Met Office Hadley    10.3c.     Anomaly      1.9c.  Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                 9.45c.    Anomaly      2.53c.

N-W                       10.15c.   Anomaly      2.82c.

Mount   Sorrel           9.72c    Anomaly      2.82c.

My Mean                   9.8c.     Anomaly      3.4c.

     

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Tomorrow will be a very chilly day but then Friday looks much warmer. Saturday to Monday look average but from next Tuesday onwards it does look like we will return to a spell of much milder weather, largely due to very high overnight minimums.

Currently the output suggests a CET of 8.89C by the 19th which is 1.3C above average. So despite the current cooler spell we could be shaping up for yet another very warm month. Of course if it turns colder during the final 10 days then we could slip back towards average again.

Met Office Hadley    9.7c.    Anomaly      1.4c.    Provisional  to  5th.

Metcheck                8.61c.  Anomaly       1.69c.

N-W                       9.29c.  Anomaly       2.4c.

Mount   Sorrel         8.71.   Anomaly       1.81c.

My  Mean                9.1c.   Anomaly       2.7c.

 

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Early days yet but after a chilly 24 hours we are on 7.3C which is still +1.2C

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Met Office Hadley     9.1c.     Anomaly     1.0c.   Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                 8.89c.   Anomaly      1.97c.

N-W                        9.02c.   Anomaly       2.12c.

Mount    Sorrel         8.91c.   Anomaly       2.01c.

My  Mean                 9.0c.    Anomaly        2.6c.             

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Met Office Hadley     9.1c.    Anomaly    1.0c.     Provisional  to  7th.

Metcheck                 8.71c.  Anomaly    1.79c.

N-W                        9.16c.  Anomaly    2.27c.

Mount  Sorrel           8.77c.  Anomaly    1.87c.

My  Mean                 9.0c.   Anomaly     2.6c.

 

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The words 'Rodney you plonker' spring to mind in relation to my CET guess for November........what was I thinking going for 6c. November willl need a massive cool off to get that level.....oh well all good fun 😉

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