Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,301  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
|
Running at 12.4c. Anomaly 6.7c. |
Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,529  Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
|
The annual CET at 31 Oct stands (provisionally) at 11.76C. This is the highest reading ever at 31 October. Previous highest was 1990 with 11.68C. The only other time the annual CET reached 11.76C on any date was 22 October 1990. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,529 Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
|
Yet another very month warm in October with an anomaly of over 2C - the second month to achieve that this year. The running CET mean for the year now stands at 11.77C an all time record high for any date in the year.
SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,529 Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
|
You can now start to get a real sense of how warm this year has been and why I started the chart below a couple of months ago. The CET record is on course to be blown away this year. Based on current output the annual CET mean is forecast to be at 11.53C by 28 November. The current record high as at 28 Nov is 11.34C in 1995. So we are likely to be about 0.2C above the record high. We are still on course to finish the year above 11C but of course a cold December could still change things considerably. SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,122
Location: Brockley
|
Target for rest of year now -0.06C. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,122
Location: Brockley
|
And now -0.18C after Nov CET rose again to 9.2C. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,529 Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
|
Current estimate is 11.47C at 30 November which is 0.13C above the current record for 30 Nov being 11.33C in 1995. If the November CET comes in at 8.5C then we would only need a December CET of 4.4C to just finish ahead of 2006 and see the highest annual CET ever. To get a CET of exactly 11C for 2014 we would need a December CET of 5.9C. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,562
Location: Bournemouth
|
Originally Posted by: Global Warming  Current estimate is 11.47C at 30 November which is 0.13C above the current record for 30 Nov being 11.33C in 1995. If the November CET comes in at 8.5C then we would only need a December CET of 4.4C to just finish ahead of 2006 and see the highest annual CET ever. To get a CET of exactly 11C for 2014 we would need a December CET of 5.9C. Thanks GW! A December cet of say 6c to be sure,is more than possible and the way this year has been,its probable. It would be incredible if we see 2014 record the first ever 11c cet for a year.Even you coldies must be keeping your fingers crossed for this to happen,followed by a Siberian express in January. I for one am hoping the atlantic continues to dominate during December with constant sw winds. Just for comparison, imby,the 2014 mean to date is a whopping 13.6c
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,797
Location: Dundee
|
Quote "Even you coldies must be keeping your
fingers crossed for this to happen,followed by a Siberian express in January".
I did predict a very warm year [from a gut feeling] but I would happily be proved wrong if we get another Dec 2010. Can't see it happening though!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 35,382
|
Originally Posted by: Global Warming Current estimate is 11.47C at 30 November which is 0.13C above the current record for 30 Nov being 11.33C in 1995. If the November CET comes in at 8.5C then we would only need a December CET of 4.4C to just finish ahead of 2006 and see the highest annual CET ever. To get a CET of exactly 11C for 2014 we would need a December CET of 5.9C. Thanks GW. Interesting we're close to this point in 1995. Of course we missed out on the annual record in 1995 due to that cold December and the CET coming out around 2c. Wonder if history could repeat this year?  |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,529 Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
|
Just one month to and what a year it has been. 10 months that have been way above average and one month well below. Overall the CET is now 0.16C higher than in any other year up to 30 November. Only a December more than 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean will prevent us from setting a new CET record in 2014.
SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,122
Location: Brockley
|
BBC article today giving us a 75% chance of beating the annual CET record: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30304611 They are getting understandably a bit confused between "the UK" (see title of article) and Central England. It would be interesting to know how the UK temperature (and the E&W) is doing compared with the record. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,122
Location: Brockley
|
The record now looks like a dead cert. I expect the Dec CET will come in somewhere in the 5s. Can we hit 11C? I doubt it. I recall that would need a Dec value of 5.9C which looks ambitious.
If it weren't for August we'd have smashed 11C. Still, leaves something to aim for in future years. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,529 Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
|
The 11C annual CET is still a possibility. We actually only need the December CET to finish at 5.7C to hit the 11C mark. At the moment I am expecting us to finish a little lower than this but it all depends on what happens in the last week of the month. We can now be virtually certain that 2014 will be the warmest year on record in the CET area. We would need every day between now and the end of the year to have a mean temperature of less than 2.5C in order not to break the record. This is simply not going to happen - particularly given the next 3 days are likely to be very mild. The question is can we stay above 11C. My gut feeling at this point is we will just miss out but that could change. SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
|
Nice chart GW, sums things up nicely! Are we also currently having the warmest 12 month period in the CET record?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,529 Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
|
Originally Posted by: Stu N Nice chart GW, sums things up nicely! Are we also currently having the warmest 12 month period in the CET record? Not quite no. We are currently in 10th place at the end of November. Looking at the position at month end rather than on a daily basis the highest rolling 12 month CET mean figures are as follows (this covers all rolling 12 month periods above 11C): Apr 2007 11.63C
May 2007 11.60C
Jun 2007 11.53C
Mar 2007 11.42C
Feb 2007 11.23C
Jul 2007 11.16C
Aug 2007 11.10C
Oct 1995 11.07C
Jan 2007 11.05C
Nov 2014 11.02C SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
|
Thanks! I tried downloading the data and doing that myself but the format is a bit ridiculous and I couldn't quite figure out how to sort the data  We really are quite a lot short of the rolling 12-month record then. But because of the arbitrary date on which we start our year, this will get more headlines and fanfare than that record in 2007!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,562
Location: Bournemouth
|
Its now looking an odds on certainty that 2014 will be the warmest year in the cet record Shame August was such a let down otherwise we`d be looking at the first 11c+ year
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,122
Location: Brockley
|
Still a statistical possibility this could be the coldest year on record. Just need the rest of the year anomaly to be -251.83C. Not yet below absolute zero. To ensure we win the warmest year the Hadley Centre needs it to be warmer than -7.89 below average (although we think the Dec number so far is a bit inflated). http://www.metoffice.gov...adcet/cet_info_mean.html |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,301 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
|
My own back yard came in at 11.5c. But it had a "Depart from norm" of 5.8c. Using Cumulus... |
Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.