After falling back in line with the 1971-2000 mean last Monday the CET has been rising again and will continue to do so today before levelling off and beginning a very slow fall until the end of the month.

By my calculations the CET moved back above 12C yesterday and could get as high as 12.25C today. Temperatures return to just above average during this week and may dip a little further by the end of the month.

At present I am estimating a final CET of 11.83C. However, it is still quite possible we could finish at 12C or above.

A final figure of 11.8C for October would result in the CET mean for the first 10 months of 2014 being the highest on record, exceeding the current record held by 1990.

The Autumn CET is tracking well above average but is only likely to be the joint 8th warmest on record for the first 2 months based on current output. 2005, 2006 and 2011 were all much warmer.

Looking at the bigger picture it now looks like 9 of the first 10 months of the year will have seen a CET more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. The only time we have previously had 9 months more than 0.5C above average in one year was in 2002. That record is likely to fall this year.

In many ways the temperature profile in recent months has looked very similar to both 2006 and 2011. Those are also the two warmest years on record overall. This year could well break the record. Both 2006/7 and 2011/12 saw remarkably warm periods between November and January with a CET of 7C or higher, more than 1.5C above the mean.

I therefore think there is a high probability of us seeing another exceptionally warm winter this year. Of course it could go the other way and I would certainly not rule that out. 2005 saw a remarkably warm September and October after an average August. The period from November 2005 to March 2006 was persistently cool although never especially cold.

The only time we have had two consecutive winters with a CET greater than 6C was of course 1988/9 and 1989/90. I have a feeling we could match that feat this winter.

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Thank you GW for your excellent analysis and projections for the cet for the remainder of 2014.

Looking at the forecast for the rest of October,apart from a very brief dip to average temperatures on Tuesday and wedenesday this week,the rest of the month looks above average and I rekon there is more than a good chance October will finish above 12c.

Agree with your prediction of a warm winter this year with the azores high being a dominant feature of the uk weather bringing mild sw and west winds keeping the cold bottled up in the artic.There are no signals anywhere remotely hinting at anything cold yet,like the rest of this year even periods of average temperatures have been short lived.

My current October mean stands at 13.2c,the last two days have seen mean temperatures of 17/18c,ridiculusly warm for mid october

Met Office Hadley      12.3c.    Anomaly    1.0c.     Provisional to  19th.

Metcheck                  12.11c.  Anomaly    1.60c.

N-W                        12.84c.   Anomaly    2.45c.  

Mount Sorrel            12.29c.  Anomaly    1.89c.

My   Mean               12.6c.    Anomaly     0.2c.

Met Office Hadley       12.3c.    Anomaly      1.0c.   Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                   12.12c   Anomaly      1.61c.

N-W                          12.85c.  Anomaly      2.46c.

Mount Sorrel              12.29c.  Anomaly      1.89c.

My  Mean                   12.6c.   Anomaly       0.2c.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Originally Posted by: Caz

A finishing CET of 11.8c would be just right for me. 

 

I'd see 11.8c as me half dodging a bullet! After being sure of my guess, the charts moved toward a much more warm outlook.

If it's any consolation, my guesses are just wild guesses and gut feeling, as opposed to me trying to make head or tail of the charts, though I suppose that's obvious given my position at the bottom of the table.  

Met Office Hadley     12.1c.      Anomaly     1.0c.  Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                 11.90c.    Anomaly     1.39c.

N-W                        12.65c.    Anomaly     2.26c.

Mount    Sorrel        12.06c.     Anomaly     1.66c.

My   Mean               12.4c.      Anomaly      0.0c.

Met Office Hadley    12.2c.   Anomaly  1.1c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                11.99c. Anomaly  1.48c.

N-W                       12.68c. Anomaly   2.29c.

Mount Sorrel           12.15c. Anomaly  1.75c.

My  Mean                12.4c.  Anomaly   0.0c.

Tomorrow will see temperatures close to average but after that the month ends on a very mild note.

It now looks like the CET will end up close to 12.3C which is almost 2C above the 1971-2000 average. What is remarkable is that is not at all unusual for October in recent years. Despite that very large anomaly October 2014 will be cooler than 2013, 2011, 2006, 2005 and 2001.

In fact the October CET mean for the 20 years 1995 - 2014 at 11.3C is 0.9C above the 1971-2000 mean of 10.4C. April also shows a 0.9C anomaly for the same period with February at 0.8C and September at 0.7C.

What is interesting is that the increase in mean temperatures in recent years is most notable in the late winter / early spring and also in early Autumn. During the summer and winter the rise is much lower (or even negative in the case of December).

The annual CET mean is now set to be at 11.76C at the end of October, easily the highest figure on record for the end of October. Indeed the annual CET has only ever hit 11.76C at any point once before which was on 22 October 1990.

The CET figures for August to October 2014 are remarkably similar to those of 2011. It will be really interesting to see what happens to temperatures over the rest of the year. There are plenty of reasons for thinking the very mild conditions will continue but there are also some pieces of evidence to suggest we may start to see some colder interludes before too long. Either way the rest of the year is going to be quite fascinating to follow.

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Edited by user 25 October 2014 07:13:38(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Fascinating stuff  GW,

I may use your excellent charts/graphs for a Blog post tomorrow if that's OK?

Of course Gavin. Feel free to do so. 

Met Office Hadley     12.2c.    Anomaly    1.2c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                 11.93c.  Anomaly    1.42c.

N-W                        12.71c.  Anomaly    2.32c.

Mount  Sorrel           12.10c.  Anomaly     1.70c.

My  Mean                 12.4c.   Anomaly     0.0c.