Met Office Hadley     12.2c.   Anomaly   1.2c.  Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                 11.92c.  Anomaly   1.41c.

N- W                       12.65c.  Anomaly   2.26c.

Mount Sorrel            12.09c.  Anomaly   1.69c.

My Mean                  12.4c.    Anomaly   0.0c.      

Bit of a disaster for me this month

The high minimums for the past couple of weeks has kept the CET up a level I'd not expected. Bugger.

I'm glad the nights of Tue-Wed and Wed-Thu aren't looking nearly as chilly as GFS was going for a few days ago - it means I'm in with a shot of finally being within 0.5*C of the CET, which given how down on luck I've been lately would be a nice change!

Still a bit of a close call though as a stalled frontal system looks to keep maximums in the 9-12*C range across the CET zone on Wednesday. I'm guessing the CET will end up a smidge below GW's estimate based on data on 24th October, as that was when the LP to the west was looking to be closer to our shores midweek, allowing Wednesday to hit the high teens.

Met Office Hadley    12.2c.   Anomaly  1.3c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                11.99c. Anomaly  1.48c.

N-W                       12.66c.  Anomaly  2.27c.

Mount Sorrel           12.15c. Anomaly   1.75c.

My Mean                 12.4c.   Anomaly  0.0c.

Met Office Hadley   12.3c.   Anomaly  1.4c. provisional to 27th.

Metcheck               12.05c. Anomaly  1.54c.

N-W                      12.74c. Anomaly  2.35c.

Mount Sorrel          12.21c. Anomaly  1.81c.

My  Mean               12.5c.  Anomaly   1.00c.

The CET now stands at 12.29C by my calculations.

Some big swings in temperature over the next few days. A chilly one tomorrow with the CET probably just below 10C (all relative of course - still above average for 29 Oct). However on Friday the CET could reach 15.8C which would easily be a date record.

Highest CET for 31 Oct at the moment is 14.5C from 1772. We will smash that figure.

I currently expect the CET to finish at 12.36C so just coming in below last year's figure of 12.5C.

I'd never really thought about how late in the year the peak annual CET is. I suppose it makes sense that it keeps rising until the CET dips below the annual mean, but at first it seems counterintuitive that the peak annual CET comes in mid autumn!

Nevertheless it looks like 2014 should have the latest ever peak, at least out of the  hot years pictured. Both 1989 and 2006 look like they peaked around November 1st.

IMBY

Back upto 8.01c following the mild weekend

Mean min 4.04c

Mean max 11.98c

Met Office Hadley    12.4c.    Anomaly  1.6c.  Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                12.06c.  Anomaly  1.55c.

N-W                       12.82c.  Anomaly  2.45c.

Mount   Sorrel         12.26c.  Anomaly  1.86c.

My   Mean               12.6c.   Anomaly   2.0c.

Met Office Hadley   12.3c.     Anomaly    1.6c.    Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck               12.6c.     Anomaly    1.55c.

 N- W                    12.75c    Anomaly    2.36c.

Mount Sorrel          12.23c.   Anomaly    1.83C.   

My    Mean             12.5c     Anomaly     1.0c.

Met Office Hadley  12.3c.    Anomaly   1.6c. Provisional to 30th

Metcheck              12.6c.    Anomaly   1.65c.

N-W                     12.83c.  Anomaly   2.44c.

Mount Sorrel         12.37c.  Anomaly   2.44c.

My  Mean              12.6c.   Anomaly    0.1c.

Average  of the 5    12.54c.  

Today's CET return of 16.8C (my provisional estimate) is obviously a record for 31 Oct.

More interestingly today was the equal 31st warmest in terms of mean temperature of ANY October day on record in the CET area going back to 1772 (out of over 7,500 October days). That is simply staggering when you consider that temperatures are generally much higher in the early part of October than at the end of the month.

No October day after the 11th has ever had a CET mean higher than the 16.8C recorded today.

The closest comparison I can find for such a high mean temperature this late in the month is 27th October 1888 which saw a mean of 16.7C.

The minimum CET today was 12.9C and the maximum 20.7C.

My final CET estimate for October is 12.39C which is 0.13C lower than last year's figure of 12.52C.

Here is a list of the warmest October days (in terms of mean temperature in the CET area) on record

The weather on 27 Oct 1888 saw a very active front across western areas give extremely heavy rain. Here are some rainfall stats for that day for Cumbria courtesy of CumbriaWeatherWiki http://www.cumbriaweatherforum.co.uk/wiki/index.php?title=1888

27th - Bowness, Fallbarrow Rain 2.45in, heaviest for 7 years - Ambelsid, Lesketh Howe heaviest rain for 20 years 4.08in (103mm) - Patterdale Hall. Rain 4.45in more than 1inch larger than any other fall in 24hrs during 10 years.

A deep area of low pressure to the west of the UK drew in some very warm air from the Azores. 850hPa temperatures were above 10C widely across England, Wales and Northern Ireland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1888/Rrea00118881027.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1888/Rrea00218881027.gif

The October CET came in officially at 12.48C so only 0.04C lower than last year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

Congratulations to Hungry Tiger who predicted 12.5C.

The CET for yesterday came in at 16.9C so a shade higher than my estimate.

The MetO have the finalized figure for October 2014 as 12.5 (rounded up from 12.48)

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

The October CET came in officially at 12.48C so only 0.04C lower than last year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

Congratulations to Hungry Tiger who predicted 12.5C.

The CET for yesterday came in at 16.9C so a shade higher than my estimate.

:-) 

Here are the charts for October. A fraction cooler than 2013 and (to one decimal) only the equal 6th warmest October since 1995.

But it was still the second month of 2014 to see an anomaly of greater than 2C.

Overall the Autumn CET is now 1.73C above the 1971-2000 mean. This is the equal 6th warmest first two months of Autumn on record.

The years with a warmer Sept / Oct combination than 2014 are in chronological order - 1795, 1949, 2005, 2006 and 2011.

The CET competition league table update for October will be published around 2200 tomorrow evening.

The CET competition league table update for October will be published around 2200 tomorrow evening.

I'm expecting to plummet down the table after that October 

Sorry for the delay. Ended up rather busy yesterday. Here are the tables for October.

No movement at the top but Darren S has had his lead cut a little.

Gusty is now the only person to have been inside the top 10 every month this year. His lowest position was 6th in January.

wallaw continues a steady climb up the table from 25th back in July up to 4th now.

The other big mover inside the top 10 this month is Hungry Tiger who was spot on with his October prediction. He moves up 12 places to 10th, although he was as high as 6th back in February.

Hot on his heels is lanky up 9 places to 11th.

The other big climber this month in top half of the table is Weathermac up 9 places to 17th, equalling his highest position from July.

After a disappointing year so far Stormchaser is finally starting to storm up the tables with a rise of 10 places this month.

Still all to play for though. December in particular has often been a notoriously difficult month to predict so expect further changes before the end of the year.