Here are the predictions for October. Welcome to Gavin823 who is taking part for the first time.

Please note that for the November and December predictions these will be made via PM to me as in previous years and not posted directly in this thread in order to avoid tactical predictions.

Thank you for the chart.. Too near the top of it with my figure...

Thank you for the chart.. Too near the top of it with my figure...

Yes thanks as ever GW for your hard work, much appreciated.

I know what you mean ART, I'm already feeling I've gone too high, and you're higher than me!

Met Office Hadley    14.0c.    Anomaly      1.8c. Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                13.29c.   Anomaly      2.78c.

N-W                       14.76c.   Anomaly      4.37c.

Mount Sorrel           13.66c.   Anomaly      3.26c.

My   Mean               14.8c.     Anomaly      2.4c.   

Met Office Hadley     13.2c.    Anomaly     1.0c.    Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                 12.80.    Anomaly     2.29c.

N-W                        13.85c.   Anomaly    3.46c.

Mount  Sorrel           13.09c.  Anomaly     2.69c.

My   Mean                14.1c.   Anomaly      0.4c

Met Office Hadley   13.0c.    Anomaly   0.7c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck              12.25c.   Anomaly   1.74c.

N-W                     13.36c.   Anomaly   2.96c.    

Mount   Sorrel       12.71c.   Anomaly   2.31c.

My  Mean             13.7c.     Anomaly   0.8c.

If we look at the 2014 CET we can see that it will track close to 1846 in the next few days and in fact is currently slightly above 1846 and in first place. By the middle of the month we will probably fall behind 1990 but could still just about be in second place.

Interesting chart, that. It really shows how 2006 made a surge for the record in the last few weeks of the year, from being well below others at this stage. And 1846 really let itself down at the end of the year!

Met Office Hadley    12.5c.    Anomaly     0.3c.   provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                11.83c.   Anomaly      1.32c.

N-W                       12.78c.   Anomaly      2.39c.

Mount   Sorrel         12.52c.   Anomaly     1.72c.

My    Mean              13.1c.    Anomaly      1.3c.

Met Office Hadley    12.5c.    Anomaly     0.3c.   provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                11.83c.   Anomaly      1.32c.

N-W                       12.78c.   Anomaly      2.39c.

Mount   Sorrel         12.52c.   Anomaly     1.72c.

My    Mean              13.1c.    Anomaly      1.3c.

Keep falling, please

Met Office Hadley   12.3c.   Anomaly    0.1c.  Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck               11.82c.  Anomaly   1.31c.

N--W                     12.62c   Anomaly   2.23c.

Mount Sorrel          12.05c.  Anomaly   1.65c.

My      Mean           12.9c.   Anomaly   0.5c.

CET might get a bit of a boost next week? Then again starting to think a cold snap in final week or so can't be ruled out...

CET might get a bit of a boost next week? Then again starting to think a cold snap in final week or so can't be ruled out...

Using the GFS 00z op run data, the CET wobbles about until next weekend without much overall change, the minimum value being around 11.9*C and the maximum 12.1*C.

Then, that warm plume of air kicks in, with two very warm days followed by two very mild days, lifting the CET to around 12.7*C. It then wobbles about again for the final few days of the run, giving 12.7*C to the 26th.

It's just a rough estimate using raw GFS data, but it suggests the potential for October to be yet another month in 2014 with a CET at least 1*C above average.

I reckon ECM would produce a longer run of very warm (by which I mean CET returns of around 16-18*C) days than GFS does. Fair to say, I would enjoy that 

Met Office Hadley  12.2c    Anomaly  01.c. Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck              11.75c  Anomaly  1.24c.

N- W                    12.6c.   Anomaly  2.21c.

Mount  Sorrel        11.93c  Anomaly  1.53c

My   Mean             12.9c.  Anomaly  0.5c.

CET might get a bit of a boost next week? Then again starting to think a cold snap in final week or so can't be ruled out...

Using the GFS 00z op run data, the CET wobbles about until next weekend without much overall change, the minimum value being around 11.9*C and the maximum 12.1*C.

Then, that warm plume of air kicks in, with two very warm days followed by two very mild days, lifting the CET to around 12.7*C. It then wobbles about again for the final few days of the run, giving 12.7*C to the 26th.

It's just a rough estimate using raw GFS data, but it suggests the potential for October to be yet another month in 2014 with a CET at least 1*C above average.

 

I reckon ECM would produce a longer run of very warm (by which I mean CET returns of around 16-18*C) days than GFS does. Fair to say, I would enjoy that 

Bugger.

10.1C (+0.3) here at 10 days in.

The CET should remain close to average over the next few days except on Sunday when it will be below average due to a cold night. The CET could fall to 11.63C by Wednesday which is only 0.26C above average for that point in October.

From next Thursday we could see a spell of much milder weather which would push the CET up significantly. As we move into the 4th week of October the CET may start to ease down again.

Current output suggests a CET of 12.1C by the 24th. So still on course for another month with a CET more than 1C above average. But plenty of uncertainty still given the mean CET for the month will actually only be slightly above average by the middle of next week. As ever at this time of the year the last week of the month will be critical for where we finally finish.

A lot depends on overnight cloud cover this month; clear nights dropping the temp to 5/6c makes a huge difference in the day's CET, when contrasted to more cloud cover that could keep the min at 10c or above.

Just looked at the Hadley 2014 CET update.

"The highest annual CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 above normal.To date (09th Oct )annual CET is 1.40 above normal.To beat the record the anomaly for the remainder of the of the year must be 1.17C"

Is the record within our grasp?