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Offline four  
#121 Posted : 22 September 2014 18:48:31(UTC)
four

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Location: N.Y.Moors

That all sounds like a different country, currently 12.6C mean here, plenty of cool nights and very few warm days - lots of fog and mist.

Offline Saint Snow  
#122 Posted : 23 September 2014 09:02:04(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post

There certainly hasn`t been many low minimums here,last night being the lowest at 7.5c,thats the lowest since around mid may. The mean temp here is a whopping 16.6c for this september so far.

It certainly has been one of the longest summers i can recall.

Today is the first time there has been a hint of autumn in the air.

 

We've only been down to a 6.4c min (a few in the 7.0-7.6c range). I suspect yesterday was the lowest CET of the month at 12.6c  (max 18.2c; min 7.0c)

 

 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

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Offline ARTzeman  
#123 Posted : 23 September 2014 10:58:34(UTC)
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Met Office Hadley     15.4c.     Anomaly   1.4c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                 15.04c.    Anomaly   1.32c.

N-W                        15.66c     Anomaly   1.97c.

Mount Sorrel            15.09c.    Anomaly   1.39c.

My  Mean                 16.2c.     Anomaly    1.7c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Saint Snow  
#124 Posted : 23 September 2014 13:37:28(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley     15.4c.     Anomaly   1.4c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                 15.04c.    Anomaly   1.32c.

N-W                        15.66c     Anomaly   1.97c.

Mount Sorrel            15.09c.    Anomaly   1.39c.

My  Mean                 16.2c.     Anomaly    1.7c. 

 

Yikes, that's a chunky fall for this late in the month with little discernible change in the overall pattern. May get another drop in tomorrow's figures because last night was again chilly. But the cloud tonight should keep mins up at least. Anything north of 15.1c at the end of the month and I'll be happy.

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Global Warming  
#125 Posted : 23 September 2014 21:43:32(UTC)
Global Warming

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Some fairly big fluctuations expected in the CET over the next few days depending on how clear the skies are and hence how chilly it is at night. Still expecting the CET to finish close to 15.0C although it is now showing signs of possibly dipping towards 14.9C. Given the latest output though I would still expect 15C or above to be honest.

If we do come in at 15.0C for September this will mean that 2014 is still on course for possibly the warmest annual CET on record despite the cold August.

Highest CET means for the first 9 months of the year:

1779 11.68C
1846 11.66C
2014 11.65C (prov.)
1990 11.60C

As has been mentioned elsewhere the first week of October is currently looking very warm indeed potentially. Nothing that unusual about this though and still looks unlikely to be anywhere near as warm as the first week of October in 2011 - although tonight's ECM run would beg to differ.

Edited by user 23 September 2014 21:48:07(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#126 Posted : 24 September 2014 12:24:11(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Late today. Been out on an Amble.

 

Met Office Hadley     15.2c.   Anomaly   1.4c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                 14.99c.  Anomaly   1.27c.

N-W                         15.56c. Anomaly   1.86c.

Mount Sorrel             15.05c  Anomaly    1.35c.

My   Mean                 16.2c.  Anomaly     1.6c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline lanky  
#127 Posted : 25 September 2014 08:31:59(UTC)
lanky

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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Some fairly big fluctuations expected in the CET over the next few days depending on how clear the skies are and hence how chilly it is at night. Still expecting the CET to finish close to 15.0C although it is now showing signs of possibly dipping towards 14.9C. Given the latest output though I would still expect 15C or above to be honest.

If we do come in at 15.0C for September this will mean that 2014 is still on course for possibly the warmest annual CET on record despite the cold August.

Highest CET means for the first 9 months of the year:

1779 11.68C
1846 11.66C
2014 11.65C (prov.)
1990 11.60C

As has been mentioned elsewhere the first week of October is currently looking very warm indeed potentially. Nothing that unusual about this though and still looks unlikely to be anywhere near as warm as the first week of October in 2011 - although tonight's ECM run would beg to differ.

According to the Met Office CET data table http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html we need a CET anomaly of +1.12 from now to the end of the year to beat the all time annual CET record this year (10.82 in 2006)

As the anomaly so far this year is +1.43 according to this table, that looks decidedly do-able - we could of course have a very cold late autumn / early winter and get nowhere near

 

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline ARTzeman  
#128 Posted : 25 September 2014 12:00:08(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Met Office Hadley      15.2c.      Anomaly    1.3c.  Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                  14.86c.    Anomaly    1.14c.

N-W                         15.46c.    Anomaly    1.77c.

Mount Sorrel             14.92c.    Anomaly     1.22c.

My   Mean                 16.0c.     Anomaly      1.5c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline TimS  
#129 Posted : 25 September 2014 17:36:02(UTC)
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Location: Brockley

one more cool day (today) snd then a string of warm days and even warmer nights coming up. this morning was cold in the SE - 6C in London.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#130 Posted : 26 September 2014 07:09:31(UTC)
Global Warming

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It will be touch and go as to whether September finishes up warmer than August. Currently I expect the September CET to finish at 14.93C. The August CET finished at 14.95C.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#131 Posted : 26 September 2014 07:30:29(UTC)
Global Warming

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Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

As we are in with a good chance of a record CET this year I thought it was time to set up a tracker for the annual CET to see how we are doing.

The chart below shows the annual CET tracker from 16 Sept through to the end of the year. I have included all years where the CET finished at 10.50C or above and also years where the CET at the end of Sept, Oct or Nov was in the top handful of years. So for example this includes 1846 (the yellow line) which has the highest CET on record to the end of September but dips well out of contention by the end of the year due to a cold finish.

As of 25 Sept 2014 is in fourth place in the rankings behind 1846, 1990 and also just behind 2003 but just ahead of 1779. 2014 is the white line.

Based on current projections the 2014 CET could be at 11.68C by 30 Sept following a relatively warm final few days of the month. This would leave us in 2nd place at the end of the month just behind 1846. The figures below are based on the average daily CET means (the figures I quoted earlier in the thread were just simple averages of each monthly figure which is less accurate as of course not all months have the same number of days).

1846 11.70C
2014 11.68C prov.
1779 11.67C
1990 11.64C

The top 6 annual CET means for reference (again using daily CET means) are:

2006 10.86C
2011 10.71C
1990 10.66C
1999 10.66C
1949 10.64C
2002 10.62C

2006 was quite a remarkable year because even at 15 Sept it was third coolest of all the years in the chart. This is partly due to the cool first 3 months of the year. By contrast the final 4 months of 2006 were incredibly warm which is why it is currently the warmest year on record. 2011 shows a similar pattern being way down the list at 15 Sept and still way behind even at 15 Nov. But a very warm end to the year pushed it into second place. The point of mentioning this I suppose is that if 2014 also sees a very warm finish to the year then we could easily come in above 11C and possibly even above 11.1C. 

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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#132 Posted : 26 September 2014 07:34:59(UTC)
ARTzeman

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12.4c  For me please. Regardless of the consequences ....wink  In October.....

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#133 Posted : 26 September 2014 11:04:46(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 27,706
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     15.1c.       Anomaly    1.3c.   Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                 14.92c.     Anomaly    1.20c.

N-W                        15.39c.     Anomaly    1.7c.

Mount Sorrel             14.99c.    Anomaly    1.29c.

My    Mean                16.0c.      Anomaly    1.5c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Snow Hoper  
#134 Posted : 26 September 2014 18:02:34(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

It will be touch and go as to whether September finishes up warmer than August. Currently I expect the September CET to finish at 14.93C. The August CET finished at 14.95C

 

 

That would go some way to repairing the damage from last month.

 

 

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline Whether Idle  
#135 Posted : 26 September 2014 18:20:00(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post

There certainly hasn`t been many low minimums here,last night being the lowest at 7.5c,thats the lowest since around mid may. The mean temp here is a whopping 16.6c for this september so far.

It certainly has been one of the longest summers i can recall.

Today is the first time there has been a hint of autumn in the air.

Duplicate here.  Warm sunny and not that cold at night thanks to the warm blanket of the sea.

Another warm week to come.  What a warm year 2014 is proving to be.  The run of warmest years being almost all since 1990 is a very telling statistic.

WI

Edited by user 27 September 2014 05:50:07(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

The Johnson Government had a choice on whether to tackle the virus hard- or let it spread- they've shown they care more for their money than they do for the health and the safety of the British People.
Offline ARTzeman  
#136 Posted : 27 September 2014 10:49:19(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,706
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         15.1c.      Anomaly     1.4c.    Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                     14.87c.    Anomaly     1.15c.

N-W                            15.43c.    Anomaly     1.74c.

Mount Sorrel                14.94c.    Anomaly     1.24c.

My  Mean                     16.0c.     Anomaly      1.5c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#137 Posted : 28 September 2014 08:51:16(UTC)
Global Warming

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Posts: 6,439
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Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

I thought it would be interesting to post up the differences by month this year between the provisional Hadley figures which are published each day and the final figures for each day which are published at the end of the month. Historically there has been a significant downward adjustment to the provisional figures.

This year we see that in the early part of the year the downward adjustment was very small indeed. The figure then increased significantly and peaked in mid summer before starting to tail off again. This is not a pattern I particularly recall from the past. Generally a significant adjustment could occur in any month and we have seen adjustments as high as 0.5C in the past. It will be interesting to see if the adjustments reduce again as we move through Autumn.

For completeness I have also included the Manley CET figures for 2014 as a comparison to the final Hadley data. Generally in recent times Manley has tended to be slightly higher than Hadley and this trend has continued during 2014 with only February going in the other direction. The Manley data can be found at this link: Manley monthly CET data

If we look at the September data so far we see that my calculations suggest the provisional Hadley data is currently running (up to 26th) 0.23C too high overall.

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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#138 Posted : 28 September 2014 09:09:10(UTC)
Global Warming

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What is quite remarkable about 2014 is that not a single month has seen a CET mean close to average. All bar one month have seen an anomaly of more than 1C. This trend has continued in September. The smallest anomaly this year was in May when we were 0.94C above the 1971-2000 mean.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 28 September 2014 09:10:23(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Stormchaser  
#139 Posted : 28 September 2014 09:19:13(UTC)
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The CET's been falling slightly at a time when my local mean has been rising slightly.

The difference in conditions this month has been vast; my local mean sits at 16.12*C. In fact it's hard to comprehend that the CET is sub-15*C right now - though it must be within a chance of finishing more or less at 15*C thanks to the warm final few days.

 

Around here it's been a weird month really, with only one notable spell of rain and a large number of calm, cloudy yet unseasonably warm days. Yesterday took that to the extreme, feeling more like a naff (on account of only a glimmer of sun) but very usable day... in July!

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Offline Global Warming  
#140 Posted : 28 September 2014 09:38:35(UTC)
Global Warming

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Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

The CET's been falling slightly at a time when my local mean has been rising slightly.

The difference in conditions this month has been vast; my local mean sits at 16.12*C. In fact it's hard to comprehend that the CET is sub-15*C right now - though it must be within a chance of finishing more or less at 15*C thanks to the warm final few days.

 

Around here it's been a weird month really, with only one notable spell of rain and a large number of calm, cloudy yet unseasonably warm days. Yesterday took that to the extreme, feeling more like a naff (on account of only a glimmer of sun) but very usable day... in July!

Yes there is quite a contrast around the UK this month. The south and the north are a long way above average whereas central areas have been less warm.

Using 1981-2010 data from Roger Brugge's site http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

Carlisle is 1.5C above normal and Altnaharra is 2.0C above normal.

In the south Boscombe Down is 1.6C above normal and Heathrow 1.5C

However, in the CET area Pershore is only 0.8C above normal and Dishforth (not too far from Stonyhurst) 0.7C above normal.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
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