What do people reckon for next winter

On the bright side it cannot be any worse than last winter

I think it will be a much better winter than last year with frequent cold and snow - just a hunch

Any thoughts - scientific or gut feeling welcome

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Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless.

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The metoffice base their forecast among other things on the atlantic SSTs, it gives an idea of what the NAO is likely to be come the winter. Ofc if the NAO is negative then cold and snow is almost axiomatic (if the AO follows suit).

Current SSTs

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.11.2014.gif

This time last year

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.12.2013.gif

 

What we are looking for is a tripole pattern, i.e Warm in the south, Cold in the mids, Warm in the north. Last year there was no real sign of this pattern at all. This year there is a tiny patch of cold in the mids, and there is warmth in the north. But no warmth in the south. From this alone, an average or mild winter is implied.

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No one knows. There's no remotely proven method for forecasting two seasons away and I find speculation absolutely pointless. It's like giving an opinion on what you think will happen in July 2080. Utterly pointless, but still carry on.

Are we not having an autumn this year?

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Perfectly valid to discuss what you'd like to happen. For me a repeat of last winter would be am absolute dream come true. Statistically unlikely, but we can always hope.

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No one knows. There's no remotely proven method for forecasting two seasons away and I find speculation absolutely pointless. It's like giving an opinion on what you think will happen in July 2080. Utterly pointless, but still carry on.

Are we not having an autumn this year?

I think we're having autumn now...

Have to agree with the City fan, there is no reliable way to do this kind of forecast - you may as well get the seaweed out and hang it on the wall. On the otherhand if we want to talk about what we hope might happen, then that's a different story. On that basis I'd like some good cold spells to try to limit the garden pests for next summer!

Cold .. Frost and fog,, Cold coming off the Atlantic  will make it snow more than the past 4 years. May have more Siberian winds from the east to contend with.. 

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Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless.

 

Like wise WI , was indeed woeful

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Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless.

 

Like wise WI , was indeed woeful

Woeful perhaps, but just look at how my energy bills compared to the previous winter (in white)!

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-0-2982.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-0-3132.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-2-4134.png?12

 

JFF

 

 

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Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless.

 

Like wise WI , was indeed woeful

Woeful perhaps, but just look at how my energy bills compared to the previous winter (in white)!

Irrelevant for me as my two log burners do the job for pence .

But understand what you are saying

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Cold .. Frost and fog,, Cold coming off the Atlantic  will make it snow more than the past 4 years. May have more Siberian winds from the east to contend with.. 

 

If Dec 14 is snowier than Dec 10, then it'd be amazing!!!

 

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-0-2982.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-0-3132.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-2-4134.png?12

 

JFF

 

 

Did you put the colours in with Photoshop, just to cheer yourself up?

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long as winter was better than last year, I.E colder, ice some snow, and NE, E, winds then HAPPY DAYS,

 

The metoffice base their forecast among other things on the atlantic SSTs, it gives an idea of what the NAO is likely to be come the winter. Ofc if the NAO is negative then cold and snow is almost axiomatic (if the AO follows suit).

Current SSTs

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.11.2014.gif

This time last year

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.12.2013.gif

 

What we are looking for is a tripole pattern, i.e Warm in the south, Cold in the mids, Warm in the north. Last year there was no real sign of this pattern at all. This year there is a tiny patch of cold in the mids, and there is warmth in the north. But no warmth in the south. From this alone, an average or mild winter is implied.

Statiscally speaking an avearge winter is the form horse and with solar activity at moderate levels and the SST's  which Gavin highlighted back in May, all pointing to an avearge to mild winter. Then again my old knees are a much better indicator to the coming winter than any predictive model and best guesstimate.

I recorded colder temps last Autumn than the following Winter - that just shows how rubbish Winter was! hopefully this Winter will be better but we have no control over it so just a case of waiting and hoping. Still a long while off meteorologically.

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Do you want an early sneak peek at my Winter 14/15 forecast:?

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You'll find out at the end of November.

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According to the non-solar SLATless antipodean forecasting system:-

Very mild start.   December may well be snow and frost free in most parts.    Ski resorts worried.   Year ends warmest on record.

However a spell of quite cold and snowy weather setting in around end of Jan or first half of Feb 2015 - which could even produce some record lows in one of two spots and/or significant snow falls in places that rarely see much snow.

Overall though, a milder than average winter - despite the late cold snap.

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Are we not having an autumn this year?

We've already had autum once this year.  It was called January February and March ......

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Do you want an early sneak peek at my Winter 14/15 forecast:?

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You'll find out at the end of November.

   YOU BIG TEASE.